Against All Odds: A not so Super Sunday

It could be a long afternoon for those in attendance

QPR host Liverpool in the Premier League this afternoon and while the Betfair markets favour goals, Paul Robinson doesn't think there will be too many.

QPR are back on the bottom of the pile after they lost 2-1 at home to West Brom. Harry Redknapp may have improved them enough to earn their first win of the season against Fulham, but they still look almost certain to go down, especially with Reading, Southampton and Wigan picking up points yesterday.

Rangers are devoid of quality in all areas of the field and they are making individual mistakes as well which are costing them goals. Rob Green was the latest as he tipped the ball into his own net after coming under minimal pressure from the attacker. They have played nine league games at Loftus Road so far this term, won one, lost four and drawn four. They have kept just one clean sheet and scored only eight goals themselves.

Liverpool fell to a 3-1 defeat at Stoke on Wednesday and after grabbing an early lead, the defence played very poorly and conceded three pretty sloppy goals. I'd expect Brendan Rodgers to have torn strips off his back four, Skrtel and Agger in particular and they should be looking to prove a point against QPR.

On the road, four of Liverpool's last seven in all competitions have gone under 2.5 goals, with three going under 1.5 and the match at the Liberty Stadium at the end of November going under 0.5. 

This has all the hallmarks of being a cagey affair and while I expect the Merseysiders to nick it, I don't envisage a goal fest. Therefore with over 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.9520/21 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in QPR v Liverpool @ 1.9520/21

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 301 pts
Returned: 312.60 pts
P/L + 11.60 pts (after commission)