воскресенье, 3 февраля 2013 г.

African Cup of Nations Tips: Ivory Coast set to storm through to semis

Didier Drogba scored in his nation's 2-2 draw against Algeria

James Eastham expects the tournament favourites to make it through to the last four with few problems.

Ivory Coast v Nigeria (Sun)
Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 15:00 GMT, Match Odds: Ivory Coast 1.8910/11, Nigeria 5.24/1, The Draw 3.412/5
The pressure is on Ivory Coast to make up for losing in the final last year by finally getting their hands on the trophy and they should move a step closer to that goal.

After a 2-1 opening-game win over Togo, The Elephants saw off Tunisia 3-0 before drawing 2-2 in a clash with Algeria that didn't matter because they had already won the group. There was enough focus and quality in Ivory Coast's performance to justify their status as favourites to reach the last four.

Nigeria have been less convincing. They drew 1-1 against Burkina Faso in their opening game before recording another 1-1 draw in their second game against Zambia. The Super Eagles needed a brace from Victor Moses in the final 15 minutes of their last group game against Ethiopia to clinch a place in the last eight.

It's Ivory Coast to go through for me, although their odds to win in 90 minutes (see above) or to qualify (1.412/5) will hold little appeal for most bettors. Instead I would look at 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at 2.35/4 or Over 2.5 Goals at 2.6413/8. 

Both teams have scored in four of six games involving these two sides at the finals, with all three Ivory Coast matches having over 2.5 goals. It's also worth noting Ivory Coast scored early in the two games that mattered - in the eighth minute against Togo and the 21st minute against Tunisia.
Should Ivory Coast get an early goal here, the game should open up, with chances at both ends.

Burkina Faso v Togo (Sun)
Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 18:30 GMT, Match Odds: Burkina Faso 2.789/5, Togo 2.982/1, The Draw 3.1511/5
There is very little between these sides based on what we saw in the first round.

Burkina Faso was a 6.25/1 for us as they topped Group C, as we predicted before the tournament kicked-off. They drew 1-1 against Nigeria, thumped Ethiopia 4-0 and earned the point they needed against Zambia (0-0) in their final match.

Togo surprised many observers with some good opening-round performances. After conceding a late winner against Ivory Coast (1-2) in their first match they beat Algeria (2-0) before clinching their last-eight place with a 1-1 draw against Tunisia.

The potentially crucial factor in this tie is the absence of Burkina Faso's star player Alain Traore (thigh injury). With the Lorient player in the side, they scored five times, Traore scoring three goals, Without him, against Zambia, they failed to find the net.

That's why I would make Togo narrow favourites to go through. It should be a close game but I would rather be on Togo -0 Asian Handicap at odds-against than Burkina Faso -0 Asian Handicap odds-on.

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Ivory Coast v Nigeria Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.6413/8
Togo -0 Asian Handicap v Burkina Faso @ 2.05n/a

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