Two and a Half Goals: Must win City to produce goals at the Etihad

Mancini is expecting goals at the Etihad with City in 'must win' mode

Manchester City could be 15 points adrift in the title race by the time they face Chelsea, and you can rest assured they'll be going for goals against Chelsea says The Inside Man...

Saturday

Arsenal v Aston Villa

Aston Villa are finally looking like they might have a chance of staying up, with draws in their last three away games signifying an upturn in their travelling form.

But it's notable that those games contained lots of goals. 14 goals in three games, to be precise. But it's not that Villa went into those matches looking for a draw. Far from it. They were actually going for the win, and came close to it, having held the lead in every one of those games.

The reason Villa are being so cavalier now is that Paul Lambert has finally worked-out that his team can't defend well enough to play a cautious game. And so now he's got them playing to their attacking strengths. Sometimes it works, as seen in the 3-1 win at Liverpool. And sometimes it doesn't, as demonstrated by the 8-0 mauling at Chelsea. But what it consistently does do is produce goals, with nine of Villa's last 10 matches having been high-scoring.

That will be more than enough invitation for Arsenal, who love a good ding-dong encounter, having already scored at least five goals against each of Newcastle, Southampton, Spurs, Reading and West Ham.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.511/2

QPR v Man Utd

Nil-nil draws in each of their last three home games tells you all about QPR's striking problems. As much as they try, Harry Redknapp's side simply don't have the creativity to unlock any decent-quality defence.

They've also been erring too much on the side of caution, by often playing just one striker and getting numbers behind the ball. It's a tactic that's worked well for QPR defensively, but it's really hurt their chances of winning games.

Redknapp saw to his horror though, what can happen when he does set his side up in a more ambitious manner. Their 4-1 loss to Swansea was a real setback. And with that lesson learned, it's unlikely we'll see a repeat of such tactics against the might of Man United.

As for the Reds, they have a 12 point lead at the top of the table and can afford to take it easy here. And with a big showdown against Real Madrid upcoming, there's no need for Alex Ferguson to risk any of his star players. United took their foot noticeably off the gas in their last couple of games. I expect them to do much the same here.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.166/5

Sunday

Man City v Chelsea

I suspect Man City still have some sting left in their tail and won't be giving up on their title chances just yet. I also think it will be Chelsea who pay the price for being in the wrong place, at the wrong time.

Not that these are the best of times for Chelsea anyway. They slumped to an abject draw with Sparta Prague in midweek and have an ever-growing number of fans who want boss Rafa Benitez to depart. Also, consistency has been in short supply for the Blues of late, with dropped points coming against Southampton and Reading and Newcastle.

But despite their sketchy form, there's been no lack of goals. Eight of Chelsea's last 10 matches were high-scoring, at an average of almost four goals per games. Moreover, eight of their last ten away games have also been full of goals.

City meanwhile are raring to go. Roberto Mancini has star striker Sergio Aguerro back fit, and has challenged his side to finish the season strongly. And I think they'll do just that, in a goal-packed game that should prove the highlight of the weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5

Wolves v Cardiff

These two sides could be playing in different divisions next year, with Cardiff leading the promotion race and Wolves currently in the relegation zone. That said though, the seemingly big difference between these sides may not be too apparent on Sunday, as I just don't see there being many goals.

The reason I say that, is because Cardiff like to keep things tight on their travels. Of their last five away games, two ended in 1-0 wins and two ended goalless, with only a 2-1 win at Blackpool ruining the low-scoring run. Moreover, seven of the Welsh side's last 10 games anywhere have been short on goals. Cardiff are in grind mode at present, and will be looking to eke out another 1-0 win this weekend, to edge them towards their return to the Premier League.

And that should suit Wolves just fine. For them, every point is precious at the moment. Indeed a draw here could be enough to get Wolves out of the drop zone, if results go their way elsewhere. And so I expect caution from both sides. From Wolves, because they need to be, and from Cardiff because it simply serves them well.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.8910/11