Eastleigh By-Election Betting: Poll-confusion warrants caution

Even a visit from Boris hasn't seemed to help Conservative-hopeful Maria Hutchins in the Eastleigh By-Election

The Liberal Democrats were once a backable price, writes Jack Houghton, but given contradictory poll results, and a confusing mix of local and national electoral factors, the smart move might be to leave Eastleigh alone and focus on the market for the next General Election.

Those who followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice - given out shortly after the market opened - and backed the Liberal Democrats at 1.9520/21 to win the Eastleigh By-Election find themselves in a strong position, with those odds now down to around 1.538/15.

The Liberal Democrat candidate - local councillor Mike Thornton - is reported, according to a Populus poll for The Times, to have a five-point lead going into the by-election, which, if reflected in Thursday's vote, would see him return a similar majority over Conservative challenger Maria Hutchins as that achieved by Thornton's predecessor, Chris Huhne, in the 2010 General Election.

If that predicted lead of Thornton's does materialise, it will be in large part due to his astute, conservative campaigning: distancing himself from Chris Huhne by demanding his predecessor apologises; supporting the building of new homes in the constituency; and avoiding the blunder and bungle that has beset the campaign of the "feisty" Hutchins.

However, this by-election is light on easily-interpretable data. A Survation poll published in the Mail on Sunday this weekend showed the Liberal Democrats four per cent down on the Conservatives, their vote share diminished by a charging UKIP. So it's probably a little unwise to steam into the 1.538/15 on the basis of the polls alone. Those odds may represent value, or they may not, it slightly depends on which poll you believe.

Turnout, though, should be high. The total number of voters in by-elections typically runs at around 60-70 per cent of what you would expect in a General Election, but, according to a Tweet by Michael Crick, "Eastleigh Council say 14,276 postal votes issued, and they've had about 8,500 back so far, so about 11 per cent of voters already voted." That suggests the turnout may be nearly as high in Eastleigh as it was in 2010.

That will give further confidence to Liberal Democrat supporters. Dominant in local and national politics in Eastleigh since the mid-1990s, they are widely regarded as having the best information about local voters, and the more astute local organisation with which to capitalise on that information. And given Thornton's background, he will be well versed in how best to take advantage of both. If the turnout is high, the reckoning goes, the Liberal Democrats will stand more chance of repeating their General Election success.

According to some reports, even those Tories on the campaign are admitting - in private at least - that for all that they may have tried to woo locals with constant visits from the Tory glitterati, they have been woefully under-prepared in organising the boring necessities of a local campaign: they may have had Boris doing a few cameo door-to-doors, but they haven't had enough volunteers stuffing envelopes.

I'm not sure that this is the Coalition-partners-only race that Nick Clegg has allegedly claimed, though. For a start, try as he might to keep the focus of the by-election on local issues, the impeccably-timed allegations of sexual misconduct within the Liberal Democrat hierarchy will not help Thornton's campaign.

It's also worth remembering that, in all except one instance, in every by-election in which the Coalition partners have stood candidates since the last General Election, they have lost voter share. In those 12 by-elections, that loss in voter share is averaging around 10 per cent for both parties. Now, whilst it's dangerous to suggest that by-election results in largely safe Labour seats in industrial centres will have any direct influence on voter behaviour in Eastleigh, I would be nervous about backing either party at the odds available.

UKIP has shown itself more than able to make significant gains in recent by-elections, and with a whopping 14 candidates standing in Eastleigh - further dissipating the 3,000 or so votes that are likely to decide this contest - a cautionary approach is advisable.

This uncertainty, though, does open up potential profit in the market for Most Seats at the next General Election. Currently available at 1.684/6, it is likely Labour will shorten in the market after Thursday's result, a low-risk back-to-lay opportunity if ever there was one.