Bundesliga Betting: Hoffenheim revival to be short-lived

Hannover 96 have turned the AWD Arena into a fortress

Kevin Hatchard has been casting his eye over this weekend's Bundesliga fixtures, and says wins for Hannover and Eintracht Frankfurt are available at surprisingly chunky prices.

Hannover 96 vs Hoffenheim, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Hannover 2.265/4, Hoffenheim 3.45n/a, the draw 3.613/5

Hoffenheim are two points above the automatic relegation zone after last week's crucial 2-1 win over Freiburg, but new manager Marco Kurz still has some big problems to address. The goalkeeping issue has at least been resolved, with Heurelho Gomes brought in on loan from Spurs to replace the chronically dreadful Tim Wiese. Gomes played well on his debut, but the defence in front of him is still all over the place.

Hoffenheim have the worst defence in the Bundesliga (44 goals conceded), and Opta tell us they have conceded more goals from set-pieces (19) than any other team. This doesn't bode well for Saturday's trip to Hannover, who have scored the most goals from set-pieces (15) in the division. To make matters worse for Kurz, Hoffe have the Bundesliga's worst away record, losing seven out of nine games.

Hannover have won their last three home games, and they have won six out of ten league matches at the AWD Arena. Mirko Slomka's men have struggled defensively, conceding 39 goals, but it's worth bearing in mind that just 14 of those goals were shipped at home. With attacking talents like Mame Diouf, Jan Schlaudraff and Szabolcs Huszti on show, I suspect Hoffe could be in for a torrid time.

I'm amazed to see Hannover priced at 2.265/4 for the win, so take advantage. Over 2.5 Goals should be shorter than 1.758/11, so that's worth a look too.

Recommended Bets

Back Hannover to win at 2.265/4

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.758/11

Greuther Furth vs Wolfsburg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Greuther 3.211/5, Wolfsburg 2.56/4, the draw 3.45n/a

Don't be fooled by Greuther's dramatic 2-1 win at Schalke last week - Mike Buskens' team is still the weakest in the division, and Furth will still be relegated.

At the Veltins Arena, with the game poised at 1-1, Schalke squandered a number of gilt-edged chances to win. Raffael smacked a shot just wide with keeper Wolfgang Hesl stranded, and the Brazilian saw another effort strike the post. Greuther deserve credit for scoring a messy last-gasp winner, but this was by no means a sign of their imminent revival.

New Wolfsburg boss Dieter Hecking is still trying to wring some consistency from his charges, and he admits some of his players lack tactical discipline. The Wolves failed to beat relegation-threatened Augsburg last week, but it should be noted that the Bavarians have improved massively in the last few weeks, and ruddy-cheeked ex-Arsenal keeper Alex Manninger was on superb form.

It tends to be feast or famine for Wolfsburg on their travels, with four wins, a draw and five defeats. I'm well aware that Hecking has a huge amount of work to do to turn Wolfsburg into a well-drilled unit, but he has plenty of firepower and a fully-fit squad at his disposal. Greuther have by far the worst home record in the division (no wins, three draws, seven defeats), and I think 2.486/4 for the Wolfsburg win is too big to pass up. Greuther will have to open up at some stage to chase another much-needed win, and I think players like Diego and Bas Dost can punish them on the counter-attack.

Recommended Bet

Back Wolfsburg to win at 2.56/4

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Nurnberg, Sat 14:30 BST

Match Odds: Eintracht 1.9110/11, Nurnberg 4.67/2, the draw 3.7511/4

Amazing as it seems, Armin Veh's Eintracht Frankfurt are still on course for Champions League qualification. Regular readers of this column may recall that I tipped the Eagles to comfortably avoid relegation, but I had no idea they would perform as well they have.

Last weekend's excellent 2-0 win at Hamburg gave Eintracht a six-point cushion between them and fifth-placed Mainz. Former Kaiserslautern, Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim striker Srdjan Lakic scored both goals against Hamburg, and I think he is a great signing. With the right service he can be a regular goalscorer at this level, and he'll take a bit of pressure off attacking spearhead Alex Meier. At the other end of the pitch keeper Kevin Trapp was excellent against Hamburg, showing a good sense of positioning and displaying excellent reflexes.

No-one in the Bundesliga has a better home record than Eintracht (seven wins, two draws, one defeat), and I expect that run to continue against a limited Nurnberg side. Nurnberg's 2-1 home win against Borussia Monchengladbach last week was a fine result, but the defence looked far from solid, especially against the pacy running of Patrick Hermann. The Opta stats don't make great reading for Nurnberg fans - the Bavarians have lost six of their last eight away games, they have scored a league-worst seven goals on their travels, and they haven't picked up a road win since mid-September.

Given Eintracht's excellent home record, their strong current form and Nurnberg's poor results on their road, 1.9110/11 is a mouth-watering price for the home win.

Recommended Bet

Back Eintracht Frankfurt to win at 1.9110/11