Betfair Top Five: Brooklyn Nets beware! Sporting anti-climaxes

The Nets' C.J Watson

Jay-Z has splashed the cash to bring the Brooklyn Nets across the water from New Jersey. Can the NBA's new team live up to the hype or will they fall flat? Alex Lee profiles five sporting anti-climaxes...

The Brooklyn Nets (formerly the New Jersey Nets, New York Nets and New Jersey Americans) take on local rivals the New York Knicks in a much-anticipated derby game to open the US basketball season on Thursday. At the time of writing, the game is expected to go ahead in spite of the damage wrought by Hurricane Sandy.

Having lost to the Knicks 97-95 in a pre-season friendly last week, the Nets will be hoping that home advantage - in the shape of their brand new billion-dollar Barclays Center - will tip the balance this time. Betfair punters expect them to get off to a winning start - you can back the Nets at 1.412/5 tobeat the Knicks on Thursday.

Local press reports suggest that, much like the nouveau riche Manchester City and their rivalry with established footballing power Man United, the Nets have nothing like the same amount of support as the Knicks and that they only ran their opponents so close because of the Knicks' mounting injury list. Basketball lovers across the US are secretly hoping the Nets' first competitive gameat their new stadium will turn out to be a sweat-soaked squib for them. With this in mind, we've taken a look at some of sport's all-time anti-climaxes.

Stanford Super Series 2008

The Stanford Super Series was a Twenty20 cricket tournament, sponsored by Allen Stanford, with the so-called 'highlight' a fixture between England and an all-star team from the Caribbean named the Stanford Superstars. While the matches were, in the main, well-attended, the British press was quick to pour scorn on the Stanford's motives, claiming the tournament to be nothing more than a cynical money-making exercise. The much-hyped tournament collapsed following the arrest, subsequent conviction and prison sentence (110 years!) of Stanford for fraud.

Rugby League World Cup 2000

The recent Olympics were a roaring success, but it's not many years since Britain was less than perfect at putting on major sporting events. The ill-fated 2000 Rugby League World Cup immediately springs to mind. Rather than give ourselves any chance of success by fielding a Great Britain XIII, the powers-that-be decided to split the team into England, Scotland, Ireland and Wales, thus effectively scuppering any chance 'we' might have had of winning before the tournament even started. Couple this with some bizarre stadia choices (i.e. venues better known for hosting football than rugby league) and almost every game became a poorly-attended mis-match including the final, predictably contested between Australia and New Zealand, which finished 40-12 to the Kangaroos.

European Cup final Steaua Bucharest v Barcelona 1986

The pre-match billing to the 1986 European Cup Final was all about the artisans versus the artists and how exciting it would be to see two very different teams lock horns. The reality was somewhat different. While it had become de rigeur in European competition for the away side to try and hold out for a draw ahead of going all out for victory at home, Steaua's blatant strategy of playing for penaltiesin a final had never been seen before. Their tactical gameplan was vindicated after a dour and depressing penalty shoot-out, but their brand of anti-football won them no fans and thankfully no subsequent European Cup/Champions League final since has plumped the same dire depths.

Phil Taylor v Gary Anderson Grand Slam of Darts final 2011

In 2011, Phil 'The Power' Taylor beat Gary Anderson 13-12 in a thrilling Players Championship final, so when the pair reached the final of the Grand Slam of Darts later that year, darts fans around the world were looking forward to another cracker. Sadly for Anderson and his fans, the match turned out to be a virtual walkover for Taylor. 'The Power' rarely needed to get out of second gear in a routine 16-4 demolition, with Anderson outclassed.

World Snooker final 1989

It's hard to believe that at one time the wise cracking, heavy-jowled scouse pundit John Parrott was a precocious talent in the world of baize and balls. In 1989, however, that was very much the case as a 24-year-old Parrott blitzed his way to the World Snooker Final atthe Crucible to face Steve 'interesting' Davis. Millions of TV viewers tuned in expecting to see the ultimate battle of swashbuckling youth versus pragmatic experience. With the gripping 1985 Davis/Taylor 'black ball final' still relatively fresh in people's minds, the viewers sat back ready for a feast of snooker. A handful of stifled coughs from the Crucible crowd later, however, Davis had won 18-3 - a margin of victory that has never since been bettered in a World Final.

_ends_

Paul Nicholls Exclusive: Kauto Star is retired

Kauto and Paul pictured in Ditcheat after that legendary fifth King George win

Paul Nicholls and Clive Smith have taken the decision to retire Kauto Star this morning. Paul reflects on the great chaser - and a tough decision - in this Betfair exclusive

The end of an era has finally arrived. Clive was here this morning and we have taken the decision to retire Kauto Star.

We have had nine superb years with the horse but, after seeing him in his work these past few weeks, myself, Clifford and Dan were of the opinion that the time had arrived to retire him.

Of course, as owner, the final decision rested with Clive, but he agreed that the horse had done enough.

Don't get me wrong, Kauto looks and feels as vibrant as ever, as those who saw him at our owners' Open Day last month would testify to. He was mad fresh that day and continues to be as alert as ever and very, very well in himself.

But I suspect Kauto will be like that when he is 20-years-old.

And, deep down, we know he has done enough - and in some ways I think we have to protect him from himself. And maybe ourselves, too. If he did go to Kempton and win or run well, would you really want to run him - or be able to resist the temptation - in the Gold Cup?

I am not so sure.

Kauto is signing off in full health and after a season in which he proved so many people wrong by winning a fifth King George and a fourth Betfair Chase, to add to his two Cheltenham Gold Cups and Tingle Creeks.

Who wouldn't want to train a horse of this quality any more? He is a once-in-a-lifetime horse, after all.

Ever since he won on his debut for me at Newbury on December 29, 2004, the horse has consistently proved himself a class apart. And a 1m Betfair Million bonus in 2007 and 16 Grade 1 wins later, who would bet against him going to Kempton in December and making it number 17?

But sometimes, you have to listen to your head and your heart, and both told me that retirement was the only option.

You are a long time retired - as a certain Sir Alex Ferguson soon realised after stating his intention to step down as United manager some 10 years ago - and particularly if you are as naturally exuberant, intelligent and inquisitive as this great horse.

I get that.

Who else is going to put the up-and-coming youngsters in their place on the 5f gallop now, and put a smile on Clifford's face every morning - no mean feat that! - if he is retired?

But, knowing Kauto, he would still be coming back in after grass at the age of 14 still looking and working brilliantly, and giving us that burning question to answer.

And delaying my honest take on the retirement question would have probably been just selfishness and stubbornness on my part too - the equivalent of a football manager desperately clinging on to his best, if ageing player - and sometimes you have to look to the future and at the bigger picture.

But at the end of the day Kauto is Clive's horse, not mine. And he made the call this morning. And a brave and difficult one it would have been, too, so all credit to him.

But Kauto is also a public horse now, every bit as much as Desert Orchid, and to us here at Ditcheat that had to be a factor in the decision to retire. And while it would have been brilliant to go out on a winning high - remember Dessie's last race was a fall at Kempton - I don't think anyone present at Cheltenham last March would view Kauto's final appearance on a racetrack as a failure.

The spontaneous applause he got from the crowd when he was pulled up genuinely lifted the spirits of all the team here - and it is the team here, from Clifford down, and Clive, that made Kauto what he became - at what was a low moment.

Disappointment was immediately replaced by pride, and that is the overwhelming emotion I feel when looking at the horse.

Ever since then, Clive and I have discussed retirement at regular intervals.

But now the decision has been made it will be very strange to look out of my office window and not see Kauto's head and Denman's arse sticking out the main two boxes - or indeed Clive's Master Minded, for that matter.

Because Kauto Star will be the hardest of acts to follow.

He has given me my best days in the sport and, even though the Gold Cups and King Georges are the pinnacles for any staying chaser, with his 2009 Kempton win breathtakingly impressive, the raw emotion that followed his Haydock win last November will live longest in my memory.

I had to hold myself together to stop myself being in floods of tears that day, and I just about managed it.

But whatever the future holds, I am certain that Clive and all us here at Ditcheat will reflect on a magnificent past and I am sure we will both go on searching for the unattainable in the future.

Namely, a horse to replace the irreplaceable legend that was, and is, Kauto Star.

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Wednesday October 31

Two SmartPlays are in action at Haydock

Timeform bring you bets from Haydock and Kempton on Wednesday...

Last year Semi Colon (15:55 Haydock) reappeared in a fiercely-competitive handicap at Cheltenham, finishing strongly and only narrowly failing to reel in the leader. That run boded well for her future prospects, but she failed to build on that promising effort, seemingly not taking to chasing. There wasn't much promise to be gleaned from her final two outings back over hurdles, but racing fresh could be the key to this mare and a return to the level of form she produced on her reappearance last year would see her go close in this weaker event.

Our second SmartPlay comes in the following race, as we take the chance that Tahiti Pearl can make light of a 10 lb rise in the weights and supplement his recent success at Sedgefield. Sue Smith's gelding didn't produce much on his seasonal reappearance, but he clearly benefitted from that run, jumping and travelling well at Sedgefield, always looking in command. Some of his chief rivals today have questions to answer regarding attitude and jumping ability, so Tahiti Pearl looks the percentage call.

Secretinthepark has swerved a couple of soft-ground engagements lately and might be worth backing on his nursery and all-weather debut in the 19:05 at Kempton. Ed McMahon's colt got off the mark at the first attempt, beating quite a useful sort in Darkening, and appears to have been let in lightly on his nursery bow. He looked fairly clued up on debut, but he still did well to defeat some experienced rivals and any forthcoming improvement should make him difficult to beat.

Timeform SmartPlays:

Back Semi Colon @ 4.94/1 in the 15:55 at Haydock
Back Tahiti Pearl @ 3.953/1 in the 16:25 at Haydock
Back Secretinthepark @ 4.03/1 in the 19:05 at Kempton

Get open access to Timeform data for just 2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic Betting: Royal's rivals to be Delta-nother blow

Royal Delta winning the 2011 Ladies' Classic

Adam Brookes takes a look at the Ladies' Classic, the big race on Friday's Breeders' Cup card.

