North London Derby Stats: Spurs v Arsenal may be closer than you think

Point apiece on Sunday afternoon, chaps?

Andrew Atherley has some very interesting revelations about Sunday's HUGE north London derby... 

Are Arsenal in crisis? Yes, say many football pundits and radio phone-in callers, who will be sharpening their knives again before Sunday's crucial north London derby at Tottenham.

Defeat at White Hart Lane would complete a calamitous fortnight in which the Gunners have been dumped out of the FA Cup by mid-table Championship side Blackburn and seen their odds of progressing to the Champions League quarter-finals drift to 25.024/1 after a 3-1 home defeat by Bayern Munich.

A Tottenham victory on Sunday would leave Arsenal seven points behind their local rivals and with a tough battle on their hands to claim their customary place in next year's Champions League. At the moment Tottenham are 1.68/13 to finish in the top four and Arsenal are 2.0811/10.

And yet, as Arsene Wenger has been fond of saying recently, let's keep a sense of perspective. For a start, the current league standings are not that different to this time last season. Then, as now, Tottenham were third (with 53 points, compared with 51 now) and Arsenal were four points behind (in fourth place). At the end of the season Arsenal finished third while Tottenham had dropped to fourth, a point behind.

So, for all the positive talk about Gareth Bale-inspired Tottenham and the negativity surrounding RVP-less Arsenal, the truth is that their relative positions have barely changed since last season.

Judged on current form in the Premier League, Wenger's critics may be surprised to learn that Arsenal are doing better than Tottenham, whether it's on the popular measure of six-match form (Arsenal rank second only to Manchester United on 13 points, with Tottenham next on 12) or double that number of games (Arsenal also rank second to United on 12-match form, with Tottenham again a point behind in third).

Of course, that doesn't take account of Arsenal's setbacks against Blackburn and Bayern Munich, but nor is Tottenham's FA Cup defeat by Leeds (a Championship side of similar standing to Blackburn) included in those form figures.

That's not to deny Arsenal have problems. For a start, there is a class gap: their only two defeats in their last 12 Premier League games have been against other big-six sides (Manchester City and Chelsea) and then they were outclassed by Bayern Munich.

The class gap is also evident in the mini-league of top-six teams, in which Arsenal are fifth with an average of just 0.71 points per game. And the Gunners' away form against top-half teams is unconvincing (one win out of six).

Tottenham are no better, however. Andre Villas-Boas's side are bottom of the mini-league of top-six teams (with an average of 0.67 points per game) and have won only two out of six at home to top-half teams.
How the teams are ultimately judged will depend on how they perform over the final 11 games of the Premier League campaign, with Sunday's derby a potential turning point.

A draw is a distinct possibility at 3.613/5 given how closely matched the two teams are on form and their difficulties in winning games against the higher-class sides. 

Over 2.5 goals has to be considered too, as 15 out of 22 (68 per cent) big-six clashes have gone over that mark this season. Even more eye-catching is that fact that 12 of the last 13 north London derbies in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 goals, which is 1.748/11 to back on Sunday.

A majority of those last 13 league derbies (seven out of 13) have gone over 3.5 goals, which is 2.789/5 on Sunday's match. 

Recommended Bets
Tottenham v Arsenal draw at 3.613/5
Tottenham v Arsenal over 2.5 goals at 1.748/11