Champions Day: A yin and yang approach

Frankel: The star of the show on Saturday

The inaugural running of Champions Day went down a storm last year and, with the 2012 renewal fast approaching, Timeform's Matt Gardner attempts to find some early bets with the potential for a Jackpot permutation come the big day...

A number of contests on Saturday's Ascot card seem pretty cut and dried as to whom the most likely winner is, the Champion Stakes and the QE II featuring highly on that list, but what if there were an upset? Cleary it won't happen in the first-mentioned affair, Bullet Train looks nailed on for that, but is Excelebration a certainty?

"Probably" is the answer to that question but I reckon, in search of a spot of entertainment, it is worth supplying a "Sensible" set of six to go to war with and a "Less Sensible" sextet with which to oppose them, sort of a yin and yang kind of thing.

Long Distance Cup
Sensible: The first three from last years' renewal feature prominently once more but, with Fame And Glory disappointing in his last two starts, the pair to focus on are Opinion Poll and Colour Vision. The former is most consistent and is sure to run his race, but the suspicion is that Colour Vision possesses ever so slightly more ability, arguably unlucky not to beat Opinion Poll 12 months ago, and is the one to side with following a respectable effort in the Prix du Cadran last time.

Less Sensible: It is tempting to stick in Aiken, a three-year-old trained by John Gosden, as he is likely to stay two miles and was progressive earlier in the season. However, the step up to this distance could prove to be the making of Brown Panther, his third-placed effort in the Irish St Leger last time suggesting as much, and it would not be a surprise to see him go well.

Champions Sprint
Sensible: Again this readily boils down to just two, with Wizz Kid and Society Rock appealing as the strongest competitors. The former put up a career-best when winning the Prix de l'Abbaye earlier this month and finished second in this event last year, but Society Rock also put up a career-best when landing the Sprint Cup at Haydock on his most recent start, marginally bettering the form he showed last year in winning a soft-ground Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He strikes as being the one to beat.

Less Sensible: Forget Restiadarent's last two starts and concentrate on her third-placed effort to Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. She took her form to another level that day, beaten just over a neck, and if returning to that form, or slightly bettering it, on her return to this track, she is likely to play a major role in proceedings here.

Fillies & Mares
Sensible: Many will side with Great Heavens here but, with the three-year-old having a fairly hard race in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe just a fortnight ago, it could be worth taking her on with Sapphire, who seems at home on a softer surface. This is likely to be her stiffest task yet, but the fact she was sent off as favourite to defeat Izzi Top in the Pretty Polly Stakes says plenty and she makes ample appeal.

Less Sensible: There's a strong case to be made for Dancing Rain's inclusion in this section on her return from an 11-month absence, but a really crazy one to select is La Pomme d'Amour, a three-year-old trained by Andre Fabre. She was well beaten on her most recent start in the Prix Vermeille but a return to the form of her penultimate run, when she improved to beat the likes of Solemia, Dalkala, Haya Landa and Shimmering Surf in the Prix de Pomone, would give her a decent chance of success.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Sensible: The most likely winner is definitely Excelebration, who would virtually be unbeaten were it not for Frankel. The fear after the Queen Anne, when Excelebration looked out on his feet after attempting to chase his great adversary, was that his exertions may finally have left their mark but he dispelled any such theories with success in the Prix Jacques le Marois.

Less Sensible: On the off chance that Excelebration is busy looking for Frankel's backside and forgets to set off, the one to have on side would be Carlton House. It was disappointing he couldn't win the Summer Mile on his return to the trip, but the modest pace was not ideal and he is better than he could show. With Cityscape, Elusive Kate and Most Improved likely to make the running, things could tee up nicely for Carlton House.

Champion Stakes
There is no sensible/less sensible option here, unless you really do fancy sticking in Bullet Train in hope of a miracle. The fact of the matter is that Frankel will win. There are people with far bigger brains than I to elaborate on and discuss Frankel's career and just how far he is likely to win by on Saturday, so my sole recommendation is that you return on Friday and read what Timeform's Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch has to offer on the race.

A quick mention has to go to the German representative Pastorius who, although most unlikely to trouble Frankel, could get close to Cirrus Des Aigles and may be the one for the forecast. Soft ground will see him at his best and it would be a surprise were he not in the shake up for second place.

Apprentice Handicap
Fully aware that I had a bit of a moan about last weekend's Future Champions Day at Newmarket, I will attempt to keep my gripes with regards this race to a minimum by uttering just one sentence: why the heck does Champions Day conclude with a ridiculous 29-runner apprentice handicap? From that, I reckon you get the gist of my thoughts on the race.

It is impossible to be dogmatic about what might run well, let alone win, but the two that are of interest at this stage are Jack Dexter, who took a hefty step forward when forging clear in the Bronze Cup at Ayr, and Well Painted, a three-year-old trained by William Haggas who, although not seen since June, is likely to prove capable of better still and his sire's (Excellent Art) progeny have a solid record when the ground is on the soft side.

There are many options available to you from this point. You could take your pick and back six of the 12 in winning singles, combine any number of them in multiples, have a crack at the Jackpot or completely ignore them all and risk having no winners at Ascot on Saturday.

Winning a fortune would be a nice way to spend an afternoon but the real story of the day will be Frankel on what is likely to be his final foray onto the track. The prospect of him being let loose and displaying the full range of his ability is mouth-watering, and is a sight which should not be missed.

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