The average starting price for the winner of the nine-furlong Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, or Distaff as it was known from its inception in 1984 to 2007, over the last decade points to a filly that has been sent off at double-figure odds emerging victorious. Sadly for punters, however, this looks unlikely to be the case this time round with it seemingly inconceivable that the successful party won't be one of the first five in the market, all of which are currently trading at 7.06/1 or shorter on Betfair.

While neither My Miss Aurelia nor Questing have yet taken on their elders in stakes company, many will believe that the three-year-olds are capable of striking in a race that has gone to the age group eight times over the course of the last quarter of a century.

"We feel confident in who she is" said Steve Asmussen of My Miss Aurelia prior to her head victory over Questing in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes in September, just her second start of the season after being sidelined by a shin injury, and the trainer has every right to believe his unbeaten filly, winner of the Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs (beat Grace Hall by three lengths) 12 months ago, is a Ladies' Classic winner-in-waiting. However, while she has already reached the level it usually takes to win this race, she still has a few pounds to find with some of her rivals, including Godolphins' Questing.

Front runner Questing's tendency to hang right in the Cotillion may be slightly off-putting but it shouldn't be overlooked that the dual Grade 1 winner nevertheless battled on gamely in her bid for a fourth consecutive success and now find herself on 7 lb better terms. The worry for her connections, however, is that she may not have the luxury of an uncontested lead this time.

Royal Delta became the first three-year-old to win the Ladies' Classic in seven years when beating fellow sophomore It's Tricky in the race 12 months ago. However, the winner of the Eclipse Award as champion three-year-old filly in 2011, who remained with trainer Bill Mott despite selling for a staggering $8.5 million a month after her Churchill triumph, has taken her form to even greater heights this term.

Since running a below-form ninth in the Dubai World Cup Royal Delta has run to a high-class level on all four outings, winning Grade 2s at Churchill in June and Del Mar in July and the Grade 1 Beldame Invitational at Belmont last time, meeting her only defeat when beaten half a length by Love And Pride in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga, form she is expected to reverse on 10 lb better terms. While this year's Ladies' Classic is a quality renewal, she is very difficult to find fault with and is a more than worthy favourite.

Love And Pride is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by John Velazquez, the same combination responsible for 2003 Ladies' Classic heroine Ashado.

Formerly blinkered (she has been referred to as "tricky" by her trainer and is said to resent the whip), Love And Pride caused an upset racing without that headgear for the first time when beating Royal Delta and multiple top-level winner It's Tricky in the aforementioned Grade 1 in August, her first victory in the highest class. Again without blinkers, Love And Pride matched that level of performance when following up in the Grade 1 Zenyatta Stakes over an extended mile at Santa Anita since, but the fact she is drawn widest of all on Friday and will have Questing to contend with up front tempers enthusiasm of her being able to produce a winning effort.

The last of the five is Awesome Feather who was North America's champion two-year-old filly when trained by Stanley Gold and who is now unbeaten in ten starts having joined Chad Brown. A Grade 1 winner last term, she has improved as a four-year-old this time round, easily landing a nine-furlong race at Gulfstream Park in January and a justifying odd-on favouritism in a mile event at Belmont Park in September. With it likely she has more to offer she can chase Royal Delta home.

Three-year-old Grace Hall, only fifth behind Questing last time, Class Included, a prolific winner at up to Grade 3 level, and Include Me Out, a Grade 1-winning course specialist, complete the eight-runner field.

Recommendation
Back Royal Delta @ 3.55/2 in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic at Santa Anita

Jamie Lynch on the Melbourne Cup: A shark's tale

Mount Athos (left) is reportedly enjoying a smooth preparation for the Melbourne Cup

In his preview of 'The Race That Stops A Nation', Jamie Lynch calls on another Australian emblem, the shark.

The shark has moved with the times. Off the coast of Australia, on the lengthy stretch between Queensland and New South Wales, biologists have discovered a new genus, a hybrid of the common black-tip shark (big) and the Australian black-tip (small), two similarly named but genetically distinct species. These medium-sized, black-tipped arrivistes have evolved for the purpose of range expansion, adapting to climate change, and the result, according to the experts, is a better, stronger animal.

Meanwhile, on mainland Australia, a parallel, if manufactured, process of evolution is perhaps underway for the thoroughbred, likewise for the purpose of range expansion, adapting to racing's climate change, to engineer a better, stronger-staying animal, one who'll defend the nation's prized possession: the Melbourne Cup.

The Melbourne Cup, for so long out of European reach, save for Dermot Weld, is now almost part of the European Union, the power shift heralded by a trio of British-trained seconds (2007-9) and rubber-stamped by back-to-back French wins with Americain and Dunaden, two horses back for more this year, and both in with a big chance of a repeat judging by the Caulfield Cup.

It's the quantity and not just the quality of the overseas challenge that is now pushing the down under horses down and under, highlighted last year, when the European contingent numbered 11 runners (4 more than the previous record), virtually half of the field, and, most telling of all, they filled six of the first seven places.

There are two sides to every story, however, and if the Australian stayers are in fact now subject to bullying in their own back yard, it's only overdue payback for the terror their sprinters have spread over a much longer period of time across the globe, particularly in Britain where, in the last ten years, various Aussie speedballs have between them plundered four King's Stands, two Diamond Jubilees and a Nunthorpe.

The Australians are the undisputed world leaders at breeding and producing sprinters, culminating with the glorious Black Caviar, arguably the finest and fastest there has ever been, but to get to this stage something had to give, and what gave was the quality control at the other end of the spectrum, the stayers, hence the recent vulnerabilities regards the Melbourne Cup.

If you can't beat them, buy them.

During Royal Ascot week, on what remains the best night of my year so far, but the worst next morning, I was lucky enough to attend a racing shindig in London for visiting Australians, amongst them a number of high-rolling governors and owners. Their pride in Black Caviar was matched only by their dismay at the way the Melbourne Cup is going, and several of the owners were combining fun time at Royal Ascot with a covert mission: to see some of the European horses they'd either bought or were considering buying to strengthen the 'home' defence of the Melbourne Cup.

That process has already begun. Look at this year's entries. After the latest acceptance stage, of the 14 Australian-trained horses currently making the cut, only six were born and bred in the Southern Hemisphere, the other eight having been recruited from Britain, Ireland and France, or America as was the case with German-native Sanagas. The acronym ABA is many things to many different countries, such as the Amateur Boxing Association of England in the sporting world, the Asahi Broadcasting Aomori of Japan in the TV world, and the American Bankers Association in the underworld, but in Australia, as far as finding a Melbourne Cup winner goes, it seems that ABA stands for Anywhere But Australia.

It's now not so much 'the race that stops a nation' as 'the nation that shops for a race'.

Such an influx of the highly-rated European horses, coupled with a renewed focus towards the stayers, may mean that, in ten or twenty years time, like the black-tipped shark, the Australian thoroughbred evolves - or re-evolves - to favour stamina over speed, which would at least give us Brits a chance in our sprints. But for now, and for the foreseeable future, the Euros or ex-Euros are the horses to concentrate on for the Melbourne Cup, and this year there's one above all who looks primed, ready and able to win.

At the end of 2011, the talented-but-tricky Mount Athos was transferred to Luca Cumani's stable for the express purpose of winning the 2012 Melbourne Cup, and through this season, under Cumani's expert guidance, we've seen far more of the talented Mount Athos and none of the tricky one.

Cumani knows what it takes - or very nearly takes - to win the Melbourne Cup, Purple Moon beaten half a length in 2007 and Bauer a nose in 2008, and he's been meticulous in his planning and training, all building towards Flemington, to get Mount Athos where he needs to be, in terms of both condition and entry-level rating. Three from three for Cumani, each performance an improvement on the last and each race specifically selected to fit in with the grand plan, Mount Athos has enjoyed an ideal preparation, including, it is reported, since his arrival in Australia on October 1st.

Of course, preparation is nothing without the supportive ability, but Mount Athos definitely has the figures and form to make him a leading contender; the leading contender, in fact. Ratings are what we at Timeform specialise in - it's what we've been doing for over six decades - and Timeform ratings tell the story to a large extent. After his progress this summer, Mount Athos is rated 123, higher than Red Cadeaux (122), Jakkalberry (116) and Cavalryman (118), and yet in the Melbourne Cup he receives weight off the first two (1.5 kg, effectively 3 lb) and carries the same as the last-named. In short, our ratings suggest Mount Athos has been let in comparatively lightly by the Victoria handicapper.

What's more, it's a very solid 123 rating, and a minimum if anything. In a valuable handicap at York back in July, Mount Athos administered what amounted to a 13 lb beating - by 4 lengths, conceding 8 lb - to High Jinx, who is now rated 118 following his seconds in better company including a Group 1 in France. Then, a month later in a Group 3 at Newbury, Mount Athos made short work of five rivals, amongst them the first and second from the 2011 St Leger.

He'll obviously need some luck, regards both the draw and the inevitable traffic, but luck is when preparation meets opportunity, they say, and Mount Athos has been painstakingly prepared for this long-range opportunity.

The Melbourne Cup has a rich history and pride of place in Australia, its heritage for so long safeguarded by legacy, the human ethos, and sometimes the equine genes, passed on from one generation to the next, remembering that 1971 Cup winner Silver Knight sired 1984 winner Black Knight. Perhaps one day, in homage to the evolved Australian shark, an evolved Australian thoroughbred named Black-Tip Knight will reclaim the Melbourne Cup for the natives, but we're in the age of a European stranglehold and, again this year, the local horses have a mountain to climb, known specifically as Mount Athos.

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Verdicts for racing in Australia and New Zealand at timeform.com/free/

Premier League: Mancini must be left alone at Man City

Roberto Mancini is proving a magnet for criticism this season

Christian Crowther puts together a case for the defence on behalf of Manchester City's much-maligned manager Roberto Mancini...

