Strictly Come Dancing Betting: Let's all lay Louis Smith

Strictly finalist Louis Smith - V for 'lay in the winner market'

With Strictly Come Dancing 2012's final on Saturday, our man with the hipsters Alan Dudman is looking to sign off in style with a series of bets - all against the Olympian Louis Smith.

Not since my return to Cricklewood's finest - Ashton's nightclub in 1996 (see column three weeks ago) has a series of dance routines been so eagerly anticipated (well by me anyway). However I am fairly certain the standard of this weekend's Strictly Come Dancing final will be higher than my 'Dirty Cash' routine back then.

With each celebrity facing three routines to lift the glitter ball, the training this week would have been the toughest and most intense they would have experienced throughout the series. The three dances will comprise of a judges' pick, a show dance and their personal pick. With the standard so high, the point tally will be extremely close.

I think the final is closer than how the layers have priced up the remaining four, and the drift on Denise who is trading at 20.0019/1 in the winner market is astounding. On dancing alone she is no 20/1 shot, however she has been in the bottom two on a couple of occasions recently and perhaps the public have turned their back on the Essex professional.

Louis was lowest scorer with his two dances last Saturday with 31 and 38, yet is still the hot favourite at 1.774/5 to win. The market has been with him for pretty much the whole series - but for me he is not the best dancer. However, he does have the best hair, and it's a style I am still toying with before it goes out of fashion.

Before we look at the contenders, this column hopefully would have guided you to a fairly strong position. Two of my four ante-post picks were Denise and Kimberley, who were both available to back at around 5.04/1 and both have made the final. Whilst my suggestion to side with the female in the male/female market looks good (apart from Louis).

I also made a case for Dani Harmer recently, as a back to lay in the winner market at 22.021/1, and I am pleased the dazzling dancer has made the final four too, but can she win it?

The contenders:

Louis Smith

As mentioned before, his score last Saturday was the lowest aggregate points tally of the four finalists and he still needs to up his game (something I have been saying all series). His show dance to Take That's 'Rule the World' promises some mad lifts in a rumba style, mixed with some Argentine tango (which is Flavia's finest routine).

His judges' pick will be the salsa, so it's another chance to see the 'Dirty Dancing' sequence and that Patrick Swayze lift. He does need to attack this a bit more as he can be a bit careful. Whilst their favourite dance is the Charleston - which was their turning point of the series.

Verdict: Too short in the winner market @ 1.774/5

Dani Harmer

The actress has been a revelation this series, as has her partner Vincent - who I never liked. The pocket rocket collected 38 and 34 points last week, with her Argentine tango proving to be a really brave effort. That was fairly dramatic, which hopefully will put her in good shape for her judges' dance which will be the tango. She's a lot more confident now than she was early on, and she will certainly be more feisty - which is what the routine needs.

I am looking forward to her jive, which means Vincent will once again dress as 'The Fonz'. Ehhhhhhhhhh.

Standby for some really complicated stuff in the show dance, as their music will be Queen's 'Bohemian Rhapsody'. There are lots of changes in the music which will lead to some complicated choreography, but her partner Vincent really has excelled in that department. And the good news is the dance is only about two minutes, and no one can stand more than two minutes of that dreadful Queen song.

Verdict: Might go better than her fourth place price at 2.6213/8, which could present a cheap lay if she can make third.

Denise Van Outen

My wonderful Denise, what has happened? I cannot quite believe what has developed regarding the voting over the last few weeks. Clearly the phone callers have not taken to (or gone off) Van Outen, because her ability on the dance floor and scoring throughout the series does not warrant a couple of those bottom two places.

Her favourite routine will be the Charleston unsurprisingly, and another chance to see that amazing 'Walk Like An Egyptian' effort, which was quite brilliant. The jive from the judges' pick should get 38 points plus as she was superb and super fast earlier in the series. Whilst her show dance promises some amazing lifts and lots of drama.

Her dancing and technique is of the highest quality, as are her lifts and spins. So why is she trading at 20.019/1 to win it?

Verdict: Been the best and most consistent dancer that appears not to be loved by the voters.

Kimberley Walsh

The Girls Aloud singer has been a revelation over the last two weeks, gaining top marks in both Saturdays. Her two 40 point dances finally cracked the 34 barrier. And she has ace partner in Pasha - who is always brave in his choreography.

She has been the big improver and has finally clicked to overtake her rivals, much like Chris Hollins late dash for glory a few years ago. Hollins made an appearance on 'It Takes Two' this week, it seems I am never far away from the spectre of Chrissy H.

Her show dance will be to Beyonce's 'Crazy In Love' and I am looking forward to this. It's a mixture of salsa, samba and cha cha cha with lots of intricate lifts. This has potential for a 40. Her judges' pick will be the romantic Viennese waltz, which was the couple's first 'connection' dance of the series. It's a great routine with highly delicate and technical turns, and she is well up to the task.

Her favourite tango will be unleashed on Saturday with some ambitious lifts planned. Such has been her improvement, and amazing recovery from a bottom two spot, she is looking the likeliest victor with her late burst.

Verdict: Could be the winner at 2.962/1.

Final recommendations:
Lay Louis Smith in winner market @ 1.774/5
Back Kimberley/Dani in 1-2 forecast @ 15.014/1
Back Kimberley/Denise in 1-2 forecast @ 17.016/1
Back female in male/female market @ 2.021/1
Back Denise Van Outen for fourth place @ 2.001/1

And if Louis wins, it's back to Ashton's for me - Merry Christmas everyone.