Premier League Stats: Clarke to Baggies another three points v QPR

Steve Clarke's WBA have been in goof form since February

West Brom are in great form under Steve Clarke, and as Andrew Atherley explains, it's not just the start to this season that catches the eye, but also their finish to last season...

West Brom are the surprise high-flyers at this early stage of the Premier League campaign and they look a good bet to keep their good start going with a home win on Saturday against struggling QPR.

The Baggies finished 10th under Roy Hodgson last season but it was easy to be sceptical about new boss Steve Clarke, who was a highly rated No.2 but unproven as a manager. A difficult set of early fixtures led to a widespread expectation that West Brom would fall back, rather than surge forward to their current position of sixth in the table.

A re-evaulation of West Brom seems in order - and it should not be based solely on their first six games of this season. A strong finish to last season gave Clarke something to build on and he has done so in some style.

The turning point last season appeared to be the 5-1 derby win over Wolves at Molineux. Before that game West Brom had been sixth-bottom, but the win gave them momentum as well as leading to the sacking of Mick McCarthy by Wolves.

From that point in mid-February, West Brom have played like a top-eight side with an average of 1.6 points per game. They have lost only six of their 20 league games in that period - and all of those defeats were against good sides (Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Newcastle and Everton last season, and Fulham this season).

If games against top-eight sides are removed from that run of results, West Brom's record since mid-February is an impressive six wins and four draws from 10 games (five wins and a draw at home).

That form indicates they are a good bet against teams expected to finish outside the top eight - and bottom club QPR clearly fall into that category.

QPR's away form under Mark Hughes is dismal - just two points from 12 trips - and the Hawthorns is a difficult place to set about improving that record.

At 1.9210/11 to back, West Brom are not priced up on the form they have shown for Clarke this season, never mind the sustained excellence of their results since mid-February.

Goals look assured on Sunday when Southampton host Fulham. The Saints have the Premier League's only 100% record for games with over 2.5 goals, while Fulham are joint-second in the over 2.5 goals list with five out of six so far.

It doesn't always follow that two teams with that kind of record will produce a high-scoring contest, but the probability is higher than usual and the main question is whether the odds reflect that.

One way of measuring the likelihood is to look at what happened last season in matches between teams with a high incidence of over 2.5 goals. The top six in that category played 30 games against each other, with 20 (67%) having over 2.5 goals - that equates to odds of 1.51/2 and was well above the overall Premier League figure of 54%.

Over 2.5 goals is 1.865/6 to back in Sunday's match and looks a reasonable bet at those odds. It is also better value than Both teams to Score, which looks likely but is more conservatively priced at 1.635/8.

Pick of the stats

Manchester City v Sunderland

Fourteen of City's 16 home games against teams outside the big six since the start of last season have had over 2.5 goals, and 10 of the 16 have had over 3.5 goals.

Newcastle v Manchester United

Newcastle under Alan Pardew have lost only three of their 12 home games against big-six teams, with four points out of six and no goals conceded against United.

Recommended Bets

West Brom to beat QPR at 1.9210/11
Over 2.5 goals in Southampton v Fulham at 1.865/6