Aviva Premiership: Always choose battle-hardened sides

Northampton captain Phil Dowson knows what it is like to be in the wars

Both Northampton and Saracens had extremely tough games last week but Geoffrey Riddle, Betfair's rugby analyst, believes it is better to be in the thick of it rather than trouncing teams like Harlequins and Bath did in Europe...

Rugby is a game that requires players to put their bodies on the line and although there is the temptation to believe teams are fresh after an easy week, time and again it is the battle-hardened sides that prevail.

That thinking is put to the test this week by two of the live matches as both Harlequins and Bath have spent the past fortnight thrashing poor Italian sides in the Heineken Cup and Challenge Cup respectively.

Harlequins trounced Zebre, while Bath made Calvisano look like a desperately poor outfit. Where Harlequins were scoring tries for fun, Northampton, who host the league leaders at Franklin's Gardens on Saturday, were up against one of the best teams in Europe.

Northampton held on last weekend at Ravenhill to not only end Ulster's four-year unbeaten run at home in Europe, but also downed the Northern Irish side's 13-match winning sequence. It was an extraordinary effort from Jim Mallinder's side, who used forward power to deny Ulster enough oxygen with which to set alight the match.

Looking at the replays and the match statistics, Northampton were lucky to get the win. They were carved, diced and chopped up by the Ulster runners time and again. The home side made nearly three times as many clean breaks as their visitors and if Northampton do not improve Ugo Monye and Co will be ready to slice up the Saints this week.

The double header against Ulster was the first time that Mallinder has had the luxury of a full-strength side. Northampton appeared to be caught cold against Ulster at home in round three of the Heineken Cup, so last week's improved effort bodes well for this crucial clash.

I make Northampton marginal favourites for this sell-out match, but suspect the market might have it the other way around when the prices go up on the high street.

Saracens were in the same boat as Northampton last week in that they were up against Munster, and they edged out the dual Heineken Cup winners with a characteristic defensive performance.

Saracens are almost impossible to break down at times, and have scored and conceded just nine tries in the Premiership this season. Munster scored a try only once in 160 minutes of rugby against them and with Bath having scored only 14 tries in 10 Premiership outings this campaign this is certainly one for the unders at anything down to 35 total match points.

This has been a very good month for Wasps, having lost only one of their last five matches in all competitions. Joe Launchbury was named player of the month, also, and they look to have an easy match before Christmas against a very sorry Sale side at Adams Park on Sunday.

It is terrifying to think that there were some people out there who felt that Sharks were the dark horses of this campaign in September. They languish in bottom spot, and have real problems in attack where they cannot buy a point. They suffered the ignominy of losing to nil against Toulon in the Heineken Cup - their heaviest Heineken Cup defeat in the history of the tournament and going through the video it was easy to spot who was trying and who was not.

John Mitchell, the coach, was scathing at the Stade Felix Mayol after the match, saying: "I certainly know a lot more about some individuals after that performance.

"Some of the characters have been revealed and I don't have a lot of choice in some positions."

It is one thing to be outclassed by the best team in Europe, it is quite another to not try in matches and it is a wonder that Sale have the temerity to still charge 59 for a seated adult ticket for their match against Worcester next week.

Sale have registered just one away success in 2012, and that was at Gloucester in April. There is absolutely no hope they can win this match and with a team lacking any backbone pricing up a handicap is almost impossible.

As there are no prices up on the high street as yet, if you want a price to trade around in my view Wasps should be favourites by around 14 to 17 points. Merry Christmas.

Recommended Bets

2pts Northampton to beat Harlequins
2pts under total points in Saracens v Bath