The effects of Monday Night games on NFL betting

The Effects of Monday Night Games on NFL Betting

By Jack Ratcliffe Nov 12, 2012

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You know that Monday Night Football – featuring the best teams and biggest stars – guarantees a full national telecast and is immensely popular with the NFL betting public. But do you know how it affects football betting?

Monday Night Betting – A Waiting Game?

For a while, Monday night football followed a somewhat predictable pattern. Sharp bettors did some of their best work by backing home underdogs for Monday’s big games.

This well-known betting system (one of the first for NFL) has lost its luster in recent years, however, and the results for home underdogs have fallen in-line with their pricing.

While the home underdogs systems may have had its day, high profile games (specifically Monday Nights) still have somewhat predictable line movements. Excluding weather and injury factors, conventional wisdom says to play the favorite early or the underdog an hour before kickoff to ensure the best price available (see the latest NFL odds here).

Team totals also have a history of moving upwards as game time approaches. The difference between winning and losing a bet is often just a single point, and waiting to place an under bet until Monday evening could help you get that extra point.

The “over” has been the more profitable option in recent years, however. From 2007 ‘til September 2012, 55.2% of games came in as over, bringing with it a 9.1% return on investment, according to Sports Insights.

Monday Night Props

High profile games – like Monday Night football – often provide more opportunities in props than on the game itself. Props are generally easiest for a player to beat and, bookmakers routinely lose money on them.

When you bet on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus a single trader. If you know more than that one trader on that one subject, you’ll have a much better chance to win than over a whole game. As a result, many props departments will consider a break-even day as a small victory.

With the variety of props offered and popular public betting, it’s not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. Some bettors – professional prop players – base their entire bets on a contrarian view of the odds, betting on lines that that move more than 0.20 (betting towards the original price).

Whatever your system for Monday Night betting, one thing is for certain – Pinnacle Sports offers the best NFL odds – see for yourself here.

*Odds subject to change