Stephen Gallacher, three clear in Dubai
Scotland's Stephen Gallacher has put daylight between himself and the field at the Dubai Desert Classic but can he convert his three-shot third round lead? Our man's not so sure....
16:30 - February 2, 2013
We may only be halfway through the WM Phoenix Open but Phil Mickelson could have arguably put the event beyond anyone else's reach already. Matched at a low of just 1.351/3, he held a six-shot lead playing the last hole yesterday but by making double-bogey, he may have left the door ajar, albeit only slightly.
Lefty leads Bill Haas by four and Keegan Bradley and Brandt Snedeker by five and the leaderboard conjures up memories of last year's Northern Trust Open when Haas got the better of Mickelson and Bradley in a playoff.
It's a high-class chasing pack but Mickelson is four from four when leading by at least three strokes over the last ten years and at 1.84/5, he's not a stingy price.
As already stressed at (too much) length, I'm pretty fed-up at not having backed Lefty from the off and I'm going to leave the event alone and take the night off, although I have had one tiny bet, on Ryan Moore, who trails by seven. He's far enough back to freewheel today and he was one of many I considered closely before the off.
With a round to go at the Dubai Desert Classic, we've another odds-on shot to ponder in Stephen Gallacher, who shot an extremely impressive ten under-par 62 in round three today and now leads by three, over day one leader and in-running wager, Richard Sterne.
As pointed out brilliantly by Simon Gale on Tuesday in the comments section of the preview, Gallacher ticked the boxes nicely before the off but I have no regrets about leaving him out and I'm taking him on tomorrow.
Gallacher has played in 397 European Tour events to date and so far he's won just once. Though it's worth pointing out, the main reason for such a low tally is his typically woefully poor putting as much as anything else. He averages in excess of 30 putts per round every year but he's having no problems with the flat-stick this week - he needed just 24 on Thursday, 26 on Friday and 24 again today and unsurprisingly, he tops the putting stats this week.
He won't mind the forecast windy weather tomorrow but then again, nor will any of his closest rivals but if past performances are anything to go on, he may slow-up a bit now that he's right in the thick of it.
Gallacher has never actually led after 54 holes on the European Tour before so we're in the dark to a certain extent but he's been within three of the lead 16 times, converting just that once - at the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2004.
Given how hard it is to back-up a really low round and given that he's only won just the once I'm happy to take him on. Rather than lay the 1.674/6, as I've already got Sterne onside, I've now also backed Thorbjorn Olesen at 9.617/2 and Jeev Milkha Singh at 50.049/1.
If you don't want to lay out much but want a fun bet to watch in the morning, I'd recommend Singh, who trails by seven. That sounds like a lot of shots to make up but if the front two mess around he'll be right there. Singh won the Scottish Open from off the pace in windy conditions last year and this might just be set up nicely for the amiable Indian.
19:35 - February 1, 2013
The weather didn't have the dramatic affect on the Dubai Desert Classic that I thought it might. I fancied Thursday's early starters would have a big advantage but as it transpired, on average, they shot just 0.74 strokes better than those drawn late-early. So they did have the better of it, but not by as much as I thought.
At the halfway stage, Richard Sterne, on -12 and trading at 8.27/1, leads by one over Thorbjorn Olesen 6.25/1, Stephen Gallacher 12.011/1, and Tommy Fleetwood 21.020/1, and by two over Scotland's Chris Doak 50.049/1 and promising youngsters, Andreas Harto 55.054/1 and Maximilian Kieffer 70.069/1.
With the exception of Alvaro Quiros, who came from fully eight shots back through 36 holes in 2010, we have to go back ten years before we find a winner (Robert Jan Derksen) that was more than two shots adrift at halfway, suggesting the above mentioned are the ones to concentrate on but with the likes of Sergio Garcia, three off the lead, and Paul Casey, Thongchai Jaidee, and last week's winner, Chris Wood, all within four, we have ourselves an extremely tight market still.
I'm very tempted to play Olesen, especially with a windy day forecast for Sunday, but I'm going to hold off for now. With 19 players within four shots it looks wide open and besides, as highlighted in the preview, I still think opportunities will present themselves on Sunday. I will be watching him closely tomorrow though, and if I do make a move, it'll probably be on him.
The leaders tee-off at 8.45am and it's live on Sky from 9.00am.
Over in the States, at the WM Phoenix Open, Angel Cabrera, Keegan Bradley and John Rollins have all drawn alongside Phil Mickelson, who has stated his second round. That one's on at Sky at 9.00pm.
11:15 - February 1, 2013
It's fair to say that things haven't quite panned-out as I'd have liked them to have done over the last 24 hours. They're still playing round two at the Dubai Desert Classic but the morning was clearly not as brutally difficult as the weather forecast had suggested it would be and one of my in-running trades, Manny Manassero appears to know I'm on - he's one of the very few to be over par today, but the main reason for being at a low ebb this morning, is that man Phil Mickelson.
Before yesterday, the big story in the world of golf this week had been Vijay Singh's deer antler spray habit but Phil Mickelson did the big Fijian a favour by diverting the world's attention when he came this close to shooting 59 at the WM Phoenix Open.
Regular readers will know I'm a huge Lefty fan and they'll probably be wondering why I haven't backed him this week, having done so the last two weeks. Well, it's a question I've been asking myself, repeatedly! The truth is, I very nearly did back him and I'm furious with myself for not doing so but here's why I didn't.
