The Punter's In-Play Blog: Schwartzel can reel in Sterne opposition and land the Joburg Open

Charl Schwartzel, The Punter’s halfway pick in Joburg

It's early days at the AT & T National but it looks like we're down to just four in Joburg. Read Steve's first In-Play instalment here...

12:40 - February 9, 2013
It looks like I've done my money on Charl Schwartzel at the Joburg Open. He looks quite rusty again today so far - not quite on with his irons and the putts aren't dropping either.

Richard Sterne and Trevor Fisher Jnr are having a ding-dong battle, clear of the remainder, and unless something changes soon, it looks like event over for me and my wagers.

Over at the AT & T Pebble Beach National, Brandt Snedeker and Ted Potter Jnr hold sway at halfway on -8. My in-running wager, Patrick Reed, did ok yesterday and he's in the pack of four on -7. My pre-event picks all disappointed to varying degrees but I'm going to continue to hold off for now. It's an incredibly bunched field and I'm going to wait until tomorrow.

16:10 - February 8, 2013
The last few stragglers are finishing up their second rounds at the Joburg Open but how they finish up is irrelevant. We started the week with a monster field of 210 but if the betting's anything to go by, it's now between just four. Here's the latest leaderboard with prices to back at 15.50pm UK time.

Richard Sterne -15 2.915/8
Trevor Fisher Jnr -15 7.413/2
George Coetzee -12 4.77/2
Charl Schwartzel -10 5.04/1
Felipe Aguilar -10 50.049/1
Keith Horne -10 70.069/1
-9 and 75.074/1 Bar

Mike Norman tipped up Richard Sterne before the off and his man has given himself another great chance to win, following last week's runner-up finish in Dubai. Trevor Fisher Jnr, playing in the morning, had set what looked a good target and it didn't look as though he'd be caught but Sterne, playing on the tougher East Course, reeled him in with an impressive seven under-par 65. They have a nice lead now, but can they go on to win?

Sterne won here in 2008, the first of three titles claimed in what transpired to be a stellar year, but he hasn't added to his tally of five European Tour events since. Admitedly, the main reason for that has been injuries but I backed him in-running in Dubai last week and I was bitterly disappointed by his performance on the back-nine on Sunday. He's found form in no uncertain terms but it's a very long time since he won and after last week's debacle, I want to be against him here.

Fisher's in-contention figures aren't awful but he's competed on the lesser Sunshine Tour in the main and I distinctly remember him leading the Africa Open for three rounds in 2010 before coming up short on Sunday and I fancy the man that beat him then, might just do so again, Charl Schwartzel.

George Coetzee will have his supporters, as he most certainly did before the off, but I simple cannot back someone looking for his first title at half the price he was before the off when I can back Schwartzel, two shots behind him, at bigger than his starting price.

Schwartzel traded shorter than he does now before the off but after two rust-removing rounds, he looks a value play. I turned my nose up at him before the off but I quite like the look of him now, although he'll need to hit the ground running tomorrow. Five shots was the margin he trailed Fisher Jnr at the Africa Open in 2010 and he was six back at halfway when he won the US Masters two years ago so he won't view the task ahead as insurmountable by any means.

All four of my AT & T Pebble Beach National selections shot under-par yesterday, a feat achieved by less than half the field, but it was still a bit disappointing. Phil Mickelson was three under-par after ten holes but finished on one-under. Jason Kokrak putted like Blind Pew on his way to a two under-par 70 around Pebble - missing numerous short putts. Aaron Baddeley blotted his copybook with a double-bogey but still shot -3 and the best of the four, longshot Scott Langley, would have ended the day tied for the lead, but for a bogey on his penultimate hole.

Russell Knox and a resurgent Hunter Mahan hold sway after day one and it feels far too early to get involved in-running but I have had one wager, on Patrick Reed - a player I've got a feeling could be something special.

I've listed the hole averages below and you'll see that Spyglass played the toughest on day one. Reed managed four under-par there yesterday so he's got the toughest out of the way with a decent score and I felt he was worth getting onside at a huge price but other than that, I'm holding fire for now.

Day One Hole Averages
Pebble Beach 71.62
Spyglass Hill 72.38
Monterrey Peninsula 69.60

Joburg Open Pre-Event Selections:
Garth Mulroy @ 38.037/1
Marc Warren @ 70.069/1
Ross McGowan @ an average of 280.0279/1
Jean-Paul Strydom @ 1000.0n/a
Jared Harvey @ 1000.0n/a

In-Play Bet
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of 4.84/1

AT & T National Pre-Event Bets:
Phil Mickelson @ 8.808/1
Aaron Baddeley @ 55.054/1
Jason Kokrak @ 250.0249/1 (each way - Fixed odds)
Scott Langley @ 360.0359/1

In-Play Bet
Patrick Reed @ an average of 200.0199/1

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