четверг, 22 ноября 2012 г.

Handicappers' Corner: Is grey the new black?

Al Ferof could have a crack at the King George on Boxing Day following his win in the PP Gold Cup

Timeform's National Hunt department certainly isn't the first port of call for fashion advice - one senior member (who shall remain nameless) frequently wears an ageing T-shirt with several gaping holes in it - but jumps handicapper Phil Turner can report that grey is very much the "IN" colour this autumn in racing circles...

Cheltenham's Open meeting was dominated by greys, none more so than in Saturday's feature race, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, when Al Ferof (c169p) proved too strong for fellow grey Walkon (c150) in the latter stages, the pair of them having pulled well clear of the remainder in what was a top-notch renewal of this long-standing valuable prize. It was a fine weight-carrying performance by Al Ferof, who was conceding 16 lb to the runner-up, and the way he saw things out in very testing rain-softened ground bodes well with regards to him stepping up in trip for a tilt at the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. Indeed, Saturday's win puts him firmly in the picture for that Grade 1 contest, particularly with the prospect of further improvement to come.

Al Ferof's win was merely the latest piece of overwhelming evidence that 2011/12 was responsible for a vintage crop of novice chasers (an opinion voiced in these pages last winter!) - his contemporaries For Non Stop (c163+) and Cue Card (c169+) have both been runaway winners of other big prizes in recent weeks.

The early signs suggest that the latest crop isn't too shabby either, with David Pipe unleashing two chasing newcomers at Cheltenham who appeal as potential successors to their fellow grey Grands Crus (c159+) - the latter is reportedly due to undergo a breathing operation after flopping behind Al Ferof on Saturday when sent off hot favourite.

Our Father (c151) earned the highest Timeform rating for a novice chaser seen out so far in Britain or Ireland with his twenty-length defeat of another grey Sire Collonges (c144+) on Saturday, though this was one race in which the worsening conditions seemed to take its toll on most of his rivals, so it isn't the easiest piece of form to assess as a result. In addition, the fact Our Father didn't progress after an impressive winning reappearance over hurdles last season slightly tempers enthusiasm for his future prospects (hence the lack of a "p" or "+"), even allowing for the fact he impressed greatly with how he both travelled and jumped on Saturday.

With that in mind, it is Pipe's novice chase winner on the Friday, Dynaste (c148p), who appeals as the even better prospect. Dynaste claimed the scalps of Fingal Bay (c142p) and the Nicholls-trained grey Unioniste (c134) for this chasing debut win, scoring with such authority that we're confident he'll confirm those placings even off level terms (both placed horses were carrying a 5 lb penalty for previous chasing wins). 

The greys had to settle for minor honours in JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial, though both Vasco du Ronceray (h134p) and French import Roc d'Apsis (h117p) shaped as if there could still be better to come in chasing home Far West (h143p), who posted the highest rating of a juvenile hurdler seen out so far in 2012/13. Far West may be described as brown, but it's worth noting that his win helped Ruby Walsh to the leading jockey prize at the Open Meeting, and he's been grey for quite a while now!

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