Manchester City may have come a cropper in the Champions League group of death but, given they sit just one point off the Premier League summit, it really does seem absurd how much stick Roberto Mancini has come in for.

The champions of England recently announced that Barcelona's ex-director of football Txiki Begiristain - in place under Pep Guardiola's management - will take up a similar role with City, fuelling speculation that it could mark the start of a Spanish overhaul at the club.

The facts are though that Mancini's men remain the only unbeaten team in the Premier League following their win over Swansea, yet still the Italian is constantly grilled about his tactics and his side's performances.

Added to this, City currently represent the form team in the top flight with four wins on the bounce and, after Chelsea's defeat to fellow title hopefuls Manchester United, the Blues can now be backed at 3.02/1 to retain their crown.

Man City are the only team who have triumphed over West Brom at the Hawthorns and Fulham at Craven Cottage this season, which is a marker of the resilience Mancini has established, a crucial weapon in the armoury of any would-be champions.

The late winners in both those away games show that City if nothing else are tenacious enough to keep going until the very end of games, an attribute which ultimately won them the league last term.

Although Manchester City's task of qualifying from Group D is looking increasingly difficult - you can back them at 6.611/2 - any team which is placed in a group with Real Madrid and the champions of Germany and the Netherlands is going to be severely tested.

The argument that says a lot of City's players carry Champions League experience and so should fare better does carry validity, but as a collective unit their Champions League involvement is limited to just the one crusade.

When you compare this to Real Madrid's virtually unbroken involvement in the competition and Borussia Dortmund's own rich history in Europe, City's travails have to be put in perspective.

Even when Manchester United did the unthinkable by exiting at the group stage last season, Sir Alex Ferguson somehow escaped with faint-hearted criticism in comparison, despite his side having a far easier group on paper.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Liverpool and Swansea to give us goals

Brendan Rodgers will be desperate for a win tonight

It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. Here are his selections:

Bet 1: Atletico MG (HOME) @ 1.5 (1/2)

Our home win this week comes from Brazil as second placed, Atletico MG take on 14th placed, Flamengo.

Atletico MG are enjoying a fine campaign under manager, Cuca, and they are still in with an outside chance of becoming champions. That would require leaders, Fluminense, to slip up in the run in, but even if they don't, Copa Libertadores qualification looks pretty safe.

The Rooster have gone undefeated at home all season, with the only slip ups being a trio of draws. In their last fixture at Estdio Independncia, they showed their class to beat the aforementioned, Fluminense, by three goals to two.

Flamengo's away form has been pretty dire; three wins all year and four defeats in their last half dozen. They are conceding too many goals on their travels, shipping 13 in the last six.

Bet 2: Malaga (AWAY) @ 1.44 (4/9)

We go to Spain in search of our away win this week as Malaga should make their class tell in their Copa del Rey Cup tie against Cacereno.

Cacereno are plying their trade down at the Segunda B level and while they are unbeaten in six, they haven't faced anyone of Malaga's class. They have even lost two of their last four at home, and that is in a division two tiers below their opponents this evening.

Malaga will of course be resting players for this one given their European commitments, but their second string are still more than adequate and they will be looking to impress manager, Manuel Pellegrini.

Bet 3: Liverpool v Swansea (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.61 (8/13)

Our goal fest comes from England as Brendan Rodgers faces his former club in the Capital One Cup.

Liverpool have a pretty thin squad so while they will be playing a weakened line up tonight, it is likely to still feature household names. Jamie Carragher will no doubt captain the team but age is catching up with him and he has often proved a liability in recent appearances.

Stewart Downing, Joe Cole and the promising, Oussama Assaidi could well be the main attacking protagonists and they all have statements to make to the manager.

Swansea will chop and change their XI as well, but their squad isn't that deep either, so the team won't be overly weakened. Danny Graham has struggled this year but he will be on a mission to get back his starting place and he could have some joy against the Liverpool back four.

Both of these two have been involved in some pretty high scoring affairs this season, especially in cup competitions, and I expect more of the same tonight.

Bet 4: Cagliari v Siena (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.61 (8/13)

We finish in Italy for what looks like a drab, low scoring game between Cagliari and Siena in Serie A.

Cagliari are 11th in the table after picking up 11 points from their opening nine games. They have scored just six goals to date though which is the joint lowest in the division. Their matches are averaging a mere 1.89 goals each time and their last three in a row have all finished 1-0.

Siena are rock bottom of the table with a paltry three points. They did have six deducted though so they aren't a write off just yet. As far as the goals go; they have scored nine and conceded 10, giving their games an average of 2.11 goals per 90 minutes.

Recommended Multiple
Back Atletico MG @ 1.5 (1/2); Back Malaga @ 1.44 (4/9); Back Over 2.5 Goals in Liverpool v Swansea @ 1.61 (8/13); Back Under 2.5 Goals in Cagliari v Siena @ 1.61 (8/13); The Multiple pays approximately 5.64 (9/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

Haydock Placepot: Wednesday October 31

Today's Placepot comes from Haydock

It's Halloween, but hopefully there won't be too many frights in store for Placepot hunters at Haydock.

13:40 - Both hurdling debutants among the quintet have form on the Flat that would afford them plenty of respect, but Right To Rule's Flat form wasn't bad either and, with experience on his side, he's assured of a spot. We're going to throw in one of the debutants alluded to above, namely Deepsand from the Tim Easterby yard. He has plenty of form on testing ground already and probably has more speed than Suraj, which would be a help if this race turns messy.

14:15 - Plenty of interest among the runners for this handicap chase, for all there are only seven of them. Pairing Harris Hawk and Newton Tonic should be enough to see us through, though. Both are open to improvement over fences, while Newton Tonic's fitness is likely to be assured after a recent blow-out at Ffos Las.

14:50 - Normally, we'd be reluctant to take short-priced favourite Ma Filleule on her British debut following a near six-month absence, but with a complete lack of anything solid against her we're going to bank on her. There is plenty to recommend her, fitness doubts aside, as she's got plenty of experience over jumps up to a borderline-useful level, while she's also a half-sister to very smart chaser Mon Parrain.

15:20 - This looks far from the best race of its type, especially in terms of those looking for solid Placepot options. Our two best bets are represented by Ballybough Gorta and Allanard; the former might have had enough for the time being and the latter is rendered somewhat inconsistent by his slap-dash jumping, but both have looked in form of late and are well worth chancing.

15:55 - Again, few of these look sufficiently reliable to command a place in our perm, especially with the normally reliable Parc des Princes out, so we're going to have to take the best fit. San Telm is arguably still improve, has fitness guaranteed and will surely stay the trip, so he's in. Second selection Yesyoucan looks to have been handed a pretty severe mark, but he's potentially open to plenty of further improvement for Brian Ellison and the step up to two and a half miles.

16:25 - Another race in which a would-be selection, in this case Prosecco, has been taken out. Tahiti Pearl would have been in alongside Prosecco anyway, while Bhaltair is preferred as our backup option with cheekpieces looking to spark a return to form in him last time.

Selections:

13:40 - 2, 4
14:15 - 2, 6
14:50 - 6
15:20 - 5, 6
15:55 - 4, 5
16:25 - 1, 6
= 32 lines

Timeform Radio Tips: Candy can Rock Catterick

Rock On Candy runs at Catterick today.

Stephen Molyneux supplies three bets for Tuesday's racing...

The first 2 furlongs of the 14:20 at Catterick will be crucial, if Dr Red Eye and Polish World engage in a battle for the lead then it could set things up for a closer and the one to take advantage will hopefully be Nameitwhatyoulike who is rarely that far off the pace himself. He didn't stay at York last time but had been in good form prior to that yet has fallen below his last winning mark, that victory coming on similar ground at Doncaster earlier in the season.

In the wider scheme of things Lord Buffhead wouldn't be of any great interest off his current mark but he's been found a weak race in the 15:40 at Yarmouth and he should take some beating. He's already won twice this year on a very soft surface, has given his running more often than not in between and tactically should be in the perfect stalking position throughout, all-in-all looking a very solid proposition at around the 3.55/2 mark.

Rock On Candy stands out amongst some exposed sprinters in the 16:20 at Catterick and is worth supporting at 9.417/2. She's just had the two starts this year but shaped better than the bare result on both occasions, justifiably in need of the first run then meeting trouble behind Aubrietia at Nottingham last time. Both of those races had more depth to them than this and assuming she feels no ill effects of this third outing in a month, she should go well.

Timeform Radio Tips
Back Nameitwhatyoulike @ 6.25/1 in the 14:20 at Catterick
Back Lord Buffhead @ 3.55/2 in the 15:40 at Yarmouth
Back Rock On Candy @ 9.417/2 in the 16:20 at Catterick

Timeform's Horses To Follow for the 2012/3 NH season is out now! Get an interview with Donald McCain and ante-post advice as well as 65 horses to follow from Britain and Ireland. Get your copy now!

Sheffield United v Portsmouth: Visitors to play up again

Michael Appleton's handling of chaos at Pompey has been praised

Michael Lintorn expects Portsmouth to ruin Sheffield United's plans to pull level with leaders Tranmere...

Sheffield United v Portsmouth, Monday 19:45, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Sheffield United 1.774/5, Portsmouth 5.39/2, The Draw 3.953/1

With blistering League One pacesetters Tranmere running out of gas in recent weeks, the Football League's only unbeaten team Sheffield United have the opportunity to go joint-top tonight.

And given that the fixture determining their fate is a home match against a Portsmouth side ten points worse off in 15th who built a squad from scratch in the summer, you'd assume that nudging up alongside Ronnie Moore's men is a formality for the hosts, but don't be so certain.

Though Pompey unsurprisingly started slowly as the players acclimatised to both new surroundings and one another, they retain a fondness for disturbing far more tranquil opponents.

Four times already this season, they have avoided defeat away to top-half clubs, a stunning 3-0 triumph at Crawley and a 2-2 draw with MK Dons among those successes. They are also gradually gaining consistency, claiming four victories in their last six league encounters.

And Sheffield United's loss-free opening sequence hasn't been entirely convincing, featuring as many draws as wins (seven of each), including four in their past five at Bramall Lane, while at no stage have they won three in a row.

