Ligue 1 Betting: Brittany rivals set to serve up thriller

Nice are an excellent team but overrated this weekend

On a sensational run of 22 winners from his last 28 recommendations, James Eastham guides you through this weekend's top French bets.

Lorient v Rennes (8th v 4th) Sat, 16:00 GMT
This season's stats suggest Over 2.5 Goals should be odds-on rather than odds-against.

Twelve of Lorient's 22 league games, including 6/11 at home, have had over 2.5 goals. The same applies to 11 of Brittany rivals Rennes' 22 league games, including 6/11 away from home.

Then there's the evidence of how they've played in recent weeks, with both teams clearly better going forward than defensively. Rennes' 2-2 draw against Marseille last weekend was a case in point; Lorient's last four league fixtures have averaged 3.5 goals a game.

Brest v Nice (14th v 6th) Sat, 19:00 GMT
I'm as big a fan as anyone of the wonderful football Nice have played this season, but their price of 2.3811/8 to win at Brest is too short.

The hosts have a respectable W5-D1-L4 home record while Nice are W2-D5-L3 on the road, so the chances of Brest picking up at least a point are greater than the market suggests. I would back the hosts with an Asian Handicap start.

Both teams to Score is my other selection. Since Brest deliberately adopted a more attacking approach at the start of December both teams have scored in five of their eight league matches, while Nice have scored in 11 of their last 12 away games in all competitions.

Bordeaux v Valenciennes (5th v 12th) Sat, 19:00 GMT
These two sides are among Ligue 1's biggest transfer market losers.

The departure of Yoan Gouffran for Newcastle Utd robbed Bordeaux of their only reliable goalscorer, while Valenciennes are considerably weaker following the sales of two of the division's most underrated footballers - Gil, the Brazilian centre-half that moved to Corinthians, and Foued Kadir, now at Marseille.

Both teams are likely to score fewer goals following those sales, and Valenciennes are likely to play more cautiously than they did in the first-half of the season in order to protect a defence that suddenly looks vulnerable. This makes Under 2.5 Goals the smart bet, especially as eight of Bordeaux's 10 home games this season have featured two goals or fewer.

Lille v Troyes (11th v 19th) Sat, 19:00 GMT
Both teams to Score is always a good shout in Troyes games: it's paid out in 15 of 22 league games, including four of their last five.

Lille have failed to find the net in their last two matches but were unlucky at PSG last weekend (1-0 defeat). They should be able to score against visitors that have conceded in 21 of 22 fixtures. 

Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Brest +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap v Nice @ 1.9520/21
Brest v Nice Both teams to Score @ 1.9520/21
Lorient v Rennes Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.166/5
Lille v Troyes Both teams to Score @ 2.0421/20
Bordeaux v Valenciennes Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.705/7

James Eastham has made 49.24pts profit from 409pts staked on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets since August 2008 (12.0% ROI), including 13.1% ROI this season. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham