пятница, 21 декабря 2012 г.

Sky Dogs: Make friends with Loner in Oaks showdown

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"Droopys Loner has improved markedly as the event has progressed and appears to have been brought to peak at exactly the right time. Her draw in trap one is only likely to add to her claims and she rates the one to beat"

Droopys Loner's tremendous year can finally be rewarded with a big prize when the Oaks final takes centre-stage at Wimbledon tonight - live on Sky Sports. Dean Childs' charge, placed in the Arc and Classic and so unlucky not to make the Derby final gets the vote of Darrell Williams, who also offers his thoughts on the supporting races.

21:45 Oaks final

T1 Droopys Loner
Top class bitch that ran sixth in this last year and has been placed in the Arc and Classic this season as well as reaching the Derby semi-final. Stamina doubts early on, but appears to have been brought to peak condition at the right time. Early speed should ensure she gets a run and switch to trap one in her favour (six wins from nine in red). The one to beat.

T2 Forest Mollie
Progressive lightly raced bitch that has yet to win outside graded company. Behind trap one in last two rounds and unlikely to reverse that form although is improving with each start here.

T3 Aero Scramble
Returned from a four month layoff for this event and beat her trap one kennelmate in the first round, but a lack of early speed and drawn inside early paced rails seeking rivals will not help her cause.

T4 Lemon Velvet
Showed much improvement, particularly in terms of early speed when winning the fastest of the semi-finals.  Strong sort with form over 575yards in Ireland, but initial worry will be avoiding her speedy neighbour in trap five. However remains under-estimated and a definite chance.

T5 Skate On
Speedy sort (fifth in the Scurry) and the winner of eight of her last twelve races. Has run well in defeat in the last two rounds, but obvious stamina issues and wider draw probably not to her advantage. Would need trouble behind to be in with a chance.

T6 Droopys Hope
Comfortably beat trap one just prior to the event and has done little wrong since. Highly consistent bitch who has missed the top three only once in her last twenty-two races and well drawn outside five railers. An obvious danger to trap one.

Verdict.
Droopys Hope easily beat Droopys Loner in a high-class warm-up race just prior to this event and is well drawn to repeat the feat in the race that matters. Her strong-running style, excellent draw and tremendous consistency gives her a realistic chance of doing so, but Droopys Loner has improved markedly as the event has progressed and appears to have been brought to peak at exactly the right time. Her draw in trap one is only likely to add to her claims and she rates the one to beat. Lemon Velvet showed what she is capable of in the semi-finals and offers a value alternative, although she will need to be on her toes to avoid fast-starting Skate On at lids rise.

19:40 Puppy
Longwood Warrior, an impressive winner over the CD last weekend, can make it four wins from five starts at the expense of Lenson Champ, who needs to prove he can reproduce his form away from Hove.

20:00 Hurdle
A trappy contest but last week's Romford winner Billis Renegade knows how to win races and can add to his five wins (from eight starts) over this trip. Westmead Melanie also has an excellent record here but wins few races these days. Farloe Bowser usually rates a good value alternative. 

20:15 Ladies
Again not an easy race to solve, but Cavans Dancer ran well in the early rounds of the Oaks and is worth staying with.  Ballintine Molly, who made the Oaks and Leger semis, will take advantage if she gets the opening.

20:35 Sprint
Lil Risky runs this track well especially from trap one, but finished behind Guinness Smokie over the CD last month and with the latter's good draw may have to give second best to that rival again.

20:50 Marathon
One of the races of the night but despite Aero Rebel's track-record win at Romford last time, Capoley Ash (three from three over CD) can confirm the form of their Leger night form. Bridge Diva is improving and makes some appeal, although she has not been round here.

21:10 Stayers
Peggys Style, a shade unlucky in the Leger final, has a perfect draw and can gain some small compensation at the expense of Express Trend, who is drawn further out than would be ideal, but is the obvious danger judged on her CD win last month.

21:25 480m
Longwood Bound beat Roses Rockin last week and despite the reversal of the draw is expected to confirm the form, although the latter rates the obvious forecast link. Jaytee Hellcat would be a big threat if cheating an awkward draw.

Recommended Bets
Peggys Style 21:10
Capoley Ash 20:50
Droopys Loner 21:45
Longwood Warrior 19:40

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