Recent 1-0 wins against Preston and Walsall fail to mask the lack of goal threat that has plagued them since star striker Ched Evans was jailed in April. They have scored one goal or fewer in 12 of their 14 league games and are up against a team who have averaged two a match in their last six.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Unsurprisingly, in light of the above statistics about the blunt Blades attack - which has been less prolific than Portsmouth's despite far superior results - they are under 2.5 goal magnets, with nine of their last ten League One outings fulfilling the criteria.

Portsmouth's tendency to entertain has prompted plumper odds than usual of 2.021/1, and with just one Bramall Lane tie all season creeping over that mark, they are well worth snapping up.

Best Bet: Lay Sheffield United @ 1.784/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.021/1

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Horsens' play leads to something more

Horsens love their vintage Tottenham kits

There could be three to four goals at Tre-For Park this evening

Life is good in Northern Europe. No national embarrassment about having to go cap in hand for a bailout from your more responsible cousins, and loads of goals.

There were six in Denmark yesterday and that's where we're staying today. Both teams have scored in five of AC Horsens' last six home games and also in all six of FC Copenhagen's road matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.855/6 in AC Horsens v FC Copenhagen

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: An inextricable link to success

Matt thinks The Fugue can win at Santa Anita

Timeform's Matt Gardner reckons the 2012 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf prize can be won by the Europeans, although the home nation also boasts a couple of strong contenders...

When imagining things that complement each other, that truly go well together, the mind instantly springs to gastronomy, a world in which life is all about balance and combination. Lamb and mint and beef and horseradish are almost the staples, but even more rudimentary conquests such as garlic and bread, fish and chips and bacon and sandwich most likely qualify.

Combinations in racing are difficult to establish, mainly as one partner is usually not around long enough for the enterprise to flourish, but a number do readily scream for attention. The soon to be non-existent tie between Frankie Dettori and Godolphin endured for 18 years, the great man becoming synonymous with Sheikh Mohammed's Royal Blue, and would come to the fore on many a list, with the likes of Piggott and O'Brien, Hannon and Hughes and La Estrella and Southwell also in the shake-up.

We're going to play a risky game now and go into the realms of the unknown, as we attempt to predict/anticipate a match made in heaven. Past efforts at this game have proved futile, as sticky toffee pork pie and beer-battered pasta carbonara evidence, but this one we can be confident about. It is The Fugue and Santa Anita, specifically the mile and a quarter distance of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

The John Gosden-trained three-year-old made quite an impression on her sole start last season, landing a Newmarket maiden, and she ran a respectable fourth in the 1000 Guineas on her return, taking her time to pick up over an inadequate eight furlongs and unlikely to have been suited by the soft ground. The Fugue went on to easily land the Musidora at York and was most unlucky to finish only third in the Epsom Oaks, being badly hampered about half a mile from home and left poorly placed before finishing strongly. She maybe found the race coming too soon when second in the Ribblesdale just three weeks later, again with conditions possibly against her, but she got right back on track with success in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, impressing greatly with the style of her win.

The Fugue was sent off favourite to beat the previous year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runner-up Shareta in the Yorkshire Oaks but she probably hit the front too soon, seeming to idle a little before being caught by that rival close home. That effort represented a slight improvement in her form and left the impression that there was yet more to come if things went more her way, and there is every chance that they will do on Friday night.

Everything about The Fugue, from her close-coupled physique to her rapid acceleration, gives definite indication that she will be matched ideally with the tight turf track at Santa Anita. The manner in which the race is played out is not a major concern, as she will travel strongly off a quick pace before making her move or will do her rivals for a turn of foot off a steady pace, and she appeals as being a cracking bet at 3.55n/a.

Let us not get too carried away however, as The Fugue does have several creditable rivals to overcome. Ridasiyna will be her main adversary in the eyes of many but, in direct contrast to The Fugue, the suspicion is that the Mikel Delzangles-trained filly will not find things to her liking in the US. It is no coincidence that her latest improvement came about when faced with a stern test at a mile and a quarter, mowing down Izzi Top in the Longchamp straight and winning the day through stamina on heavy ground. Track configuration and the likely going will be against her, and more dangerous rivals lurk among the remainder.

Nahrain, trained by Roger Varian, enjoyed a fantastic first season in training last year, gaining four wins and narrowly being touched off in this event, but her first two starts of this campaign were something of a disappointment. Her third to Up in the Blandford Stakes yielded more positive signs however, and she confirmed that impression when returning to her best with success in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park, beating Zagora by half a length. She appears to be coming to the boil at just the right time, and a bold bid cannot be ruled out.

The US contingent looks to be headed by Marketing Mix and In Lingerie, who are both of interest for very different reasons. The former has won seven of her 10 starts since being switched to turf and has taken her form to another level in her last three starts, winning a Grade 2 at Woodbine before narrowly being denied by the reopposing I'm A Dreamer in the Beverly D. Stakes and landing the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes over C&D last month. A repeat of her latest piece of form would put her bang there, and her level of consistency will give her supporters a further boost.

In Lingerie joined current trainer Todd Pletcher following her debut success and she has improved steadily since, landing the Grade 3 Bourbonette Stakes and the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Her latest outing, when winning the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland, was her best effort yet and there is every chance that she could prove capable of better still, but there is a sticking point in that this will be her turf debut. Were she to take off on the surface a la Marketing Mix she would have an excellent chance of challenging The Fugue, but it is something of an unknown and makes it difficult to really get behind her.

Like cheese and biscuits, white wine and fish and chocolate and orange, The Fugue and Santa Anita can soon become inextricably linked, not so much in the history of cuisine but as a small part of the Breeders' Cup antiquity. Playing the 3.55n/a currently available about her ought to yield enough profit to keep us in caviar and champagne for a period of time, let's just hope that Nahrain cannot go one better than last year, Marketing Mix isn't quite good enough and In Lingerie doesn't take to turf.

Recommendation
Back The Fugue @ 3.55n/a in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Breeders' Cup Memories: Ghostzapper

Ghostzapper wins the 2004 Classic.

Ghostzapper's Classic triumph of 2004 is more than deserving of a place on any Breeders' Cup memories list...

Ghostzapper was an outstanding performer, winning nine of his 11 starts and voted US Horse of the Year in 2004. It was in October of 2004 that Ghostzapper landed his Breeder's Cup Classic, putting up one of the most memorable performances in Breeders' Cup history and cementing his status with a Timeform performance rating of 137.

The 2004 Classic was an excellent renewal, featuring most of the top dirt horses in training in the US alongside one from Japan, and the form has a strong feel to it with the first two, Ghostzapper and Roses In May, having won all of their eight races in the year prior to that night. Ghostzapper ultimately prevailed by three lengths with a further four back to the third horse, Pleasantly Perfect, whilst defending champion Azeri could only muster a fifth-placed finish.

Ghostzapper settled comfortably in the lead under Javier Castellano, setting a relatively steady pace, but it was the injection of tempo on the home turn that burns brightly in the memory, Ghostzapper well and truly putting his rivals to the sword, and they had no response as he drew clear in the final furlong, still full of running as he crossed the line over a trip that was a furlong further than he had previously encountered.

Ghostzapper's success in the Classic is also of note for being legendary trainer Bobby Frankel's only triumph in the great race, and goes down as one of Frankel's five Breeders' Cup winners. Ghostzapper would go on to grace the track on just one more occasion, winning the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap with consummate ease, but he was subsequently retired due to a chipped sesamoid. His performance in the Classic has not been bettered since, Zenyatta perhaps the only one to get close in terms of style, but Ghostzapper's triumph will go down as one of the all-time greats.

US Election Daily Update: Supreme Court may decide this election

Could this election all come down to this: the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution?

With Hurricane Sandy ravishing the East Coast, and millions of voters likely to face difficulties in casting their votes, are we, asks Jack Houghton, about to see the Supreme Court play another central role in US history.

Brought up as they have been - especially culturally - in an Anglo-American society, teaching British students about the US system of Government is less about helping them unearth a new topic about which they know little, and much more about unravelling a series of tightly-held misconceptions learnt from a media that gives a skewed picture of how transatlantic politics works.

Uppermost among the misconceptions is the idea that the President is somehow omnipotent. Tagged as "the leader of the free world" - and without doubt exercising huge influence when it comes to foreign affairs - it surprises most to find out how constitutionally and practically limited the domestic powers of the President actually are.

Dislodging this President-centric view is done in large part by pointing to the extensive powers of the other branches of government, especially Congress, and by highlighting that, for all we may seek to tell the history of America through the actions and inactions of Presidents, it has often been a little-advertised institution, the Supreme Court, who has had a larger role to play. For example, civil rights - in the widest sense of that term - have been more significantly progressed and halted not by the likes of Lincoln and Kennedy, but by a slowly evolving panel of nine unelected justices.

Heading into this fascinating election, the Betfair market sees Obama (1.4640/85) holding a comfortable lead, and my excellent co-contributors, Paul Krishnamurty and Eliot Polak, with varying degrees of certainty, view those odds as justified.

However, with polls showing around a third of the Electoral College votes either tied, or within the margin-of-error, and the likely effects of the previously-reported Hurricane Sandy unknowable, I can't share their surety. In fact, in the last few hours, as I've watched on television as storms have ravished the East Coast, I've begun to think that the Supreme Court might be about to play another pivotal role in US history and help decide the outcome of this election.

Imagine the scenario. As a result of adverse weather, a number of polling stations are closed, especially those in Democratic precincts. Due to power outages and public-transportation cessation, a disproportionate amount of Democratic voters are effectively disenfranchised. What's more, electronic eligibility-checking and vote-counting is out of operation, which leads to questions as to the veracity of the vote, especially, again, in those Democratic areas.

Although this paints an extreme - and probably unlikely - picture of what the effects of Hurricane Sandy might be, it is worth remembering that any perceived irregularity in a key state, however small, would likely spark a legal challenge from the losing side that would have to be judged by the Supreme Court.

