Tottenham v Arsenal: The red half says back Gunners to win from behind

Bacary Sagna could be key to containing Gareth Bale on Sunday

Arsenal fan and Betfair man James Sutton is feeling positive about this weekend's North London Derby, provided Gareth Bale doesn't play through the middle...

After a breathtaking goal on Monday that would have sickened every Arsenal fan, the subject on everybody's lips ahead of this weekend's North London derby will be Gareth Bale, and believe it or not, that could actually work in Arsenal's favour. It means some of the focus will be taken away from the Gunners' 'calamitous' season thus far, and also that Sky's pre-match highlights reel and pundit's discussion will be all about the rise of the Welsh rocket, rather than the 'catastrophic' demise of Arsene Wenger's side.*

Now sitting in third position in the table and four points ahead of their fiercest rivals, Tottenham are understandably favourites for this encounter at 2.3811/8 (and expect that to shorten). But despite Spurs' recent form, unbeaten in the last ten in the league, they  haven't been putting teams to the sword and have only managed to win by more than one goal on two occasions.

Arsenal's league form isn't actually as bad as you might think, and that perception can be understood given all the recent media hype about Wenger's failures as a manager. They have only lost three of their last 19 in the league, only suffering defeats against Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs, and have managed to get themselves back within reach of a fourth place (and dare I say third place) finish.

I know it seems obvious but Gareth Bale really is going to be the key in this one - however the onus is on AVB to put the key in the right lock. If he plays the Welshman on the left then Arsenal may have a chance of managing him. Wenger will probably play Ramsey or Diaby on the right of midfield with the hope of doubling up on him with Sagna. However, if he plays Bale through the middle then I really do fear for Arsenal. There isn't enough steel in the midfield to contain him, with Arteta also being far too sluggish to stay close when he picks up the ball and makes those bursting runs.

Bale aside, one thing that's for sure is both these teams have a habit of scoring more goals in the second half of games. In addition, no ground has featured fewer first half goals this season that White Hart Lane (10). Having said that, twelve of the last thirteen league games between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals so there are signs that the flood gates will open up in the second half.

All things considered, I fancy it to be a fairly tight first half with perhaps the home side taking a 1-0 lead into the break at 4.57/2. But if that's the case, I then expect Arsenal to come out fighting in the second period, as they did against Chelsea and Liverpool, so there may be some value in backing the Gunners to win from behind when the price becomes available. One things for sure, most of the betting action for this one will be in-play...so get your laptops, mobiles and iPads at the ready and expect fireworks!
 
Recommended Bets

Back 1-0 at half time @ 4.57/2
Back Arsenal to win from behind (look for odds of around 8.07/1)

*Which really is a huge overreaction.