Fulham v Stoke: Expect leaky defences to come out on top

Will Martin Jol be smiling again come Saturday evening?

It's a clash of football philosophies in Saturday's early kick-off, as Martin Jol's Fulham host Tony Pulis' Stoke City. Dan Fitch thinks that the one thing that both teams have in common is a tendency to concede goals.

Fulham v Stoke
Saturday, KO 12:45, Live on Sky Sports 1

At this time of the season, when we roughly know who is fighting relegation and which teams have something to aim for at the top, it's pretty rare to find a televised match between two teams mired in mid-table.

Stoke are tenth, while Fulham sit only slightly lower in twelfth. At a push you could make an argument that Martin Jol's side are not yet clear of relegation worries, but you'd struggle to find anyone to believe you. So what does this game have to offer?

I think it will have two things going for it. The first is a true clash of footballing styles, as Fulham's pretty boys face Stoke's long-ball assault. The second should be an abundance of goals.

Fulham's clean sheet last week against Norwich was their first in 14 games and it came against a side that keep it tight at the back, but struggle to find the net.

Meanwhile, Stoke's defence has been somewhat porous ever since people started lauding it as one of the best in Europe. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 matches, conceding three against Southampton, Manchester City and Swansea, and four at home to Chelsea.

Therefore the 1.8910/11 on offer for Both teams to Score seems a safe bet and the 2.226/5 for Over 2.5 Goals screams value.

Seven of Stoke's last eight Premier League games have broken the 2.5 goals barrier, while nine of Fulham's 13 home games have featured three or more goals. Statistically it makes no sense for under 2.5 goals to be favourite and when that's the case you lump on.

Predicting the result is a much more difficult affair. It is perhaps surprising that Fulham aren't struggling at the bottom of the table, after a shocking run of form that has seem them win just twice in their last 18 Premier League outings. 

So a Stoke win then? Hold your horses, because Stoke's 2-1 home win against Reading was their first after six games without a victory. Go further back and you find that Stoke have won only two of their last 11 Premier League matches.

In instances when you find two sides in such lousy form, the draw seems a safe retreating spot. This is especially true when the game involves Stoke, who along with Everton, have drawn more games than anyone else this season (12). The price of the draw is 3.412/5, with Fulham at 2.226/5 and Stoke at 3.8514/5.

If you absolutely insist that I nail down a likely winner, then I'd go for Fulham. Stoke have won only once on the road this season, but with their propensity for snatching a draw, I'd have to insist on taking the cowardly option of backing Fulham at 1.564/7 in the Draw No Bet market.

When it comes to likely scorers, Fulham will be hoping that Dimitar Berbatov finds the net, as Opta have helpfully pointed out that they have yet to lose when the Bulgarian scores. Berbatov is 2.915/8 to score at any time.

For Stoke, Peter Crouch is the favourite at 3.259/4, but I'd be more inclined to go with Jonathan Walters at 4.03/1, as he always starts and takes the penalties. However, this ultimately might be a market to avoid, as neither side has what you would describe as a prolific scorer in their ranks.

Recommended Bets

Back The Draw @ 3.412/5
Back Both teams to Score @ 1.8910/11