Against All Odds: Goals to rain in Spain

The Levante players are an emotional bunch

Levante take on Zaragoza live on Betfair Live Video in the Copa del Rey this evening but while the Betfair markets aren't forecasting too many goals, the in-form Paul Robinson is.

Levante are having another fine campaign under boss, Juan Ignacio Martnez. After leading his side to a sixth placed finish last year, he has them up in sixth again this term and through to the knockout phase of the Europa League. They are a club on the up and given that their main honour to date is the Segunda Division title back in 2004, the Copa del Rey represents a great opportunity for them to pick up some silverware.

This tie is a two legged affair and the Frogs will be leaping at the chance to put it to bed before they have to travel to Zaragoza. The omens are good as aside from Barcelona and Real Madrid, they haven't lost at home since the end of March. As far as the goals go, all of their last seven at Estadi Ciutat de Valncia have gone over 2.5, with their last four actually going over 3.5.

Zaragoza come into this match on the back of a confidence boosting 2-0 victory at Rayo Vallecano. Before that game they'd lost three and drawn one of their previous four so it was important for Manolo Jimnez's team to get back on the winning trail.

The Blanquillos are safely berthed in mid-table in La Liga, but if they have desires of improving on that then they could do with tightening up at the back. They've shipped 23 goals so far this year, and the clean sheet at the weekend was their first of the season. Away from La Romareda, Zaragoza have conceded 16 goals in nine fixtures, an average of 1.78 per 90 minutes, with four of their last half dozen all going over 2.5.

There is always the danger that this could be a cautious encounter as it's just the first leg of two, however I think Levante will go all out to get it done and dusted as Zaragoza are tough to beat at home and Levante's record away isn't exactly stellar. At around the 1.824/5 mark, under 2.5 goals looks like decent value to give us our 10th winner from 13 selections, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Levante v Zaragoza @ 1.824/5

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 286 pts
Returned: 297.02 pts
P/L + 11.02 pts