It wouldn't be the first time it had happened, of course. The Supreme Court intervened in 2000 to halt the Florida recount, handing Bush the Presidency. The legal arguments there centred on the Fourteenth Amendment, and in any of the scenarios above, the same ground would likely be in play: with the justices asked to consider whether any citizens have had their privileges abridged.

All of this, of course, smacks of some over-dramatised episode of the West Wing. The more likely outcome on November 6th is that we will see an uncontested vote, with no doubt as to whom the next President will be.

But then, it all adds to the increasingly hazy picture of who is likely to win this thing, which is why, as much as I think Obama is the most likely winner, those odds of 1.4640/85 still look very short to me.

Capital One Cup Tips: Boro can pull off a mini upset in North East showdown

Can the Boro boys get one over on local rivals Sunderland?

Andy Tongue predicts more woe for Martin O'Neill's Sunderland at home to Middlesbrough, in the pick of the night's Capital One Cup action

The evening's Capital One Cup programme promises five games with plenty of intrigue and potential punting angles. I've previewed Reading v Arsenal in depth, but there is plenty of value to be found in the other fixtures.

The game that catches the eye is the tasty North-East derby between Sunderland and Middlesbrough at the Stadium of Light.

The home side have won just once this season, drawing six times and losing once, but the key stat is they have scored only six goals in nine games. Steven Fletcher has scored five of them so stop him and you can stop Martin O'Neill's men. They won comfortably enough at MK Dons in the third round but Boro are a step up from those opponents, climbing nicely into third place in the Championship after Saturday's win at home to Bolton.

They will be roared on by a decent following from Teeside and have to be backed to take something from the game. A Boro win at 5.59/2 is tempting but we'll settle for laying the home side at a skinny 1.75/7 with high hopes of getting paid out.

Aston Villa were disappointing again at home to Norwich on Saturday and ended up hanging up for a point having been reduced to ten men. Paolo di Canio's Swindon are going well enough in League One and while Paul Lambert is expected to put out a strong side for Villa, there are enough issues in their camp currently (Darren Bent's alleged falling-out with the boss to the fore) for the visitors to be a lay at 2.3411/8.

Leeds entertain Southampton having disposed of Everton at Elland Road in the last round and will fancy their chances of claiming another Premier League scalp in the form of the struggling Saints.

But a skinny price of 2.6213/8 for a home win suggests that is more than factored into the price, so we'll look elsewhere for a recommended bet. Before Saturday's 1-0 home defeat to Birmingham, Leeds had scored in every home game this season and we expect them to get on the scoresheet against the visitors' leaky defence. Nigel Adkins men have scored freely enough themselves despite their travails thus far so both teams to score looks nailed on in this one.

The final game of the evening sees Wigan at home to Bradford and we'd expect a fairly comfortable home win for Roberto Martinez's side against a side who have already been beaten five times in League Two this season. But at 1.32 the Latics seemed priced about right so it's one to add to your multiple rather than bet on individually for us.

Best Bet
Lay Sunderland at 1.75/7

Other Recommended Bets
Lay Aston Villa at 2.3411/8

Leeds vs Southampton. Back both teams to score at 1.538/15

Breeders' Cup Turf: Abbey to just Nic it

St Nicholas Abbey is narrowly preferred in the Turf.

Timeform's Tony McFadden takes a look at the Breeders' Cup Turf, a race for so long the preserve of the Europeans...

Much like Ian Poulter in a Ryder Cup singles match, the Breeders' Cup Turf has traditionally been a 'gimme' for the raiding party. In fact, such has been the European stranglehold on the contest, 10 of the last 12 renewals (if you include High Chapparal's dead-heat) have been won by European-trained contenders. However, if the betting is to be believed, things could be different this year with US-trained Point of Entry shading last year's winner, St Nicholas Abbey, at the head of the Betfair ante-post market.

This year's Ryder Cup was, of course, a memorable and nail-biting affair, going right down to the wire as Europe launched a late challenge to snatch victory at the last conceivable moment; Timeform ratings suggest that the Breeders' Cup Turf could be an equally hard-fought contest with little to separate the two principals.

It isn't difficult to see why Point of Entry commands such a prominent position towards the head of the market; he has quite clearly established himself as the pre-eminent middle-distance turf performer in America, racking up a string of wins, including three at the top level. In the past, numerous horses have dominated the American turf scene only to come up short when pitched into battle with their European rivals. However, there is reason to suspect that Point of Entry has achieved a level of form certainly comparable with what the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Shareta have produced.

His penultimate effort, when winning the Sword Dancer Invitational, was a tremendously impressive performance, quickening clear under a hands-and-heels ride having loomed up travelling strongly behind the leaders. Although subsequently not quite so good when landing another Grade 1 affair, the Joe Hirsch Invitational, it should be noted that he was encountering a softer surface, a surface which appeared to blunt the turn of foot that had been seen to such great effect in his two preceding triumphs. It may be dangerous to simplify matters, but the overriding impression is that conditions are likely to play an important factor in determining his prospects; the greater the emphasis on speed the better his chance.

The patriotism of Americans is renowned worldwide, but even the most ardent supporter of Point of Entry must concede that St Nicholas Abbey represents a significant threat. Aidan O'Brien's colt has always been held in high regard and, for all that he may not have quite hit the heights expected of him following his two-year-old campaign, it should be remembered that he is a four-time winner at the highest level, boasting a Breeders' Cup Turf win amongst his greatest victories.

Last year's renewal was run at a steady pace and, despite not being ideally positioned, St Nicholas Abbey quickened impressively to seal the contest with the minimum of fuss. That represented a career-best effort at the time, but he has been at least as good this year, adding another Coronation Cup to his haul, along with a highly-respectable run behind Frankel at York in the Juddmonte International. Favoured by fast ground, the manner of his victory last year suggests that he is also ideally suited to the tight nature of American Turf tracks and it would be no surprise were he to prove capable of even better returning to a similar set of conditions to those under which he thrived last year.

One small factor possibly worth taking into account is the harder schedule St Nicholas Abbey has faced this time. In the build-up to last year's race, O'Brien's charge was given a mid-season break after the King George, taking in a relatively soft 'prep' race in the Prix Foy before running in the Arc. However, this time he has taken in a gruelling race in the Juddmonte International before competing in two other top-level affairs, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc. It could prove to have minimal impact, but, at this late point in the season when some horses start to lose their form, it is worth considering.

O'Brien has another string to his bow in the shape of last year's Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach. Although back to something like his best behind Point of Entry last time, it is difficult to see him reversing the form with either the American challenger or St Nicholas Abbey, who proved superior in Meydan. Some will argue that Treasure Beach's price compensates for this, but he will probably need a few of his rivals to underperform if he is to prevail.

It is certainly worth touching on the claims of another European challenger, Shareta. Second in the Arc last year, finishing ahead of St Nicholas Abbey and the pacemaker Treasure Beach, Shareta has returned in good heart this year, winning a pair of Group 1 contests, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille, before finding herself unsuited by the testing conditions which prevailed at Longchamp. She has a bit to find with the market leaders, but it is certainly not implausible that she will find the necessary improvement, particularly with quick conditions likely to suit.

The Ryder Cup may be an event reserved purely for Americans and Europeans, but the Breeders' Cup is not, and there is an outside prospect of Trailblazer taking the prize back to Japan. A smart performer, Trailblazer has fallen short when thrown into Group 1 company, but his victory in the Group 2 Kyoto Kinen was a good effort and wouldn't be too far off the standard required to make the frame here. He is unlikely to be carrying quite so much support as Orfevre was in his narrow defeat in the Arc, but, honestly, have you ever seen such impassioned support as THIS?

Tiger Woods famously conceded the last hole in this year's Ryder Cup, gifting victory to Europe, but if this set of Europeans are to retain their Breeders' Cup Turf title they will almost certainly have to battle all the way to the wire. There is precious little to separate St Nicholas Abbey and Point of Entry, both looking to hold exceptional claims, but what does distinguish the two is the price that they are trading at; St Nicholas Abbey is priced at 4.216/5, half a point bigger than the favourite, and the play at this stage has to be to side with O'Brien's contender, for all Point of Entry is hugely respected.

Recommendation:
Back http://sports.betfair.com/horse-racing/market?id=1.106792291 in the Breeders' Cup Turf

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Comments for the US & Canada at http://www.timeform.com/free/.

US Handicappers' Corner: Andy all Action at Laurel

Action Andy was successful at Laurel.

Graeme North looks back at the best of the US action...

The hurricane that is menacing the Eastern seaboard of the United States at the time of writing promises to cause major upheaval but with Breeders Cup just a few days away and only a handful of minor Graded races run since our last update there was little that kicked up enough of a thoroughbred storm to alter much the prevailing order of leading horses across all age groups.

Newsdad achieved joint most of the older horses returning a figure of 117 in winning his second G2 race of the year, the Fayette Stakes at Keeneland. With no Point Of Entry among his rivals this time, he stayed on strongly in a well-run race at a shorter trip than usual to win going away. All his wins have come either on the turf at Gulfstream Park or the polytrack at Keeneland. Action Andy also ran to 117 when beating the reliable three-year-old Il Villano (ran right up to his 116 best) in the $350,000-dollar Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash on a strong Laurel card. Still progressive at the age of five, Action Andy has thrived since reverting to six furlongs on the dirt after a recent turf campaign over further.

The Fayette also marked the first appearance since the Kentucky Derby of G1 winner Take Charge Indy who had been side-lined with a leg injury. He ran as though he needed the race but not before showing up strongly for a long way and in achieving 114 did enough to think he is capable of repeating before long the 117 he recorded when having Union Rags back in third in the Florida Derby back in March.

Not surprisingly, neither of the two Graded races for juveniles at Churchill Downs on Sunday saw winning performances to trouble the best of those biding their time for the Breeders' Cup. All the same, Uncaptured recovered from his blip in the G3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine (where he lost his unbeaten record) to up his rating to 116 from 114 in winning the G3 Iroquois Stakes with possible non-stayer Overanalyse (remains on 117) back in third, while Sign (112p) looked a filly of some promise when following up her win in a Saratoga maiden in the G2 Pocahontas Stakes.

