воскресенье, 10 февраля 2013 г.

Exeter Placepot: Sunday February 10

Sunday's Placepot comes from Exeter

Exeter is confirmed to go ahead and that's where Keith Melrose is heading for Sunday's Placepot.

14:00 - A good race for what's officially a class 4 novice. There's every chance that banking on new Paul Nicholls recruit Just A Par would suffice, as he's ultimately bound for better things, but with him being favourite and not having run since the autumn we can afford to take a couple against him, especially with options such as Many Clouds and Kilmurvy available to us. Many Clouds would be the major selection of the pair, his experience greater and his form progressive all along; Kilmurvy is only a mite less solid, his inclusion based primarily on the most positive impression he created when landing a race at Taunton on similar ground to today's and over a similar trip.

14:30 - This is the race of the day, a listed novice featuring some genuine Supreme hopefuls, who'll all have to up their game significantly after My Tent Or Yours' magisterial success in the Betfair Hurdle yesterday. We at Timeform hold higher hopes than most for Puffin Billy, the deep impression left so far leading us to think he can go to the very top. Do we bank though? There are only seven runners, but with him having no excuse on account of ground there really is no reason for Puffin Billy to finish out of the first two, so bank we shall.

15:00 - Leg three can be approached as a process of elimination. Bensalem and Pearlysteps are both reappearing (presumably with the Cheltenham Festival on their agenda) and Highland Lodge has questions to answer after his capitulation at Warwick. That leaves Harry Topper and Hawkes Point, both of whom have the right sort of profile for a three-mile slog.

15:30 - Current favourite for leg four is Rouge Et Blanc, an impressive winner at Huntingdon earlier in the week, but he's had well-documented breathing problems and neither bottomless ground nor a quick turnaround are likely to benefit him, so we can leave him to one side. Bally Legend is a much more solid option. He's been placed on all four starts over fences so far and is up only 5 lb for pulling clear with Niceonefrankie last time. Simply Wings is our reserve option, his jumping sometimes sloppy but his wins either side of a hiccup at Cheltenham in December suggest he's a horse at the top of his game.

16:00 - Colour Squadron appears to be priced up on hurdles form and the deft ride given to him by AP McCoy last time after the saddle slipped, but he's too short for us, especially considering connections might have one eye on handicaps with this being his third run over fences. Instead, Act of Kalanisi is our main selection, his chase form to date pretty solid if you're able to forgive an early spill at Ascot last time. Dare Me also goes in, his profile consistent overall and his completed chase starts (fell at the same fence in the same race as Act of Kalanisi) solid enough to make us think he'll prove useful over fences.

16:30 - A rare appearance for a bumper on the Placepot horizon, with seven runners making it an even more tricky affair in theory. This looks a prime candidate for the bank-and-maybe-place-lay tactic, with Vieux Lion Rouge fitting the desired profile. He's already won a couple of heavy-ground bumpers and has the resultant penalties negated by his four-year-old allowance. This will test his stamina more than previous outings, but it's unlikely to find him out.

Selections:
14:00 - 2, 3
14:30 - 4
15:00 - 3, 5
15:30 - 2, 6
16:00 - 1, 5
16:30 - 7
= 16 lines

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