Can Obama win over these Floridians?
Eliot Pollack discusses the latest news from the US Presidential campaign and explains why he believes the President could be the bet down in the sunshine state...
When there is no real news to report, polls fill the void. The last couple of days have understandably been low-key for campaigning (but expect an enormous surge over the weekend), so it has been the numbers that have been the focus of the nation's attention.
And here are the headlines:
* After a dip following his somnambulist efforts in that first debate, Obama has regained his 6-8 pt lead on Mitt Romney amongst the ladies (at least according to yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post poll.)
* Of course, polls can be designed to tell you what you want to hear. This year, PPP (the Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling) and Rasmussen (owned by a Republican) are saying totally different things. PPP has Obama ahead in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. Rasmussen has Romney leading in all those states. They can't both be right. Where's that pinch of salt I ordered?
Along with the polls, Sandy still leads the news bulletins. There has been fierce blogosphere (I know, I know) speculation surrounding the motives behind Chris Christie's exuberant praise for Obama's handling of the storm, (in tune with a nation as the polls indicate that 4/5 of Americans consider it a job well done, and even 2/3 of Republicans are acknowledging that the President dealt with it well.)
A Romney defeat on Tuesday would spell the end of his political career, and place Christie in poll position for 2016, possibly in a very winnable battle against Hilary Clinton.
Finally, it would be wrong not to consider how Sandy will affect the race. The latest analysis suggests that the big old storm has now dragged Florida into play. A state which naturally pricks its ears up when the weather turns, now has Obama at 2.588/5, and that is our bet of the day.
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