With the Breeders' Cup in mind, the form of the G1 Dixiana Breeder's Futurity won by Juvenile Turf entry Joha at Keeneland earlier this month took a couple of knocks at the weekend and his rating has been reduced from 114 to 112.

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Comments for the US & Canada at http://www.timeform.com/free/.

Timeform Radio Tips: Ace to hit the mark at Bangor

Donald McCain: Trainer of Avenging Ace.

David Cleary heads to Bangor for Monday's bets...

A busy start to the week, with eight-race cards at both Leicester and Redcar on the Flat and seven over the jumps at Bangor. A fifteen-runner beginners chase in which thirteen are making their debut over fences is, on the face of it, not an obvious race for a bet, but the 14.00 at Bangor appeals most of this afternoon's fare. Avenging Ace is the best hurdler in the race by some way, judged on his improved effort when last seen, at Perth in April. He won a point in Ireland in his younger days and is about the most likely to make the transition to fences in the field. Avenging Ace is also likely to be primed for this afternoon, in contrast to a few of the other chasing debutants. Avenging Ace ought to be a clear favourite here.

The handicap chase at 15.00 has attracted just six runners, but four of them are prone to mistakes and another is lazy and temperamental. The one with a positive profile is Bubbly Bruce, who is totally unexposed over fences. He's been a bit fragile so far over jumps, but his stable is in good form and this race won't take much winning.

Timeform Radio Tips
Back Avenging Ace @ 5.95/1 in the 14.00 at Bangor
Back Bubbly Bruce @ 5.69/2 in the 15.00 at Bangor

Timeform's Horses To Follow for the 2012/3 NH season is out now! Get an interview with Donald McCain and ante-post advice as well as 65 horses to follow from Britain and Ireland. Get your copy now!

NBA 2012/13: Western Conference preview

Dwight Howard will boost the Lakers this season

The much anticipated 2012-13 NBA season is finally upon us. Nick Shiambouros assesses the teams in the Western Conference and explains who he thinks will be in contention this year...

Los Angeles Lakers 4.3100/30
The new-look Lakers have plenty to look forward to this season. After months of procrastination, Dwight Howard finally made the move to
Tinseltown from Orlando. There's no doubt that he is the best center in the game and he will be a major force inside the painted area.
Veteran point-guard Steve Nash made the move from Phoenix and is a welcome addition to the lineup. He has outstanding court vision and
should provide plenty of easy scoring opportunities for Kobe Bryant. The Lakers have the squad to make a big run for the championship, provided that they come together as a team.

Oklahoma City Thunder 5.49/2
The Thunder were comprehensively beaten 4-1 by Miami in last year's NBA Finals, but they remain the team to beat in the west. This young rotation played some outstanding basketball last season but came up short against a stellar Miami team. Few changes were made during the off-season, which is good news for Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant and company are bound to make a bold bid for the title. I think the price on offer is more than fair.

San Antonio Spurs 22.021/1
Veteran center Tim Duncan returns with a three-year contract under his belt. At 36-years-old, Duncan will finish his career in San
Antonio. He would dearly love to win another title before he retires, but I think it is a tall order. This is a team with plenty of experience, but it lacks an explosive guard who can score heavily.

Los Angeles Clippers 27.026/1
Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are the backbone of this talented rotation. The Clippers should have a decent year. They signed Lamar
Odum from Dallas during the off-season, which should give them another dimension at power forward. The Clippers have underachieved for the past 20 years, but this rotation should make plenty of noise. All the pressure will be on coach Vinny Del Negro to deliver.

Denver Nuggets 60.059/1
The Nuggets are fun to watch but have yet to really break through in the west. They will almost certainly make the playoffs but lack the consistency to win overall. Point-guard Ty Lawson is the most talented player in the rotation.

Memphis Grizzlies 80.079/1
The Grizzlies upset San Antonio in the opening round of the playoffs last year. This was by no means a fluke, and Zach Randolph and company should have another productive year.

Minnesota Timberwolves 140.00139/1
Power forward Kevin Love is the cornerstone of this improving team. The Timberwolves are hoping to make the post-season, at the very
least. Point-guard Ricky Rubio is back from injury, along with Brandon Roy, who has come out of retirement to play in the Twin Cities.

Dallas Mavericks 150.00149/1
Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion are the only two starters to return. Point-guard Darren Collison was signed during the summer and will need a little time to adjust to his new surroundings. I think the Mavs will really struggle this season.

New Orleans Hornets 190.00189/1
The one bright light in New Orleans is rookie Anthony Davis, who is a huge talent. He is a star in the making and well worth the price of admission.

Golden State Warriors 210.00209/1
Coach Mark Jackson will be under close scrutiny this year. He needs to have a winning year, at the very least, to keep his job.

Utah Jazz 250.00249/1
This one is tough to fancy at any price.

Sacramento Kings 330.00329/1
Another losing year is on the cards, despite the presence of Tyreke Evans.

Phoenix Suns 420.00419/1
The Suns will struggle as a result of the departure of Steve Nash to the Lakers.

Portland Trailblazers 570.00569/1
This is a team in rebuilding mode.

The 80/20 Bet: Tuesday, Catterick 12:50

Catterick is the venue for today's 80/20 bet

Nick is off to the flat meeting at Catterick for today's Win and Place selection...

Today's 80/20 is Brooke's Bounty in the 12.50 at Catterick. This colt finished second to Red Cobra on debut at Ayr earlier this month. He kept on strongly in the closing stages and was gaining on the winner close home. He will be suited by the underfoot conditions and should go close at a fair price in this interesting maiden. At present he is trading at 5.04/1 on the exchange

Jamie Lynch on the Melbourne Cup: A shark's tale

Mount Athos (left) is reportedly enjoying a smooth preparation for the Melbourne Cup

In his preview of 'The Race That Stops A Nation', Jamie Lynch calls on another Australian emblem, the shark.

The shark has moved with the times. Off the coast of Australia, on the lengthy stretch between Queensland and New South Wales, biologists have discovered a new genus, a hybrid of the common black-tip shark (big) and the Australian black-tip (small), two similarly named but genetically distinct species. These medium-sized, black-tipped arrivistes have evolved for the purpose of range expansion, adapting to climate change, and the result, according to the experts, is a better, stronger animal.

Meanwhile, on mainland Australia, a parallel, if manufactured, process of evolution is perhaps underway for the thoroughbred, likewise for the purpose of range expansion, adapting to racing's climate change, to engineer a better, stronger-staying animal, one who'll defend the nation's prized possession: the Melbourne Cup.

The Melbourne Cup, for so long out of European reach, save for Dermot Weld, is now almost part of the European Union, the power shift heralded by a trio of British-trained seconds (2007-9) and rubber-stamped by back-to-back French wins with Americain and Dunaden, two horses back for more this year, and both in with a big chance of a repeat judging by the Caulfield Cup.

It's the quantity and not just the quality of the overseas challenge that is now pushing the down under horses down and under, highlighted last year, when the European contingent numbered 11 runners (4 more than the previous record), virtually half of the field, and, most telling of all, they filled six of the first seven places.

There are two sides to every story, however, and if the Australian stayers are in fact now subject to bullying in their own back yard, it's only overdue payback for the terror their sprinters have spread over a much longer period of time across the globe, particularly in Britain where, in the last ten years, various Aussie speedballs have between them plundered four King's Stands, two Diamond Jubilees and a Nunthorpe.

The Australians are the undisputed world leaders at breeding and producing sprinters, culminating with the glorious Black Caviar, arguably the finest and fastest there has ever been, but to get to this stage something had to give, and what gave was the quality control at the other end of the spectrum, the stayers, hence the recent vulnerabilities regards the Melbourne Cup.

If you can't beat them, buy them.

During Royal Ascot week, on what remains the best night of my year so far, but the worst next morning, I was lucky enough to attend a racing shindig in London for visiting Australians, amongst them a number of high-rolling governors and owners. Their pride in Black Caviar was matched only by their dismay at the way the Melbourne Cup is going, and several of the owners were combining fun time at Royal Ascot with a covert mission: to see some of the European horses they'd either bought or were considering buying to strengthen the 'home' defence of the Melbourne Cup.

That process has already begun. Look at this year's entries. After the latest acceptance stage, of the 14 Australian-trained horses currently making the cut, only six were born and bred in the Southern Hemisphere, the other eight having been recruited from Britain, Ireland and France, or America as was the case with German-native Sanagas. The acronym ABA is many things to many different countries, such as the Amateur Boxing Association of England in the sporting world, the Asahi Broadcasting Aomori of Japan in the TV world, and the American Bankers Association in the underworld, but in Australia, as far as finding a Melbourne Cup winner goes, it seems that ABA stands for Anywhere But Australia.

It's now not so much 'the race that stops a nation' as 'the nation that shops for a race'.

Such an influx of the highly-rated European horses, coupled with a renewed focus towards the stayers, may mean that, in ten or twenty years time, like the black-tipped shark, the Australian thoroughbred evolves - or re-evolves - to favour stamina over speed, which would at least give us Brits a chance in our sprints. But for now, and for the foreseeable future, the Euros or ex-Euros are the horses to concentrate on for the Melbourne Cup, and this year there's one above all who looks primed, ready and able to win.

At the end of 2011, the talented-but-tricky Mount Athos was transferred to Luca Cumani's stable for the express purpose of winning the 2012 Melbourne Cup, and through this season, under Cumani's expert guidance, we've seen far more of the talented Mount Athos and none of the tricky one.

Cumani knows what it takes - or very nearly takes - to win the Melbourne Cup, Purple Moon beaten half a length in 2007 and Bauer a nose in 2008, and he's been meticulous in his planning and training, all building towards Flemington, to get Mount Athos where he needs to be, in terms of both condition and entry-level rating. Three from three for Cumani, each performance an improvement on the last and each race specifically selected to fit in with the grand plan, Mount Athos has enjoyed an ideal preparation, including, it is reported, since his arrival in Australia on October 1st.

