UK Politics: Miliband the winner in Party Conference speeches

Ed Miliband delivers a brilliant speech

Labour Party are in the driving seat to win an overall majority following a strong party conference performance says Mike Robb...

It was a tough task for David Cameron.

Last week in Manchester Ed Miliband delivered a sensational piece of oratory. I, nor many others, can recall any specific issue he spoke about, but that he spoke for an hour and six minutes without notes or autocue served its purpose. He became a credible choice for voters in 2015.

There is no doubt in my mind that we could look back on these last 10 days in May 2015 and see them as the turning point. There are undoubtedly millions of people around this country who strongly disagree with the approach the Conservative Party has taken (let's leave the Lib Dems out of this for a while, as they are very much a side point when we come to talking about the most seats or overall majority markets), but who equally have always said they couldn't see themselves voting for Ed Miliband because he is an uncharismatic policy wonk who comes across slightly lightweight on TV. No longer.

As a result, David Cameron's speech today was a toughie. The best case scenario was probably not too far from what he delivered - a good, solid speech, addressing core criticisms and articulating some sort of vision for his party. This was a speech for the aspirational - a Blairite concept and one that has been trailed all week up in Birmingham.

But ultimately it is a speech that changes nothing. It was never going to, not in the same way Ed Miliband's oratory marked a complete dial change last week. Miliband is now certainly credible in the eyes of the public, and Cameron no less credible than he was before getting on stage this morning. But then again, what more could the Prime Minister have done?

And, for me, Cameron gets the award for the best line when he said, "Labour is the party of One Notion: borrow", in homage to the Labour leader's assault on what is seen as a traditionally Conservative value of One Nationism, something that was much-discussed in the bars in Birmingham.

In betting terms there has been almost no change in the Betfair markets following Cameron's speech. Labour are 2.6413/8 to win a majority at the next election; another Hung Parliament is at 2.6813/8; and a Conservative Majority is third in the betting at 3.7511/4.

Reflecting on all three party conferences, and given the wider environment, the 2.6413/8 on Labour to win a majority could look a steal this time next year. The economic outlook is bleak, as confirmed by figures released by the IMF yesterday cutting growth forecasts to negative 0.4%, down from positive 0.2%, and coupled with the fact that the sharp end of the cuts will hit in April next year we have a recipe for significant decline in Tory chances of re-election.

But perhaps the most interesting market post party conferences is that on Party Leaders at the next election, where the favoured outcome is for Nick Clegg NOT to lead the Lib Dems into it, currently 2.01/1. Now that is an interesting prospect.