Frankel: Are official ratings selling him short?

Frankel goes clear in the Queen Anne to earn his 147 rating

In response to the Racing UK debate about Frankel's position in the pantheon of greats, Timeform provide an overview of where he fits in their history, whilst also looking at some of the issues with the official ratings assessment.

It is said that all good things must come to an end, and, as good things go in Flat racing, they come no better than Frankel, who is due to have his swansong in the QIPCO Champion Stakes on British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday.

No-one realistically questions any longer that Frankel is brilliant - 13 wins out of 13, the last 8 in Group 1s and often by wide margins, prove that beyond doubt - though just how brilliant remains a bone of contention.

Timeform rates Frankel 147 (click HERE to find out more about how Timeform arrived at that rating), which is higher than any other horse in its 64-year history. As time has gone by, the marks set by the likes of Dancing Brave (rated 140 in 1986), Brigadier Gerard (144 in 1972) and Sea-Bird (145 in 1965) have been exceeded by the Sir Henry Cecil-trained star. Timeform has always gone to great lengths to ensure that such comparisons across generations are as valid as they can be.

The first of those, Dancing Brave, ran in the same colours as Frankel and is a horse who many held to be the best of the modern era until Frankel came along. Dancing Brave was certainly outstanding - as evidenced by his win in an exceptionally strong Arc - but also versatile enough to win from a mile to a mile and a half in his classic season.

Timeform was not alone in being impressed: the 1986 International Classifications awarded Dancing Brave a figure of 141.

The International Classifications have long been replaced by the World Thoroughbred Rankings, which have incorporated the best horses from a greater number of countries. Despite this, and despite the passing of much time, no horse has been rated higher officially than Dancing Brave's 141 - Frankel currently sits on 140 - and therein lies a tale.

A survey of the International Classifications of 1986 and the World Thoroughbred Rankings of the present shows clearly that the ratings used in each are not strictly equivalent.

This much was publically acknowledged in 2010 by the World Rankings Supervisory Committee, who stated that "the level of ratings that operated in the first 15 years of the International Classification is not consistent with the level of ratings that has operated since the early 1990s".

It was also acknowledged by BHA Handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill in a blog in May of this year, when he wrote "the level of the World Thoroughbred Rankings has dropped a few pounds since (the days of Dancing Brave)".

By Timeform's reckoning, the general discrepancy is in the region of 4 to 5 pounds, so that Frankel can be considered to be comfortably superior, in real terms, to Dancing Brave by official measures as well as by Timeform's.

Moments of candour like Gardiner-Hill's above, do seem to have been the exception rather than the rule, though.

Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping at the BHA, was reported by The Guardian earlier this week as believing that Frankel is the best Flat racehorse of his lifetime "but it's difficult, at the moment, to prove it with the figures."

Both Smith and Gardiner-Hill have, at other times, quoted the Dancing Brave figure as if it were strictly comparable with Frankel's figure now.

Whatever rating the BHA awards Frankel after Ascot - a figure which will need to be approved by Smith's colleagues from around the world at a get-together in Hong Kong in December - it should be viewed in the context of official ratings having manifestly slipped since 1986.

And whilst we are on the subject of Ascot on Saturday and the 'test' that Frankel faces, it's worth pointing out that according to Timeform ratings, Frankel, who is 14lb clear of 133-rated Cirrus des Aigles, has actually faced horses of that calibre before, though only once has one ran to that sort of figure in direct competition against him, namely Excelebration in the QEII on Champions Day last year, which was Frankel's smallest winning margin (four lengths) since Royal Ascot 2011.

Regardless of what happens on Saturday, Frankel is being sold short by those who decide official ratings and the apparent refusal to consistently acknowledge the slippage of those ratings: that does not mean that the rest of us have to play along.