Of course, preparation is nothing without the supportive ability, but Mount Athos definitely has the figures and form to make him a leading contender; the leading contender, in fact. Ratings are what we at Timeform specialise in - it's what we've been doing for over six decades - and Timeform ratings tell the story to a large extent. After his progress this summer, Mount Athos is rated 123, higher than Red Cadeaux (122), Jakkalberry (116) and Cavalryman (118), and yet in the Melbourne Cup he receives weight off the first two (1.5 kg, effectively 3 lb) and carries the same as the last-named. In short, our ratings suggest Mount Athos has been let in comparatively lightly by the Victoria handicapper.

What's more, it's a very solid 123 rating, and a minimum if anything. In a valuable handicap at York back in July, Mount Athos administered what amounted to a 13 lb beating - by 4 lengths, conceding 8 lb - to High Jinx, who is now rated 118 following his seconds in better company including a Group 1 in France. Then, a month later in a Group 3 at Newbury, Mount Athos made short work of five rivals, amongst them the first and second from the 2011 St Leger.

He'll obviously need some luck, regards both the draw and the inevitable traffic, but luck is when preparation meets opportunity, they say, and Mount Athos has been painstakingly prepared for this long-range opportunity.

The Melbourne Cup has a rich history and pride of place in Australia, its heritage for so long safeguarded by legacy, the human ethos, and sometimes the equine genes, passed on from one generation to the next, remembering that 1971 Cup winner Silver Knight sired 1984 winner Black Knight. Perhaps one day, in homage to the evolved Australian shark, an evolved Australian thoroughbred named Black-Tip Knight will reclaim the Melbourne Cup for the natives, but we're in the age of a European stranglehold and, again this year, the local horses have a mountain to climb, known specifically as Mount Athos.

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Breeders' Cup Memories: Goldikova

Olivier Peslier and Goldikova after winning their third Breeders' Cup Mile together

Timeform look back at arguably the ultimate Breeders' Cup heroine.

A quick quiz question: which Group 1 race did Goldikova win more than any other?

Well remembered/Googled, it was indeed the Prix Rothschild (four times), but as admiration for the Freddie Head-trained mare ferments into legend, it will surely be her exploits at the Breeders' Cup for which she will be best remembered.

It's strange to think now, but in the autumn of 2008 there was doubt over which race at the Breeders' Cup Goldikova would be aimed at. Luckily for racing historians everywhere, the Mile was chosen over the Filly & Mare Turf, and probably the most famous odyssey in the relatively short history of the Breeders' Cup began.

Goldikova's first win at the Breeders' Cup was subsumed by the wider story of a European treble in the three feature races: the Mile, the Turf (Conduit) and the Classic (Raven's Pass). A year later, Goldikova had emerged from the shadow of Zarkava to become France's most famous horse, adding three Group 1s to her CV before arriving back at Santa Anita as a short-priced favourite. A wide draw would prove no barrier as Goldikova overcame Courageous Cat by half a length, the win more cosy than that margin might imply.

By the time the 2010 Breeders' Cup rolled around, Goldikova was established as Europe's leading miler, beaten only by Makfi en route to her third Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs, where she bid for what some wags termed a "three-peat". If the title was clumsy, the race itself was supremely smooth for Goldikova, as she swept by the field to win her third Breeders' Cup Mile by just shy of two lengths from another multiple G1 winner, Gio Ponti.

A fourth win at six would prove beyond Goldikova, managing only third behind Court Vision, but her place in history, both at the Breeders' Cup and in the wider racing world, was already secured. She retired with 14 wins at the highest level, the most of any European-trained Flat horse, and the indelible honour of being the first horse ever to win a Breeders' Cup race three times in a row.

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Timeform US SmartPlays: Sunday October 28

One of today's SmartPlays comes from Woodbine

Our North American team give their three best bets on Sunday.

Hawthorne race 3 (20:10 GMT) win lay #3 ANNETTES LADY at 3.55/2 or shorter
Woodbine race 8 (20:49 GMT) win back # 2 TIZ RO at 3.39/4 or longer
Turf Paradise race 5 (21:29 GMT) win back #1 VISIBLE MARQ at 3.412/5 or longer

Betfair Cross-Sport Multiple: AVB to add to Adkins woes

No light at the end of this tunnel for Southampton

Andrew Hughes thinks Tottenham will stroll to three points at St Mary's on Sunday and help land a cross-sport multiple in the process.

Betfair now gives you the facility to mix and match your multiples across a huge range of sports and markets with the easy-to-use betslip and so each weekend I've been putting together a cross-sport treble with the aim of showing the way to maximise your profits.

Bet 1: Back Tottenham to beat Southampton at 1.8
Tottenham have lost their last five Premier League visits to Southampton without scoring a goal. That record will come to an end on Sunday and possibly in style.

Southampton go into this game at the foot of the Premier League table, having conceded 24 goals in their first 8 games, and with their manager Nigel Adkins admitting that his players have been 'found out' at the top level.

He's young enough and talented enough to turn things around, but it will take time and it won't happen this weekend. Spurs are undefeated in five on the road and scored three at Old Trafford in their last Premier League away fixture. With Gareth Bale returning to torment his old club, Southampton could be in for a torrid afternoon. Back Spurs to prevail in the Match Odds market at 1.84/5

Bet 2: Back Lions to beat Sydney Sixers at 2.37
The final of the Champions League Twenty20 features the two best teams in the tournament, who are facing each other for the second time in ten days.

Sixers were the comfortable victors in their previous encounter, but I think the outcome will be different in Sunday's final. For one thing, the Sixers have since lost their star player, Shane Watson and their batting will be further weakened by the likely absence of captain Brad Haddin.

And though the Sixers bowlers have been in deadly form throughout the competition, the Lions attack of Dirk Nannes, Sohail Tanvir and Aaron Phangiso is not too far behind, certainly in terms of economy rate. The Lions are on a high after thrashing Delhi in their semi and will also know exactly how to approach this pitch at the Wanderers, their home ground. Back the Lions in the Match Odds market at 2.37n/a

Bet 3: Back Harlequins to beat London Irish at 1.56
The Heineken Cup break came just at the right time for Premiership champions Harlequins and two European victories will have restored their confidence after surprise league defeats to Exeter and Saracens.

Those domestic defeats allowed Northampton to climb to the top of the table and Quins will be determined to renew their Aviva Premiership challenge by beating London Irish at the Majedski Stadium on Sunday.

Despite an impressive win against Northampton, the Exiles remain at the wrong end of the table, kept off the bottom only by Sale and have a poor recent record against Quins, losing all three of their encounters last season. With Ugo Monye returning and replacement fly-half Ben Botica in such good form, the visitors are a solid bet at 1.564/7 in the Match Odds market.

Total Odds for this multiple: 6.65n/a Remember, multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

Indian Grand Prix: Vettel on course for Grand Slam

Better get used to this view...

With Sebastian Vettel looking unbeatable in India, James Frankland takes us through the markets for the Indian Grand Prix.

Just as in tennis, Formula One has its own Grand Slam. For the Australian, French and US Opens, plus our very own Wimbledon, read pole position, victory, fastest race lap, and leading every lap of the race.

Another parallel with tennis is that the Formula One Grand Slam is incredidly hard to pull off. How many do you suppose 91-times Grand Prix winner Michael Schumacher has? 15? 20? 30? The answer, surprisingly given his extended period of dominance in the early 2000s, is just five.

Sebastian Vettel is a man with an eye on his place in F1 history. He already holds the records for youngest driver to take pole and win the same race (Monza 2008), to take pole and set fastest lap on his way to victory in the 2009 British Grand Prix, and, last year at the Indian Grand Prix, Vettel took his first Grand Slam. His second came a month ago in Japan and, such is his dominance on the Buddh International Circuit, that we could well see his third this weekend.

When I've discussed the market for pole, fastest lap and winner previously, the odds have normally been in the region of 4.03/1 to 5.04/1. The best you can get on Vettel to record a dominant win this weekend is 2.84n/a, markedly better than 1.43n/a in the Race Winner market. Such is the expectation that Vettel will streak off into the distance that the second-placed driver, Mark Webber in the sister Red Bull, is available at 12.0n/a. The last time I recall odds this high for a front-row starter was Pastor Maldonado in Barcelona. You can also back Webber to follow Vettel home at 2.2n/a in the Forecast market.

With the expectation that Red Bull will be in a race of their own, the podium finish market is a little more interesting. Lewis Hamilton starts third but seems to have gone off the boil slightly since his move to Mercedes was announced, so I expect either Jenson Button 2.66n/a or Fernando Alonso 2.68n/a to lift the final trophy. You can expect an all-out attack from Alonso but I'm not sure the Ferrari has the pace to live with the McLarens - they were resorting to Alonso slipstreaming Massa in qualifying to gain extra speed on the 1.2km back straight - so I'd look at Jenson.

Sauber are on a charge for fifth place in the Constructor's title and are well-placed to outscore Mercedes here, with Sergio Perez starting eighth. There's rumours of a one-stopper being possible in the race tomorrow, which will play right into Perez' hands, so back him at 2.6n/a to make up at least two places and get into the top six.

Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win and set fastest lap @ 2.84n/a
Jenson Button to finish on the podium @ 2.66n/a
Sergio Perez to finish in the top six @ 2.6n/a

Newbury Result: Tawhid eases to victory

Dettori missed the ride as he was stuck in traffic

Jim Crowley stepped in for the absent Frankie Dettori on Tawhid, who showed a impressive turn of foot to win the Whizz-Kidz Stakes at Newbury...

With the Italian stuck in traffic, Crowley made the most of his late spare ride on the promising Godolphin-owned grey in the Group 3, registered as the Horris Hill Stakes.

The son of Invincible Spirit was always travelling cosily on the heels of the leaders before being produced to lead a furlong out.

Tawhid, trained by Saeed bin Suroor, shot clear to win by four lengths from Alhebayeb, with Boomshackerlacker third, a further length and three-quarters away.

