среда, 27 февраля 2013 г.

Follow The Money: Gizzit a chance

Wincanton

Today's Follow The Money features two backs from Wincanton and a lay at Lingfield

We start at Wincanton and the 14:30 Handicap Hurdle over 2m6f. Fifteen runners line up for what looks a wide open race, with the current market favourite E Street Boy available at 6.05/1. The one for the money, however is course and distance winner Call Me Sir who has slid from a high of 14.25n/a early on to 8.07/1. The selection got stuck in the mud at Ascot a couple of runs back and then fell at Ffos Las when beaten last time out, but we don't have to look too far back to make a case for him. Good wins at Newton Abbot in September and then here in December looked to point to an improving performer. Excuses can be made for his last couple of runs and eased 3lb in the weights, he can regain the winning thread here.

We stay at Wincanton to take in the 16:00 Handicap Hurdle over 2m, where we have seen a big early move for Gizzit who has contracted from a high of around 4.1n/a in to 2.942/1. The gamble was landed on this selection when first of 19 runners at Warwick just five days ago, where he beat the re-opposing Goochypoochyprader with a fair bit in hand. Gizzit has been turned out quickly, with no penalty to deal with here, so is taken to land the spoils quite comfortably again today.

Our lay of the day comes in the 17:10 Lingfield Bumper race. Giveagirlachance has drifted dramatically in the betting from as low as 1.728/11 out to a much fairer 2.427/5.  A course and distance win last time out means she will have to shoulder a penalty, and it could be that she can take that in her stride. However, with a few well-bred types in this field that might just serve up a shock, we take the view that this drift is significant enough to oppose Giveagirlachance today.

Recommended Bets:
Back Call Me Sir @ 8.07/1 14:30 Wincanton 
Back Gizzit @ 2.942/1 16:00 Wincanton 
Lay Giveagirlachance @ 2.427/5 17:10 Lingfield 

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