MLB's spring training has begun, which is why Pinnacle Sports have posted World Series futures. This MLB World Series betting preview looks at patterns to see if bettors can find value in betting World Series futures early.
The mathematical realities
When betting World Series futures, one of the first aspects a bettor should take into account is the MLB playoff system.
Each league effectively has four playoff teams: Three divisional winners and the wildcard game winner.
Those four teams compete in two rounds of playoffs, with the team that wins two series advancing to the World Series.
Bettors will know Baseball is a marathon, the 162 game long regular season schedule due in part to the game’s inexact nature.
That length of schedule provides an appropriate sample size to determine the best teams, but from there on in series are contested over the best of five, then best of seven games – which rarely determines superiority.
The best teams are seldom better than 60% to win any playoff game, and the same goes for a playoff series. So what does this all mean for MLB betting?
If a team were certain to make the playoffs (and no team is), they would still need to survive three short series in order to take the title.
With those series based on roughly equal parts luck, skill, momentum and health, it’s difficult to say any team is better than a 1-in-8 shot at taking the title.
Right now, one team - the Washington Nationals - are given a much better implied probability.
The Nationals may have had a great team even before adding top free agent Max Scherzer, but Pinnacle Sports' odds of 6.730 for Washington to win the 2015 World Series appear to be … enthusiastic.
Value in MLB parity
The real problem with the Nationals odds to win the 2015 World Series is the remarkable parity MLB is seeing right now.
No team has won more than 98 games in any of the last three seasons, while the wildcard concept appears to have created an environment where very few teams are truly out of the playoff running before the season.
Of the American League’s 15 teams, only two - the Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins - are considered to have little to no chance of a playoff run, and even those opinions have their detractors.
While the National League doesn’t offer quite the same parity only three teams - The Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies - appear to be on the outside looking in.
If those assertions are correct, and 24 teams have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, the value won’t be found in the favourites, but in those teams with legitimate shots whose market value places them outside that range.
Below are three examples of where value may lie:
Baltimore Orioles:
The defending AL East Champions won their division by twelve games last season, but are priced at 29.30.
Does a 96 game winning team only rate as having a roughly average chance of winning the World Series?
While Baltimore lost American League home run leader Nelson Cruz, their pitching looks poised to improve, while players who suffered through down years and/or injury (Chris Davis, Manny Machado & Matt Weiters) appear ready to rebound.
Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds won the National League Central division in 2012 with a similar cast of characters before falling on hard times last season.
The good news is the two best players from that 2012 team, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, both lost their seasons to injury in 2014 and appear healthy this time around.
Throw in the emergence of Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco as all-star caliber players and you have a lineup that seems underrated in light of 55.71 odds.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
A playoff team each of the last two seasons, the Pirates are presently priced at 30.72.
Pittsburgh lost a key member in catcher Russell Martin, but in MLB, no one player makes or breaks a team.
The market may be overcompensating for Martin’s loss, especially in light of other additions.
We urge you to do your own research, but this is the kind of logic you can apply when deciding which teams to back.
Don’t believe the hype
Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have one strong commonality in their collective lack of glamour.
The reality is the national media doesn’t focus on these teams because they don’t penetrate the national consciousness the way some others would.
Here are a few reasons to consider why other clubs are getting more attention:
Big fanbases:
Our bettors are sharper than the average bookmaker’s, but even they are susceptible to some hometown bias. Teams like the Dodgers, the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs will get more than their share of attention. That can inflate their respective prices.
Recent World Series success:
The San Francisco Giants have won three of the last five World Series, and the Kansas City Royals faced them there in 2014. That exposure has them fresh in bettors' minds and may be devaluing them.
Offseason “winners”:
Each season, certain teams load up on free agents and/or trades for big players, and more often than not, those teams disappoint after the media inflates their potential to near-mythic status.
The 2012 Miami Marlins and 2013 Toronto Blue Jays are recent examples of teams who made big offseason splashes leading to sweeping predictions of impending glory, only to fall flat on their respective faces.
Which clubs were the offseason “winners” this winter? The San Diego Padres stand out as the team that made the biggest splash, and are now priced at 21.54 despite going 77-85 a year ago and sharing a division with the Dodgers and Giants.
In addition to San Diego, the Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs grabbed a big share of the headlines this year.
None of these are hard and fast rules, but you’ll generally find good value in those clubs that have been left behind as early bettors climb aboard more glamorous trains.
Baseball bettors should conduct research and keep a speculative eye on potential trades and you’ll put yourself in a position to cash after a fun season of watching your investment.
Get the best 2015 World Series Futures odds.
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