пятница, 22 февраля 2013 г.

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rory and Tiger both go west in Arizona

A disgruntled Rory on his way out of the Match Play

The snow fell on day one and the first three in the betting tumbled on day two. As we enter day three, with still two round one matches yet to finish, Steve gets us up to speed with his latest in-running plays...

10:00 - February 22, 2013
At the WGC Accenture Match Play, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and the red-hot Charl Schwartzel have all fallen at the first hurdle and so have three of my four pre-event picks. Not a great start but it could have been worse...

I'm a bit miffed I layed back my bet on Shane Lowry to beat McIlroy but I'm thankful that I got on Bubba Watson in the outright market at a nice price.

Lee Westwood going out, courtesy of a weak bogey on the final hole, just about justified my decision to take it easy from the start but had he won, I wouldn't have been happy.

I'd written in my preview that Martin Kaymer, Bubba, Westwood, Nick Watney and Matt Kuchar all looked reasonably priced and I'd toyed with the idea of backing them all from the start. But there's nothing worse than laying out loads, only to find on day two that most of your picks have been knocked out early and you're left with a mountain to climb, so I took the cautious approach from the get-go.

On balance, because Westwood lost and I backed Bubba in the end anyway, I don't feel too bad about my strategy. Had I not backed Bubba and had Westwood beaten Cabrera-Bello, it's fair to say I'd have been feeling far less content this morning.

I've now added both Watney and Kuchar at what I think are still very reasonable prices and with Bubba getting through against Chris Wood and with Peter Hanson beating Thomas Bjorn, I still have one selection in each bracket. Let's see what today brings.

16:10 - February 21, 2013
Play's been put back another hour and we're now looking at a 6.30pm UK start.

15:10 - February 21, 2013
Play has been delayed again at the WGC Accenture Match Play, this time thanks to frost. They're now due to resume at 5.30pm UK time.

I've added one more player to the portfolio - Bubba Watson @ 55.054/1.

He's currently tied with Chris Wood after six holes but holds the advantage on the 7th. Bubba has 21 feet for birdie, whereas Wood hasn't found the green with his approach shot and is 98 feet from the hole.

Should Bubba win, he'd hopefully meet Ryan Moore in round two and if that happens, I'll have at least one player through to round three. It doesn't look like he's playing brilliantly but 55.054/1 was just too big to ignore.

One other thing to note is that Paul Lawire has written on his blog that his backs none too clever. I'm not laying off because it's a guessing game as to how bad it is but I thought it worth mentioning.

And finally, I've had a few tweets asking about the link to the Play by Play app mentioned yesterday. If you have a smart phone and you want to try out the app, please look me up on Twitter where I've posted the link.

22:30 - February 20, 2013
A smattering of snow fell before the final of the WGC Accenture Match Play two years ago and I assumed then that it was a freak occurrence but it seems not. So bad has the snowfall been today that play has stopped for the day, with ten matches yet to even start.

Obviously, with so little play completed I haven't too much to report yet but it looks as though I've lost the first of my four picks. Sergio Garcia has a 12-footer for birdie on the 15th hole which, should he make, would result in a 3 and 2 win for the Spaniard over my man Thongchai Jaidee.

I haven't added to my original picks yet and I haven't had any bets on the matches either. I did back Shane Lowry to beat Rory McIlroy when the weather looked bad but given they're coming back tomorrow and that the weather could be completely different, I've now layed that back.

So, very little to report but I have found a lovely little angle-in for trading in-running...

The leaderboard on the PGA Tour website was so inept earlier that it didn't even show how many holes had been completed in each match - a malady now remedied, but why waste time on that leaderboard when the worldglfchampionship.com mobile app has Play by Play!

I found it more by luck than judgement but if you can, check it out. For example, it shows that Graeme McDowell looks on the verge of losing the first hole to Padraig Harrington. G-Mac has 28 feet for par - Pod has just four.

It's going to be a long day tomorrow and quite how they'll progress I don't know. I assume they'll just keep going for as long as possible but that will mean by the end of the day, some players will be through to round three and some will have barely started round two.

Pre-Event Selections
Bobby Jones Bracket -Ryan Moore @ 80.079/1
Gary Player Bracket - Peter Hanson @ 91.0n/a Fixed Odds Market
Sam Snead Bracket - Paul Lawrie @ 140.0139/1
Ben Hogan Bracket - Thongchai Jaidee @ 190.0189/1

In-Play Bets
Bubba Watson @ 55.054/1
Nick Watney @ 34.033/1
Matt Kuchar @ 27.026/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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