Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Riley really cannot make the final

Actor Oliver Tobias - who featured in the 1970s film epic 'The Stud'

With the final of Strictly Come Dancing just one week away, our man Alan Dudman is hoping to land another elimination bet with Lisa Riley this Saturday, as the dancers face two routines for the weekend. 

Louis Smith has the dream ratio at the moment, he is the one man left with four women. And it reminds me
of that film I once saw: "One man left with four women," but the less said about that the better. A step down ratio way has me reminiscing of my 'A' Level days and me poring over the UCCA and PCAS booklets for my University admissions. 

My number one target back then was Nottingham Trent (women to man ratio of 4:1), but due to some erratic marking on behalf of the examiners I never did get to experience that perfect number equation. Neither did I during my days at North London Polytechnic (ratio 1:1). Final result (a 2:2). Luckily education was free in those days. 

If dances were University fees, then Kimberley Walsh's 40 point fusion last Saturday would be the top rate. Her routine was simply stunning, combining some breathless steps with the 'Joan Collins' pout. Judge Bruno described it as the 'dance of the season' and she finally turned those 34s into a maximum. 

I would like to turn myself into Oliver Tobias, he of course featured in 'The Stud', a marvellous brooding 1970s film in which Tobias (who played Tony Blake) was the lust interest of Fontaine Khaled (played by Joan Collins). I always dreamed of playing Tobias, much like I dreamed of gaining entry to Nottingham Trent (with similar odds some might say).

Walsh's routine has placed a gigantic Girls Aloud shaped spanner in the works for several backers, as a few weeks she wasn't exactly final material, in fact she had drifted to 20.0019/1 in the winner market. She also had tasted the bottom two. Kimbles is back in to 7.807/1 to win, and has firmly returned to the ball game. 

We are now one step away from the final, and this weekend's semis will unleash the double dance for the celebrities. Scores last Saturday were Kimberley 40, Dani 38, Louis 37, Denise 35. I have failed to mention Lisa Riley in that, as she is likely to be heading out the exit door. More on her later. 

Kimberley has the American smooth this Saturday along with the Charleston. And we all know how high the Charleston can be marked (having narrowly been denied last week with Dani). Her smooth is good, as the singer has great balance. She could be the 'Chris Hollins' in the sense that she has come from nowhere, a comparison I am sure she'll be thrilled with, although Hollins is still languishing in nowhere. Walsh is 3.4012/5 for highest scorer, a big price considering she got top marks last Saturday.

What's happened to Denise? 

Well disaster after disaster my lovelies. Shockingly she was in the bottom two on Saturday, which seems almost ludicrous for arguably the most consistent dancer of the series. Her price for a repeat in the bottom two is 4.003/1

Two weeks ago her partner James Jordan forgot the routine (unthinkable), and last Saturday her dress malfunction clipped off potentially high marks. I still thought her effort was superb with some amazing spins and flicks. Van Outen has breathtaking energy and dances solo in many routines. She has the tango and rumba coming up and she needs a big score to make the final. 

Her rumba in training looks awesome, described by Ian Waite on the BBC as possibly her best dance. Her highest scorer marks are 1.804/5, and quite right too. 

Louis is still the number one, and the favourite in the winner market has warmed up again at 1.768/11 - but he still isn't pulling off the top scores. Smith's 37 points from the rumba was a top effort considering how hard those Latin moves are. He got into character finally, and now heads back to foxtrot and the jive. 

I still believe Smith is beatable on the dancing front, but his strength in the markets for the whole series has been amazing. His highest scorer market odds are 2.506/4, which still might be tempting to lay. 

My pocket rocket Dani Harmer almost landed the bet last week, but she did us proud with her 38 point Charleston. She really is a little cracker that goes full pelt at the routines. She has the American smooth too this Saturday, but interestingly has the Argentine tango - the dance that her partner Vincent loves. 

Their training is looking promising, in particular the slides in and out of transition. I fancy again a decent score, and 3.8014/5 for highest scorer is tempting. The Argentine is the one with the tricky and intricate legwork, if she can pull this off then her odds might contract from the 10.80n/a in the winner market. 

Meanwhile all the action in the eliminationmarket has revolved around Lisa Riley, and at 1.845/6 looks an outstanding bet. There is no way she should be in the final on ability, and her last few weeks have been ropey. Big price layers should take note of her top three price of 6.806/1 - a position I just cannot see her making. The fact she is so short to make the bottom two leads us to the elimination bet, because she is the worst dancer in the competition and won't survive a face-off. 

Lisa, it's been fun whilst it lasted. 

There will be no Viennese waltz this weekend, a dance that originated from it's first steps in 1797. Luckily we will have something from that era performing on the show this year, as Rod Stewart will be singing live on the Christmas special, belting out hits from his new album (ratio of copies purchased by me 0:0). 

Recommended bets:
Back Lisa Riley for elimination @ 1.865/6
Lay Louis Smith as highest scorer @ 2.8615/8