World Cup 2014: Serbia on an upward curve under Mihajlovic

Serbia coach Sinisa Mihajlovic

Jonathan Wilson tells us about the strict approach adopted by new Serbia coach Sinisa Mihajlovic and gives us his recommended bet ahead of the Group A clash with Belgium...

The Serbian cycle is well-established. Qualify impressively for a World Cup, get everybody's hopes up, fail miserably, get rid of the coach in a haze of recrimination, spend two years squabbling, fail to qualify for the European championship and then clear the air ready for the next World Cup campaign.

We're currently in the optimistic World Cup qualification upswing and there is a definite mood of expectancy about Belgrade ahead of Friday's game against Belgium (Serbia 2.68/5 to win; Belgium 3.02/1, Draw 3.412/5), so much so that Sinisa Mihajlovic, after spending his early weeks in the job telling everybody Serbia weren't as bad as they feared, has taken to telling everybody that Serbia aren't as good as everybody is saying - although they remain 3.55n/a third favourites to top the group, behind Belgium (2.447/5) and Croatia (2.6413/8).

The former Inter and Sampdoria full-back took charge in May and immediately set about improving the squad's sense of togetherness. Radomir Antic, who took the team to the last World Cup, did that by creating a family atmosphere, inviting back old players for farewell matches and generally trying to make players feel that playing for Serbia was an honour with having.

Mihajlovic has taken a different approach. He has looked to youth and has imposed a rigid discipline. Togetherness is everything. Players are forced to sing the national anthem, something that has led to the 20-year-old Fiorentina forward Adem Ljajic being expelled from the squad in May. He said he had "personal reasons" for refusing to join in and insisted, "I love Serbia but I have to respect my beliefs," something that was widely taken as a reference to his Muslim faith. The anthem calls on the "God of Justice" to "strengthen... the Serbian race".

The relationship between religious belief and patriotism couched in religious terminology is, of course, hugely complex but in this case it is probably not the key issue. Mihajlovic wants control, wants to prevent the cliques that have ruined previous squads, emerging. Ljajic is a difficult character as was demonstrated when, having been substituted in a club game, he riled the Fiorentina coach Delio Rossi sufficiently that he punched him in the dugout. A flashpoint was always likely; it's just that here it was the issue of the anthem, which brings with it a huge amount of cultural freight.

Certainly in terms of results nobody is questioning Mihajlovic. He experimented and chopped and changed his squad in friendlies but, after starting the qualifiers with a 0-0 draw away to Scotland, the wisdom of his method became clear with a 6-1 win over Wales. Poor as Wales were that night, Serbia were superb, playing with pace and verve, this passing and intermovement producing six differentgoalscorers.

The suggestion is that Serbia may opt for something a little more direct against Belgium. The Partizan striker Marko Scepovic is one of three new caps in the Serbia squad alongside the forwards Nenad Krsticic of Sampdoria and Alen Stevanovic of Torino. "Krsticic and Stevanovic are versatile players who deserve to be here with impressive performances for their clubs and I also have a lot of faith in Scepovic, who is a lethal finisher and very good at holding the ball," Mihajlovic explained. "Belgium will be a mountain to climb with 14 players playing in the Premier League but our 6-1 win over Wales, when we moved well and kept the ball on the ground, has shown us the way how to play."

After winning 2-0 against a Wales side reduced to 10 men by the dismissal of James Collins in their first qualifier, Belgium then drew at home against Croatia in their second. They will be without Marouane Fellaini, who has a knee injury but given he didn't start against Croatia, that shouldn't be too much of blow. Perhaps, for an away game against a passing team, he would have been selected to try to harry Serbia in possession. As it is, a central triangle of Steven Defour, Mousa Dembele and Axel Witsel is more than adequate.

Serbia's demolition of Wales aside, for both teams, the recent issue has been converting possession into goals: 1.695/7 on Under 2.5 Goals isn't generous, so perhaps the best value is in backing Serbia to win 1-0 at 7.613/2, 2-0 at 14.013/1 and 2-1 at 10.5n/a in the Correct Score market.

Recommended Bet:

Back 1-0 @ 7.613/2, 2-0 @ 14.013/1 & 2-1 @ 10.5n/a Correct Scores