HSBC Champions Trophy Tips: Mission Hills looks ideal for under-rated South Africans

Is Branden Grace the most under-rated man in golf?

We all have our favourite players, but can the natural bias of commentators and punters distort the market? Paul Krishnamurty argues there's money to be made backing high-class South Africans who are regularly under-rated compared to leading Europeans and Americans.

Throughout the past two decades, it has repeatedly struck me that both betting markets and TV coverage are biased against players from outside Europe or the USA. The initial object of my ire was the length of time it took for Ernie Els to receive his just status. Despite already winning the same major three years previously, plus numerous other worldwide titles, Ernie was a 28/1 (pre-Betfair) chance to win the 1997 US Open. Most memorably, I can recall Els barely featuring in BBC coverage of a Volvo PGA at Wentworth despite spending the entire weekend bang in contention. The reason then was that the other challengers were British stars Colin Montgomerie, Ian Woosnam and Darren Clarke. All great players for sure, but history will surely judge Ernie as superior.

Next it was Vijay Singh, who was virtually guaranteed to start at much bigger odds than other, less prolific, less consistent, players until he had proved his first major title wasn't a fluke. Nowadays, Asian stars like KJ Choi and Y E Yang always seem to catch the eye at better odds than candidates with similar claims. Such bias is to some extent inevitable. Commentators often display ignorance of other tours, while punters inevitably tend to favour the most famous players, who in turn tend to be from their own country or likelier to feature in coverage.

As punters, we should see this as an opportunity. Ernie of course eventually became a genuine superstar and therefore likelier to be underpriced than overpriced, but for several years he represented a betting goldmine. Backing the Big Easy against either Colin Montgomerie or Phil Mickelson in matchbets, on courses where Els clearly had the upper hand, proved a particularly lucrative strategy. In fact, you won't have gone far wrong loyally backing all the leading South Africans over the past decade.

Almost every top-class South African has won a major. Apart from Els and Goosen's six titles, Trevor Immelman, Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel all became major champions before the age of 30, all at enormous pre-tournament odds. The only other genuinely world-class South African from this era is Tim Clark, who has been second in a Masters and won the 'Fifth Major' at Sawgrass.

Despite such unarguable pedigree, their best young prospects barely merit a headline. If Branden Grace, for example, were British, he would be a household name already. Just 24 years old, Grace has won four times this year, including three on the Race to Dubai. That's three more worldwide titles this year than Lee Westwood and four more than Ian Poulter or Graeme McDowell. Yet despite winning twice in his last three starts, Grace is a 65.064/1 chance for this week's WGC-HSBC Champions Trophy.

While it is asking much of Grace to win again so soon, he simply cannot be ignored at this price. He's already won in China and by winning the Dunhill Links, demonstrated the sort of ball-striking skills that one would expect to pay dividends around a Mission Hills layout described as having Aussie sand-belt characteristics. Anyone prepared to follow him blindly week in, week out over the next few years can confidently expect to turn a profit.

Likewise, George Coetzee has an equally bright future and looks superb value this week at the same 65.064/1 odds. Birdie-machine Coetzee will love this week's low scoring test and is in exemplary form, finishing top-six on his last three starts# He simply has to break through soon and again, should reward long-term support.

Lastly, though Oosthuizen is afforded more respect by layers, the former Open champion looks plenty big enough at 23.022/1. His form over the summer would rival anyone apart from Rory McIlroy, (absent this week), registering top-sixes on five of his last nine starts. Moreover, his greens in regulation stats during those nine events have been outstanding, ranking in the top-ten seven times and top-two thrice. Those are the numbers of a winner-in-waiting.

Let's try the following staking plan on this South African trio. Their combined odds equate to around 11.010/1, so by placing a lay order on each of them at 4.03/1, we can more than double our stake if just one of them shortens to the target, whilst still leaving substantial extra profit should they win.

Recommended Bets

Back Louis Oosthuizen 6u @ 23.022/1
Back George Coetzee 2u @ 65.064/1
Back Branden Grace 2u @ 65.064/1

Place order to lay each player 25u @ 4.03/1