Aviva Premiership Betting: The live TV games reviewed

Ugo Monye is part of Harlequins' attacking machine

Geoffrey Riddle has delved in to his ratings database to come up with two beauties in the Premiership this weekend as traders can get involved in three live games...

Harlequins v London Irish

The Premiership's most destructive attacking force comes up against the league's leakiest defence on Saturday when Harlequins tackle London Irish at Twickenham in "Big Game 5".

Harlequins have shown repeatedly this season that they are not only the best team in Britain, but that when their attacking engine is switched on, it purrs.

Last week they were stopped in their tracks by Northampton but still managed to eke out a win and it is this ability that makes Harlequins a shoo-in at virtually any price you like.

Of course there is always the correct level to be trading at, but in matches of this nature when there is rain about the correlation between handicaps and match betting drifts apart slightly.

According to my ratings, Harlequins could be anything up to 13-point favourites for this match, but the rain compresses the handicap as the total points market also comes down.

It makes it difficult to accurately gauge precisely where the handicap should lie, but as far as the win market is concerned, Harlequins are a better outfit than Irish whatever the weather.

It sounds short, but if you don't mind trading at odds-on then 1.162/13 looks fairly good value.

Recommended investment: (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Harlequins at 1.162/13

Leicester v Gloucester

Leicester's clash with Gloucester will be one of the most physically intense matches during the festive period. Both sides like to inflict physical misery on their opponents and it is something that Gloucester coach Nigel Davies admitted this week.

Gloucester beat Leicester last time at Kingsholm, inflicting a 27-21 defeat on the Tigers. The reverse fixture should be a very different affair, with Leicester looking to utilise their kick-chase game in the narrow confines of Welford Road resulting in a likely low-scoring encounter.

Richard Cockerill's troops have lost just one of their last 23 matches at home and that was in September to Harlequins who are the best team in England.

Gloucester fronted up well when going down 28-23 to Saracens this month, which remains their only loss in their last seven games, which is why the Tigers are trading at only 1.330/100. It's a no bet match for me.

Saracens v Northampton

Sometimes there is a bet that is so blindingly obvious that it is questionable whether a layer can feasibly go low enough. That may well be the case in Saracens fixture at stadiummk against Northampton on Sunday.

Saracens are one of the most frugal teams in Europe, winning their matches through the boot of Charlie Hodgson.

Saracens have successfully kicked a staggering 54 penalties this season, which is over double that of Northampton. The Men in Black have scored on 10 tries in their 11 Premiership outings and their legendary defence has leaked only nine tries.

It is a phenomenal record and one that makes it easy to believe that total points for this match will be too high, whatever the market makers at Betfair decide when the market goes up.

Northampton may have been thrashed by Ulster in the first of their double headers in the Heineken Cup this month, but they have improved and prevented first Ulster, and then Harlequins from crossing their whitewash since.

The last six matches in the league between these two sides have generated an average total points make-up of only 35.8, and with heavy rain forecast in the Milton Keynes area I will be astonished if the total points make up over 35, and would trade low down to 30.

As a result of this anticipated low-scoring fixture, I also find it questionable whether Northampton should be considered as big as seven-point underdogs for a match on neutral ground.

Recommended investment: (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts unders in the total points market down to 30
1pt Northampton on the main match handicap