WGC Accenture Match Play Tips: Outright and match betting advice for Super Saturday

Ryder Cup hero Nicolas Colsaerts has been in outstanding form this week

Get set for a golfing and punting marathon today at the WGC Accenture Matchplay, with the last-16 and quarter-final rounds being played back to back. Paul Krishnamurty recommended three winners from three match bets yesterday, so who is our man backing on 'Super Saturday'?

Outright
Back Nicolas Colsaerts 10u @ 11.5n/a
The jinx on favourites at this year's WGC Accenture Matchplay continued yesterday with Luke Donald joining the stack of superstar casualties from the opening day. With the Ben Hogan Bracket favourite, Louis Oosthuizen, also biting the dust, none of the four bracket top seeds have made the last-16. Nevertheless there are plenty of world-class big-names still in contention, not least 2010 champion and matchplay master Ian Poulter, who now assumes the market leader's mantle at 8.07/1.

Of the seven picks from my main trading plan or added since, three remain so this last-16 stage is pivotal. Jason Day, Hunter Mahan and Fredrik Jacobson were all recommended at relatively tasty prices but will need at least one, preferably two more wins before offering the chance to bank profit. Normally it would be ideal to update these outright trades after each round by either backing covers or setting lay targets, but that won't be possible today with both the last-16 and quarter-finals being played. Therefore I'm just going to add one new bet, on a man I've fancied for this event from a long way out and whose performance yesterday couldn't have been more convincing.

It made better sense to back Nicolas Colsaerts as the outsider in his first two matches and the plan now is to reinvest those returns on an outright bet at 11.5n/a. The reigning Volvo World Matchplay champion clearly prefers this matchplay format to strokeplay and his power game is absolutely perfect for Dove Mountain. Poulter has won both versions of the World Matchplay and Colsaerts looks well capable of following suit. His next opponent Matt Kuchar is also playing well, but will be at a serious disadvantage in the driving distance department - a factor that will be crucial on the par-fives.

In the ideal scenario, Colsaerts and Jacobson will both win this afternoon, therefore guaranteeing us a semi-finalist and the chance to bank profit tomorrow.
 
Back Graeme McDowell to beat Shane Lowry 6u @ 1.758/11
Shane Lowry's golf this week has been a revelation, making a mockery of his 64th seed status and opening up more opportunities on the bigger stages now he's storming up the rankings. Faced with one of gutsiest match players around, however, I expect Shane's run to come an end this evening. After all, had they met on Thursday before Lowry knocked out Rory McIlroy, McDowell would have been considerably shorter than 1.758/11. We know all about Gmac's head-to-head qualities from the Ryder Cup and he also reached the final of last year's Volvo World Matchplay. Having called upon all his powers of recovery to squeeze past Alex Noren in last night's thriller, the draw is opening up nicely and Gmac will take plenty of stopping over this marathon weekend.

Back Jason Day to beat Bubba Watson 5u @ 1.981/1
If you took the pre-tournament advice to back Day at 75.074/1 this might seem like an unnecessary risk to take, but Day remains worthy of a mention for this match. While Bubba did us a favour yesterday, by the end I wanted to look away every time he lined up a short putt. These greens are extremely tricky and my suspicion is that those struggling to read them now will come a cropper somewhere along the line. Moreover, Bubba will enjoy nowhere near the length advantage here that he did against Jim Furyk. 

Back Hunter Mahan to beat Martin Kaymer 5u @ 1.9620/21
Again, this is a bet that those following my outright advice will already be cheering on, knowing whoever wins will be odds-on to reach the semis. While a class act like Martin Kaymer always warrants respect, he will surely need to improve massively on yesterday's performance. Whereas Rafael Cabrera-Bello offered virtually no resistance, defending champion Hunter Mahan will likely represent the toughest of opponents in these conditions. Indeed, on the basis of last year's heroics and two facile wins so far, Mahan would deserve favouritism against almost anyone here and rates solid value at 1.9620/21.