Crowley, who was completing a quick double after taking the opener on Secret Gesture for Ralph Beckett, said: "He's a lovely horse and a nice spare to get.

"He travelled lovely. He went through the gears really nicely and did it with a bit of class. You never quite know when the ground is so testing but this horse clearly loved the ground.

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BNP Paribas Masters Betting: Stepanek to continue Llodra dominance

Sean fancies another Stepanek win today

It's day two at the 2012 BNP Paribas Masters and tennis expert Sean Calvert is back with another recommendation in Bercy..

It was a good start to the week at the Palais Omnisports on Monday as my bet of the day cruised home with the minimum of fuss.

Gilles Simon was always likely to be too solid for Marcos Baghdatis in the slow Bercy conditions and so it proved, as he ran out a straight sets winner.

On to Tuesday then and the match that catches my eye today is the eighth in the career series between Radek Stepanek and local hope Michael Llodra.

Stepanek has had much the better of this match-up over the years and he should represent a good bet at around 1.674/6 to continue that dominance against an opponent who is seemingly in decline.

Llodra has been plying his serve and volley trade on the Challenger circuit since the US Open and his ranking has slipped down to number 127 in the world from a high of 21 just a year and a half ago.

The slowing down of the courts hasn't helped Llodra one bit and since he defeated Novak Djokovic, John Isner and Nikolay Davydenko here in 2010 the Palais Omnisports surface has slowed considerably and it won't be to his liking.

Llodra lost in the first round to Feli Lopez here 12 months ago, but the best pointer to this match today can be found in the fact that the pair played last week in Basel and Stepanek won again.

Basel and Bercy both use the same GreenSet courts and if anything it's a touch slower in Paris, which will disappoint Llodra and gives me more reason to side with Steps today.

The veteran Czech has won six of the seven matches against Llodra and like the Frenchman he has done well here recently - beating Andy Murray and reaching the semi finals in 2009 and the change in court speed shouldn't inconvenience him too much.

Recommended Bet
Back Stepanek to beat Llodra at 1.674/6

Gordon Elliott: My Monday runners at Naas and Galway

Will you back Gordon's runners on Monday?

Cullentra House Stables have one runner at Naas and two at Galway for the bank holiday Monday in Ireland. Read Gordon Elliot's exclusive thoughts on their chances today.

14:25 Naas - Mount Benbulben
It's fair to describe his last race in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham (finished seventh of twenty runners) as a little disappointing. He raced a bit freely on that occasion so I was glad to see him come out of the race in good shape. This is his first time running in a chase and while he's back at two miles today, I still think he'll improve when stepped up to the longer distances in the future. Davy Condon gets the ride and the soft ground shouldn't be a problem. As regards his chances this afternoon, I'll be disappointed if he doesn't manage to place.

16:05 Galway - Romanesco
He makes a quick return to the racecourse having won a 3m handicap chase at Fakenham on Friday and I was glad to see him come back homein great shape. He gets a 4lb penalty today but I reckon he's still off a very nice racing weight with Andrew Lynch booked to ride. Previously, he looked almost certain to win at Cheltenham when falling at the last and I'm told his price was as low as 1/20 in-running on Betfair. This is a valuable little handicap and there some good horses entered but we are confident he'll make an impression off this mark and he has every chance of taking some prizemoney home. The tongue-tie has proved useful and he's won on soft and heavy ground before so there's no problem with the going.

16:35 Galway - Totally Couture
Finished mid-division in a bumper earlier this month in his debut race at Gowran. He's very much a work in progress and he still looks a bit weak at the moment. As the outsider of the field, we'd be delighted with a place but there's a couple of horses entered that will be very hard to beat. The experience will do him good and I hope he comes on for the run.

US Election Daily Update: Can Romney win Iowa?

Does Mitt have any chance in Iowa?

Eliot Pollack provides Sunday's US Election update with a look at some of the key states that the Republican hopes to win...

As talk of hurricanes and tropical storms, not to mention the final MLB matches of the season, knock the Presidential race off the top of the news agenda, now seems the best time to take a more macro look at the 2012 Presidential Race.

What do we know? Mitt Romney surely has to win Colorado, Virginia and Florida to win the Presidency. Colorado remains a toss-up - the most reliable and stable polls have it level-pegging. Florida however, seems all set to go GOP red, with poll leads steady at around 2%. Romney also has a lead in Virginia (albeit narrower), and reports on the ground in the American press suggest he is doing well enough there.

So where else becomes critical? Nevada looks set to go Democrat again, as every single poll has Obama ahead. In all presidential state contests except one since 2000, there was at least one poll where the eventual winning candidate led. (The exception nerds, was New Mexico in 2000 where two of the polls showed a tie and the other one had a small Bush lead - Dubya ended up losing that contest by fewer than 400 votes.)

So if Romney doesn't win in Nevada, he has three recourses; he must win either Ohio, or Wisconsin and New Hampshire, or Iowa. In Ohio again, Romney doesn't lead in a single poll. The best he can do is just one tie across 11 polls conducted over the last week. Wisconsin is the same story - Romney hasn't been ahead in a single poll since August.

Which leaves Iowa as the decisive state - on the Betfair market, Obama is 1.511/2 to take it, whereas the challenger is 2.8415/8. As throughout the campaign, I remain resolute in thinking Obama is under-priced. Back the President.

The Punter's De-Brief: Clinical Hanson see off Rory

Peter Hanson, the deserved winner of the BMW Masters

It's been a poor week for our man, as Rory fails to reel-in Peter Hanson in China and Nick Watney zooms through the field to win in Malaysia but what have we learnt for next year? Read his final analysis on the week here...

For the third time in eight days, someone stood on the 18th tee needing a birdie to break 60 on the PGA Tour. Following Tommy Gainey Gainey's efforts at the McGladrey Classic and Bo Van Pelt's mess-up on 18 yesterday, it was Nick Watney's turn but yet again, it wasn't to be. Like Van Pelt he made a bit of a horlicks of the hole and went on to make bogey but it didn't stopping him winning the CIMB Classic. He ended the week on 22-under-par, a shot clear of Van Pelt and Robert Garrigus.

And on the European Tour, despite a late rally by Rory McIlroy, Peter Hanson held his nerve to win the BMW Masters.

My Bets
With all the action being played out at unsociable hours, I've lost more sleep than I have cash but it's been a very unsatisfactory week. I didn't get too involved at the CIMB Classic and I'm glad I didn't. All the bets are detailed in the In-Play Blog apart from a cheap lay of Watney at 1.121/8.

He was three clear with two to play at the time but Bo Van Pelt had shown what the added pressure of heading for a 59 can do yesterday when he double-bogeyed the last and Watney was also trying to win the tournament. I felt it was worth the risk but he birdied the par 5 17th, which cancelled out the final hole slip, and he eventually won by one.

At the BMW Masters, I didn't strike a single in-play bet, as I thoroughly expected pre-event pick, Rory McIlroy, to win and I'm still a bit surprised and disappointed by his performance over the weekend.

For years he'd looked a little suspect in-contention but when he stormed to victory at the US PGA Championship in August and quickly followed that win with back-to back successes in the FedEx Cup series, to all intents and purpose the apprenticeship looked over and before us stood the master craftsman. He was starting to appear Tigeresque, but his performance this weekend was not even close to that standard.

On a track that suits his game perfectly, his three under-par round yesterday was some way below what I'd expected but that paled into insignificance when compared to his dreadful start today. He missed a couple of putts from inside four feet and whilst everyone else was making birdies left, right and centre, he stood on the 6th tee, two over-par for the day.

McIlroy had started the day one behind Hanson but with less than a third of the final round gone, that margin had stretched to four. Rory didn't just open the door for Hanson, he kicked it off its hinges and the gap was just too big. The Swede was able to relax and play his own game and it was only at the very end, when McIlroy finally started to hit his putts with conviction, that the Swede looked in the least bit shaky.

I'm not crabbing Hanson, although he did hit one or two loose shots at the end, he scrambled brilliantly under pressure and his up-and downs on both 16 and 17 were quite simply magnificent but I do feel his task was made immeasurably easier by Rory's atrocious start.

Player to Swerve
Nicolas Colsaerts is just about un-backable in stroke play events now. He hit a low of 5.04/1 on Saturday morning when he got to the lead but then hit back-to-back double bogeys on 16 and 17. The man's an absolute liability when he hits the front and he remains one to avoid.

What have we learnt for next year?
There is rough but with very wide fairways, you have to be extremely inaccurate off the tee to find it. Greens have different levels or sections, placing a premium on accurate approach shots, made all the more easier, the further down the fairway you are. Length off the tee is most definitely a big advantage. Those that weren't long but still figured this week were either top-drawer players or players that had good form in the desert.

You could do worse than backing those with course form in places like Dubai and Qatar and if they get it out there off the tee, that's all the better.

A late turnaround is certainly possible here, Rory trailed by four with four to play but ended up losing by the narrowest of margins and he only got beat thanks to some tremendously gutsy scrambling from Hanson. The last two holes on the course are really tough and the Swede needed a lengthy par save on 17 to avoid finishing bogey-bogey.

It's a very exposed course and if much wind is forecast it will be a huge factor and that will probably be the only thing to put me off Rory. It's very long, with wide fairways and receptive soft greens and it's tailor-made for his game.

As for the CIMB Classic, when two players threaten 59 on consecutive days, it goes without saying that the course is very gettable. Watney came from off the pace to win this week but I still think there's mileage in backing the halfway pace-setters. Robert Garrigus wasn't anywhere near to his best over the weekend but he still only lost by one. If someone a bit more reliable leads the way through 36 holes next year it might be futile to look any further.

And finally, keep an eye on Scott Piercy. He was suffering with jetlag at the start of the week and he opened up with rounds of 75 and 68 but still managed to tie for 10th after shooting 64 and 62 on the weekend. If he gets there a few days earlier to acclimatise, he could go well.

There's just the one event to look forward to this week, the WGC- HSBC Champions and as I'm off on holiday tomorrow, I'll either preview the event this evening or first thing in the morning.