US Election Daily Update: Four more years?

Eliot is backing four more years - are you?

It's election day in American and Eliot Pollack has the final report from the campaign as the people go to the polls. Will it be four more years for Obama or are can Romney upset the odds?

The final rallies are done with, posters lie abandoned, stump speeches now forgotten, and it is time for the people to decide. In around 12 hours time, the world will find out if the good folk of the United States have opted to stick or twist, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. Either way, one lot of millionaire activists somewhere in America, will have wasted a hell of a lot of money.

The challenger finished off his campaign last night with a rally in New Hampshire (where he is 3.052/1 to win the state.) And whilst the President might have Jay-Z and Springsteen on hand, Romney could call upon a former beau of Pamela Anderson, Kid Rock no less, to warm up the Republican throng.

As for Obama, he held his final ever career rally as a candidate in front of 20,000 in Iowa, the place where it all began for him in 2008, and a state he now appears to be nailed on to win again.

As the gap to polling day has got narrower, so has the price on the President. And it isn't just the odds in his favour. The notorious Nate Silver at the NYT (he is to US election stats what John Motson is to FA Cup history,) is predicting a 92% chance of an Obama victory. Taking that number into account, 1.24 remains value.

Ultimately, Mitt Romney's lack of genuine charisma, and Obama's record on bin Laden, and withdrawing from Iraq should be enough to take him over the line. This may be one US Presidential Debate where 'the economy, stupid' is no guideline at all. We suspect Obama won't win anywhere he didn't take in 2008, and will probably lose Indiana and North Carolina. But he will be back in the White House for four more years.