Capital One Cup Final Betting: Swansea to end Bradford's fairytale

Swansea boss Michael Laudrup is doing a terrific job

Swansea City and Bradford City are the surprise contenders to win Sunday's Wembley showpiece, and Kevin Hatchard thinks the League Two side's luck will finally run out against one of the Premier League's most attractive sides...

Swansea City vs Bradford City, Capital One Cup Final, Sun 16:00 BST, Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Swansea 1.42/5, Bradford 9.417/2, the draw 5.24/1

As cup finals go, Swansea City vs Bradford City may not be one of the most glamorous in recent years, but it is surely one of the most romantic. Ten years ago the Swans nearly went out of business, and they narrowly avoided slipping out of the Football League. Now they are an established Premier League club, and they have a golden opportunity to win their first ever major trophy.

Bradford have endured a painful slide down the English football pyramid - they were relegated from the Premier League in 2001, and the Bantams have been stuck in League Two since 2007. This season they have dumped Premier League outfits Wigan, Arsenal and Aston Villa out of this competition, but I suspect beating Swansea at Wembley may prove a bridge too far.

I would never wish to detract from what's been an extraordinary achievement by Bradford, but it's worth analysing their giant-killing efforts. They beat a weakened Wigan side on penalties after a sterling rearguard action. They then overcame an Arsenal team that missed some glaring opportunities and never really got to grips with the physical nature of Bradford's play. Manager Phil Parkinson deserves massive credit for exploiting Aston Villa's weaknesses in the semi-final - three of Bradford's four goals over the two legs came from set-pieces (Villa can't defend corners of free-kicks), and Villa's youngsters were hustled and harried until they crumbled. That said, Villa squandered a hatful of chances in both legs.

Swansea's game is based on ball retention, clever movement and precise attacking thrusts, and on a big Wembley pitch I think Bradford will struggle to contain their opponents. The Bantams' prowess at set-pieces will be somewhat negated by the presence of dominant Swansea defender Ashley Williams, and even though his usual centre-back partner Chico is injured, potential replacements Garry Monk and Kyle Bartley are both decent in the air.

Bradford have profited from poor finishing by their opponents in this cup run, but in Spanish forward Michu they may finally meet their match. The 2million bargain buy from Rayo Vallecano has scored 18 goals in 32 appearances this season, and he is one of the coolest finishers in the Premier League. He is worth a look in either the First Goalscorer or To Score markets.

The Bantams have shown they are capable of rising to the occasion, but it's worth noting they have won just three of their last 14 matches in all competitions. Swansea's recent form is also patchy (just two wins in their last six games), but we can dismiss Sunday's 5-0 defeat at Liverpool, as Swans boss Michael Laudrup rested most of his key players.

Laudrup has made a huge impact since arriving at the Liberty Stadium to replace Brendan Rodgers. He has added more pace to Swansea's attacking play, and has shown on several occasions that he is tactically astute. The perfect example of this was the second leg of the semi-final against Chelsea, which saw the Swans consistently allow the West Londoners to bring the ball out from the back, before frustrating them with a perfectly organised midfield and defence. Laudrup has vast experience from his playing days, and as a manager he has contested three cup finals, winning two of them.

Unlike Arsenal and Aston Villa, Swansea aren't a soft touch, and I can't see them failing to make their superior technical ability count. Swansea's odds of 1.42/5 to win are prohibitive, but you can boost them by backing the Swans -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0811/10. If Swansea grab an early lead, I can see them shredding Bradford on the counter, so backing Laudrup's men to win by at least two goals seems sensible.

It's also worth looking at backing Swansea/Swansea in the HT/FT market at 2.111/10. Swansea have won 13 games this season, and backing Swansea/Swansea has paid out in eight of them.

Recommended Bets

Back Swansea -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0811/10
Back Swansea/Swansea in the HT/FT market at 2.111/10