Firstly, I'm sorry to say I was influenced in some small part by a comment made on my blog last week, when a chap named Paul wrote this.
"Picking Phil every time he tee's it up is getting to predictable,now you are doubling you wager on him,Why.It's ok having a favourite player and backing him for a interest but your looking for any reason and trying to convince the readers of this blog that it's a smart play."
I received very similar, perfectly understandable, comments this time last year but thankfully I stuck to my guns then and was rewarded when Phil won next week's event, the AT & T National. His record at this time of year has been phenomenal over the years and indeed, if he wins this week, it will be his third victory in Phoenix. So why aren't I on! I can't cowardly just blame Paul, not when there were a number of reasons for his omission...
I was disappointed by his performance last week and in particular, his first round. I missed the big early prices, matched on Sunday and Monday. I wrote last week how badly Lefty drifts each week on a Wednesday and was waiting for said drift but unfortunately, it simply didn't materialise this week. I did wonder whether Old Father Time was taking its toll and finally, I thought if I did want to get on, I could always do so in-running.
So why aren't I on in-running? This tale of woe does actually get worse! I did back him in-running, at an average of 8.615/2, but when he missed form six feet for birdie on the 15th hole, his sixth of the round, I decided to lay the wager back and see how he fared on the 16th.
How did he fare on the 16th? He drained his birdie from 16 feet and the rest, as they say, is history. Suffice to say it's a good job I don't have a cat.
In the cold light of the next day, I can be slightly more philosophical about it all, or should that be Philosophical, but I do feel miffed. I'm going to let the event roll for now and see what happens today. Lefty leads by four over a bunch of five and he now trades at just 3.39/4. If he carries on as he did yesterday the rest won't see him for Arizona desert dust but the stats are against him. The last first round leader to win was Tom Lehman in 2000.
I'll be back later with a look at the Dubai Desert Classic at the close of play.
11:45 - January 31, 2013
There really should be a specific word for that desperately disappointing feeling you get when you first look at a leaderboard on a Thursday morning, only to see that your pre-event picks have spectacularly underperformed.
What made it even more irritating today, was that I knew that my three at the Dubai Desert Classic, Shane Lowry, Ben Curtis and Berndt Wiesberger all had the best of the draw, and not one of them had capitalised on it. There was no time to sulk though, the event was already taking shape and one man, Richard Sterne, was shaping it...
The diminutive South African has had more than his fair share of injuries and he wasn't on my radar this week but I've got him onside now. And I've also already backed Matteo Manassero.
The afternoon starters are trying their best to close in on the early starters and Alex Noren is catching the eye but even if he keeps going and gets close to Sterne and co, the draw looks set to scupper his chances. It's a dangerous game, putting too much faith in the weather forecast but if it's correct and if it doesn't change between now and tomorrow, those playing now and therefore out early tomorrow, look to be considerably disadvantaged.
With the wind due to blow at up to around 20 mph, with gusts getting close to 30mph, tomorrow morning, before dropping again in the afternoon, concentrating on those safely in the house now and not due to start until the worst of the weather has passed by tomorrow, makes plenty of sense.
Although I managed to get Sterne onside at an average of 17.016/1 this morning, and I'm happy to keep that wager for now, I'm not convinced he's the man to beat. Four of the last eight winners were all in front after round one, so that bodes well for Sterne, but he's opened up with a round in the 60's in each of his last five visits to the Emirates and on the last four occasions he didn't break 70 in any round after. Not such a good sign.
Lee Westwood and a resurgent Paul Casey are right up there, as are Scott Jamieson and Stephen Gallagher (highlighted brilliantly by Simon in the comments section of the preview) but the one I like is Manassero.
Westwood has a lot of new kit in the bag this week and whilst he's started well, can he trust it all under the cosh? Casey hasn't convinced in-contention since returning from injury and I can't see why he's so much shorter than Manassero, on the same score. Jamieson likes it here and looks to be back in form but he was poor with a five-stroke lead in Durban and I'm happy to leave him out at the price, whilst Gallagher is never one to trust in the mix.
Of course, the forecast could change considerably but if stays like it is, I can see those starting out later tomorrow having a big advantage. We'll see.
They've not started at the WM Phoenix Open yet and I've worked very hard at not adding to the portfolio but failed. Those to the fore (Rickie Fowler, Brandt Snedeker, Nick Watney and Martin Kaymer in particular) look short to me and as a result, there seems an awful lot of value further down the list.
I've pressed my Mark Wilson wager and I've also added Y.E Yang at 170.0169/1. Hopefully I can resist until the off now but if I do add any more, I'll be sure to post them here.
Dubai Desert Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Ben Curtis @ 70.069/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ an average of 70.069/1
Shane Lowry @ 75.074/1
In-Play Bets
Richard Sterne @ 17.016/1
Matteo Manassero @ 21.020/1
Thorbjorn Olesen @ 9.617/2
Jeev Milkha Singh @ 50.049/1
WM Phoenix Open Pre-Event Selections:
Jonas Blixt @ 120.0119/1
Ben Crane @ 150.0149/1
Charley Hoffman @ 160.0159/1
Y.E Yang @ 170.0169/1 - added after the preview was posted
Mark Wilson @ 170.0169/1 @ again @ 200.0199/1
Graham DeLaet @ 190.0189/1
In-Play Bet
Ryan Moore @ 80.079/1
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
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