US Presidential Election: Romney revives campaign with impressive debate

Romney got his campaign back on track and livened up the betting
Last night saw the first TV debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, where a win for the latter has sparked significant market moves on Betfair. Paul Krishnamurty gives his verdict...
Going into last night's opening Presidential debate, the general consensus was that Mitt Romney was in last chance saloon, one gaffe away from a humiliating electoral thrashing. Not only did the challenger take that chance by winning the debate in the eyes of most commentators, but Romney has also livened up what appeared to heading towards a one-sided contest. Betfair markets responded by significantly easing Obama's odds to 1.364/11, while Romney is now 3.814/5 to become President.
Compared to recent Presidential debates, especially those involving George W Bush, this was an impressively highbrow discussion. Both men laid out their starkly different visions and philosophies, while arguing in detail about policy. As seen to some extent during the Republican primary debates, Romney thrives in this format, where his ability to appear serious and well-informed outweighs a lack of charisma. His assaults on Obama's economic record were packed with damaging statistics, as were relentless boasts about his own record as the Governor of Massachusetts. It was the first moment of this campaign where Romney actually looked and sounded like a plausible President.
In contrast, Obama came across as rather tired and chose not to go for the jugular. There was no mention of Romney's infamous '47 percent' comments, although we will surely hear about them before the debates were over. Instead, the President defended his record, reminded the country of his appalling inheritance and repeatedly pressed Romney for his lack of detailed policy solutions. Predictably, Obama sought to contrast the successful economic ideas of himself and Bill Clinton, versus the 'failed, top-down economics' of Republicans like Bush.
We will need a few days to measure any polling effect, but it would be dangerous to assume last night was really a gamechanger. Romney certainly improved his personal standing and stopped the rot, but didn't land anything like a killer blow. Given that both sides staunchly reject their opponents analysis, statistics, values and versions of history, most voters will probably just believe their preferred candidate. Polling experts believe over 90% have effectively made their minds up.
Moreover, this is only the beginning of a process, with two more debates to come. Experienced political punters may recall John Kerry bossing the first debate in 2004 and receiving a significant poll bounce, only to lose when it mattered. Tactically, last night wasn't a disaster for Obama. He avoided looking complacent or presumptive about re-election. The last thing he needs is for Democrat voters to assume an easy victory and fail to turn up at polling stations. He retains a powerful campaign narrative and the longer he attacks Romney's vagueness, the more Republicans will come under pressure to provide detail.
Nevertheless, this is a much tighter betting heat than it was 24 hours ago. Republicans have a spring in their step while Democrats have been warned about complacency. The two candidates will next square up on October 16th in New York, in what promises to be a fascinating rematch. Beforehand, next Thursday in Kentucky, we have the Vice-Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan.