In-Running Week: Zarkandar one to trade bigger in the run?

Neil thinks Zarkandar will trade bigger than his BSP in the Champion Hurdle

Neil Munro returns to offer his latest in-running advice...

Work is a very busy place at the moment so trying to find time to keep an eye on the racing is tough, but that is where those long, lonely nights away from the family kick in. Lady of Burgundy, Miss Milbourne and Little Dutch Girl take up most of my time but the missus has nothing to worry about, not that she does. She knows the only thing I pull in a nightclub is a calf muscle with my dads' dancing. But having said that, the horses that have caught my attention this week are all of the male variety.

Home Run

I knew it. I have been watching this horse pick up success after success knowing that he is a quirky character that would trade low and get beaten soon. And at long last it happened at Taunton. Despite his successes he has always drifted under pressure and did so again, this time causing defeat. I had been trading on him previously, but always with the field winning, so I hadn't made a bean out of him. And during his previous defeat he didn't trade at the price that I wanted. But this time I got out at odds on and he traded at 1.2 in the run having gone off a BSP of 7.0. Home Run is entered in some of the handicap hurdles at Cheltenham but his best form has come with deep cut in the ground.

Back Home Run pre-race and then lay out your stake at the BSP. Then put up odds-on offers to have the field winning for you, or a balanced green book.

Zarkandar

Currently trading at 5.8 for the Champion Hurdle after his win in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, Zarkandar is a workmanlike type who grinds down opposition rather than out classing them. That might be slightly unkind but it is backed up by the stats. He doesn't trade short in the run until he has the race wrapped up because he isn't a strong traveller, and he does trade big most of the time when he wins, and indeed he did so the two times he won at Cheltenham. When winning the International Hurdle he traded at 3.95 in the run (2.17 BSP) and when he won the Triumph Hurdle he traded 42.0 (8.2 BSP) during the race.

If you fancy Zarkandar for the Champion Hurdle, split your stakes and back pre-race at BSP and in the run at 2x BSP. I am likely to lay him pre-race and put up to clear my liability at just above 2x BSP.

Celestial Halo

I was interested to read that Dan Skelton felt that Celestial Halo would stay the World Hurdle trip and connections must have been pleased with his comeback run behind Zarkandar. He certainly is a strong travelling type, and I know there will be others in the World Hurdle - not least Oscar Whisky - but I think he could be a good trading horse for the race. Connections tend to run him up with the pace, so he could hopefully dictate the pace of the race, and thus could give opportunity for a decent trade as he is currently quoted at 50/1. He has traded his BSP 70% of the time and odds-on 56% in the run.

Back Celestial Halo pre-race for the World Hurdle at BSP and then lay out your stake at BSP in the run. I would then put up further offers around 5.0 and 3.0 to give myself a green book.

Remember with Cheltenham Festival trades to put them in slightly higher or lower than at other meetings due to the volume of money and the fact that you are trading on a market that is very educated and mature.

Something for the weekend

Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at Kempton.

If Lordofthehouse turns up just beware that he is a bit of a character who has refused to race or gone off reluctantly. Interestingly after his win at Wetherby in November his trainer Tom George said 'he is a very talented horse who loves jumping. I think he might be all right at the start now he realises hes going jumping. He used to dig his toes in when he was going to the schooling field at home, but now hes fine so hopefully it will be the same with his racing.' 

Next time out he was very slowly away and raced as if disinterested for the first few fences. He then came into the race travelling well before failing to find, unsurprisingly. Because of his nature he has traded 2x BSP on four of his 5 wins and 4x BSP on three of those so don't back him pre-race, just back high in the run if he goes off, even if slightly detached, and then lay out at the matched price for a green book.

Racing Plus Handicap Chase at Kempton.

Call me an old softy but I am going to have to play on Nacarat if he goes for the above race. Yes, of course he isn't the horse he was but if there is one place and one race which could trigger an improved performance this is the one. The twelve-year-old likes to bowl along at or near the front and naturally trades shorter because of this. He should go off a workman like price as well to help. He has won the race twice and been placed twice when he traded at 3.25 in the run (6.19 BSP) and 1.53 (7.42 BSP) so back him pre-race at BSP, then lay out your stake at BSP with further lower offers to green up your book.

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