Find Me a 100 Winner: Back class act Casey to bounce back

Paul Casey could be under the betting radar

In this week's column, Paul Krishnamurty recommends following one of golf's forgotten men, who he reckons is on the way back...

Looking back through recent winners of the Honda Classic, this doesn't appear to be fertile territory for backing outsiders. Of the last five winners at PGA National, two were already major champions, while Y E Yang was soon to become one. When Camilo Villegas won, he was among the leading candidates and unrecognisable from the no-hoper currently struggling to save his career. Even 2011 champion Rory Sabbatini was a proven winner, bang in form at the time.

Nevertheless, a strong field headed by Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy means there are plenty of capable candidates within our triple-figure price range, amongst whom one name in particular stands out. Only four years ago, Paul Casey was within the world's top-four and all the rage for the US Masters. A series of injuries put paid to that progress but, while he's still languishing down at 128th in the world rankings, Casey may well be on the way back and therefore under the betting radar.

During the lean years, there were plenty of times when Casey appeared to have lost interest in his career but he has looked a reformed character in recent months. The best indicator of a player's wellbeing can be found in the greens in regulation stats, so it must bode well that Paul has ranked in the top-30 for this discipline on every one of his last eight starts, never finishing worse than 37th during that period.

Those finishing positions would doubtless read much better if he'd been able to get the hang of the greens during the recent Gulf Swing, but these Bermuda putting surfaces will represent a different test. Moreover, one might hope having to sit out last week's WGC Accenture Matchplay - a prestigious event in which he enjoyed a great record at his peak - will mean he's well prepared for this return to a track where he finished fourth on his sole previous visit. 

The trading advice is to stake two units at odds of 120.0119/1, then place two lay orders to bank profit at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1. Just hitting the first would ensure a minimum of eight units profit.

Recommended Bets

Back Paul Casey 2u @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 15.014/1
Place order to lay 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2013 Stats: -25 units