Jamie Lynch: Breeders' Cup Saturday preview

Excelebration (right) will run in the Mile.

Timeform's Chief Correspondent, on the track at Santa Anita, looks ahead to Breeders' Cup Saturday...

Who won the sweep? Nineteen words into the Breeders' Cup preview and it's the first gratuitous mention of Frankel by Timeform's Chief Correspondent. Blame Craig R. Favel, Breeders' Cup Chief Executive. Jamie M. Lynch had just about got the now-retired Frankel out of his system, the grieving process hurried by a flight to America (not the first gratuitous mention that I'm out here!), when he read in the Los Angeles Times (second gratuitous mention) that, responding to criticism that there were no stars at this year's Breeders' Cup, Favel said: 'When you see that it's possible the world rankings will come out one, two, three with horses that will race here, we have nothing to worry about.'

To defend the Breeders' Cup is absolutely right - I vehemently would, whether or not I was lucky enough to be here - but to do so while pretending Frankel doesn't exist is a bit embarrassing for all concerned. While I'm out here (if you didn't already know), I'm lobbying for Favel to retract his statement and admit he was wrong, just as I admit I was wrong in lobbying for Frankel to go out with a bang in the BC Classic. Having now seen the dirt surface at very close quarters, literally hands on, I'm rather pleased Frankel did his lap of honour at Ascot, where the ground, though bad, wasn't so deep and difficult as this stuff looks.

But the Classic still has to be won, and that's where we'll begin the preview of what remains the single best day's racing in the year in the world, with nine - yes, nine - successive Grade 1 events.

Classic
The $5m Classic is the climactic pinnacle of the Breeders' Cup and, therefore, should be the best race in the world, but it's not even the best race on the card this year. The problem is that the top US three-year-olds have dropped like flies, meaning most eyes are now on Game On Dude, clear favourite to go one better than in 2011, but he's beatable, and one of the others needs to raise their game only marginally to do just that. The talking horse around these parts is Mucho Macho Man, but Ron The Greek is the one I think will 'run huge' as the Americans say. Ron The Greek, who holds a record (at least until 11:40pm on Saturday) as the only horse all year to have beaten Wise Dan, had earlier emphatically won a Grade 1 over this course and distance, which remains one of the few times his stamina has really been tested. The faster they go, the better his chance, and they're virtually guaranteed to go fast, to upset Game On Dude if nothing else.

The real Classic
If the Classic is substandard, and it is, the Mile is a classic. We've got the two best milers in Europe (according to Frankelphobe Favel) and the best from America. It's going to be a thriller, with the form book, also known as Cityscape, suggesting little between them, less so than the market suggests, and there's no meat on Excelebration's price, but I'm still hoping and praying he beats Wise Dan and Moonlight Cloud, for the sake of Frankel, who has two promotional representatives in California: Excelebration and me. Besides the boiler suit for quarantine purposes, Aidan O'Brien looks different wandering around out here, less intense but more assured; maybe Excelebration is the reason why.

Sprint
I came out here thinking Amazombie could be a little under the radar, but it's the exact opposite, all because of how big a deal Halloween is in America. On Wednesday, I felt the odd one out for not wearing a novelty costume of sorts (though little did people know about my Frankel underpants), and everyone seems to have latched onto the Halloween/Amazombie connection, to the extent he'll probably go off odds on, so the advice is to back him in Britain and back him now. Amazombie finished fourth (behind Coil, Capital Account and Jimmy Creed) in the local prep, but he gave away weight and was too close to the strong pace that day, and it should have put him spot on to defend his title, on his home track this time.

Turf
Perhaps Aidan O'Brien's relaxed mood has as much to do with St Nicholas Abbey as Excelebration, another title-defender like Amazombie, but there's a bit of a 'buzz' horse here, namely Trailblazer. Wondering what all the buzz was about, I looked back at his latest start, his American debut, and it was eye-catching, especially given the trip of a mile, to chase home improver Obviously. It would be justice, after Orfevre snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Arc, if Trailblazer snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the Turf.

Juvenile
There's an intriguing issue here beyond the betting, namely the 'L' word: Lasix. For the first time, the substance has been banned across all juvenile races at the Breeders' Cup, the effect of which we're about to find out. Unbeaten in four starts on the East Coast, Shanghai Bobby should win again on all known form, but that known form is Lasix-assisted, and who knows if he'll prove so good now without it? For the benefit and future of the sport in America, I hope he does.

Turf Sprint
Too difficult. The only European contender, Starspangledbanner, had big questions to answer even before the more recent rumours that he'd had a setback whilst out here. In conversation with the American analysts at the track, Unbridled's Note and Reneesgotzip got most votes.

Dirt Mile
In conversation with Timeform's American analysts before I left, their suggestion that likely favourite Shackleford perhaps isn't firing on all cylinders was to some extent supported by what I saw of him during a work morning, when he looked a bit dull in appearance compared to many. That possibly paves the way for Emcee, whose connections were toying with the sprint for him but who should be much more at home over this trip. Owned by Godolphin, the lightly-raced Emcee looks to be peaking at just the right time and won a 7f Grade 1 at Saratoga last month by 4 lengths, with Jersey Town (who subsequently won a Grade 2 convincingly) back in third.

Filly & Mare Sprint
Backed myself a flying, talking, smooth pace-stalking Groupie Doll,
Got to do my best to seize her just 'cause she's a Groupie Doll,
Should be 2/5 and that is why she'll score this open goal,
Got the one and only smooth pace-stalking Groupie Doll.

Juvenile Turf
I don't know what the rhyme and reason is, but Artigiano has galloped harder and longer than any other horse during these work mornings, and it's off-putting to me. He's not the main European hope anyway, as that burden lies with Dundonnell, but he's certainly big enough (one of the biggest two-year-olds out here) and good enough to make light of it. What you need in these races is a high cruising speed, which is exactly what Dundonnell has showcased in a progressive career so far, one of the leading British juveniles, and I think he'll be too hot for the Americans to handle. I'll be sure to point him out to my friend Craig R. Favel, who seems to have a blind spot to horses in those famous colours.

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