понедельник, 25 февраля 2013 г.

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Queen For A Day At Plumpton

Rory thinks he has found a dark horse at Plumpton

Rory Delargy has unearthed a very dark horse at Plumpton, and is hoping a step up in trip can see  this point-to-point recruit hit the target in a weak race...

It's not the most sparkling of cards at Plumpton today, but there are winners to be had, and hopefully I've found one whose claims are much clearer than some poor form figures would imply. The horse in question is Southway Queen (16:40), who has achieved very little under Rules, but who has a lowly mark as a result, and several reasons for thinking improvement is in the offing. The mare is by obscure West Country sire Morpeth, and an own-sister to Southway Star, who has won 7 times for trainer Susan Gardner having (like most by the sire) started off with Jimmy Frost. Like her sister, Southway Queen was well held in bumpers for the patient Frost yard and had one fruitless spin over hurdles before moving on, and in the intervening years has been quite successful in points, winning 2 and finishing second 4 times. A belated return to timber this winter has seen her make the requisite appearances to gain a handicap mark, and those runs came over inadequate trips, and without recourse to a hard ride on either occasion. Suitably qualified, she now steps up to 21f and gets the help of a tongue tie for the first time under Rules. Those factors are likely to see considerable improvement, and the shrewd, but underrated Gardner could see boost an already healthy 17% strike-rate in handicaps over recent years.

The main danger, to my eyes at least, is topweight Midnight Belle, who travelled notably well before failing to stay 3m under a huge weight at Taunton last time. The winner of that contest, Tarabela, followed up at Towcester yesterday, and it would be best to mark that performance up. Lady of Geneva kept on stoutly in a 3m handicap at Huntingdon last time, and may do better, but she clearly lacks pace, and this sharp track and drop in trip aren't sure to suit.

One who looks sure to be suited by the nature of the Plumpton circuit, and indeed by a move away from heavy ground is Tornado In Milan, who runs in the 2m handicap hurdle at 15:10. Evan Williams' Irish import looked a good prospect on his bumper debut for Eoin Doyle, but his keen nature has prevented him from building on that promise, for all he scored on his UK debut. He's been hinting at better in recent starts, though, and a third to the much-vaunted Mr Mole at Taunton last time represented his best effort over hurdles. With runner-up Home Run going close next time, and fourth-placed Marie des Anges bolting up over fences, the form looks solid. That came in a hood, which is retained in a bid to keep this excitable sort settled, and Tornado In Milan is capable of running these ragged if ridden aggressively, which is admittedly not usually the Paul Moloney way. 

Of the opposition, Star of Massini is still a maiden, and may prove flattered by getting the run of things at Kempton last time, while it would be dangerous to assume that Right Stuff was really back in the groove when winning a Flat claimer at Lingfield last time in which sole serious opponent La Estrella wasn't seen to best effect. Brody Bleu is interesting on handicap bow for rookie handler Robert Walford, but the merit  of his easy point win a year ago is hard to gauge (to put it kindly), and a long absence is hardly cause for optimism.

Recommendations:
Both at Plumpton

Back Southway Queen in the 16:40 @ 8.615/2 (NAP)
Back Tornado In Milan in the 15:10 @ 4.3100/30 (NB)

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

Комментариев нет:

Отправить комментарий