Is the King of Clay’s crown slipping?

Is the King of Clay’s crown slipping

By Dan Weston May 2, 2014

Tweet

With the clay season in full swing, and the French Open just weeks away, this article assesses how the main ATP contenders have fared so far on clay in 2014, and looks at the potential decline in the reign of the King of Clay.

There have been nine clay tournaments this season on the ATP so far, with a further two being played this week in Oeiras (Portugal) and Munich (Germany). This has given most players a chance to get some reasonable game-time under their belt on clay, with the Madrid and Rome Masters (scheduled in the next fortnight) the final chance for most of the top players to finalise their preparations for the French Open, which starts on the 25th May.

So far this season the following players have won clay court tournaments:-

Fabio Fognini (Vina Del Mar)

David Ferrer (Buenos Aires)

Rafael Nadal (Rio De Janeiro)

Federico Delbonis (Sao Paulo)

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (Casablanca)

Fernando Verdasco (Houston)

Stanislas Wawrinka (Monte Carlo)

Kei Nishikori (Barcelona)

Grigor Dimitrov (Bucharest)

Quite surprisingly, not one player has won more than one tournament on the surface, which shows that there are many players currently capable of playing at a high level. On that basis, this year’s French Open has the potential to be one of the most open in recent memory.

This is illustrated by the current betting in the market, with six players currently priced under 50.00:-

Rafael Nadal 2.28

Novak Djokovic 3.38

Stanislas Wawrinka 8.08

Roger Federer 14.27

David Ferrer 28.08

Andy Murray 32.30

Interestingly, Nadal, at the time of the main French Open preview, was available much shorter – at 1.617. The drift in Rafa’s odds has decreased his implied odds of winning the event by a huge 17.98% since the original preview was written. Conversely, Wawrinka was available at 31.37, and following his Monte Carlo Masters success, his implied chances have improved by 9.19%.

Prior to the Nadal’s loss to countryman David Ferrer in Monte Carlo, he was available at 1.91, and then he subsequently drifted to 2.20 before his match in Barcelona against Nicolas Almagro. A first defeat to another countryman has led to a slight further drift to current prices. These prices look to offer some value on the Spaniard solely based on his record at Roland Garros, which stands at an incredible 59-1 from 2005 to the time of writing.

Therefore, at this point, it’s worth trying to make an assessment as to whether this price movement on Nadal is a kneejerk reaction to several defeats against players he has a very strong historical head to head record against, or whether there is statistical reasoning behind it.

The following table compares the top five market contenders 2013 and 2014 clay court stats.

Player

Rank

2013 Clay W-L Record

2013 Clay Service Hold %

2013 Clay Service Opponent Break %

2013 Clay Combined %

2014 Clay W-L Record

2014 Clay Service Hold %

2014 Clay Service Opponent Break %

2014 Clay Combined %

2013-2014 Difference %

Nadal

1

38-2

87.3

38.5

125.8

9-2

82.5

39.1

121.6

-4.2

Djokovic

2

12-3

83.1

34.3

117.4

3-1

86.5

42.9

129.4

12

Wawrinka

3

24-7

85.5

27.5

113

4-0

95.2

29.3

124.5

11.5

Federer

4

12-5

84.3

28

112.3

4-1

89.3

28.3

117.6

5.3

Ferrer

5

21-6

77.9

39.5

117.4

11-3

78.1

37

115.1

-2.3

The above table clearly shows that in his eleven matches on clay so far this season, Nadal has shown a statistical decline with his overall combined hold/break percentage dropping from 125.8 to 121.6.

Nadal’s clayservice hold percentage has dropped from 87.3% in 2013 to 82.5% in 2014

Quite clearly, the main issue for the Spaniard is his serve. Nadal’s clayservice hold percentage has dropped from 87.3% in 2013 to 82.5% in 2014, with his return stats actually slightly increasing, breaking opponents 38.5% in 2013 to 39.1% in 2014. This service hold drop is also 4.0% below his current 3 year clay service hold, which currently stands at 86.5%.

Certainly these stats indicate that some sort of price drift is reasonable for Nadal. However, it’s important to state that his 2014 combined score of 121.6 is still 4.2% better than Djokovic and Ferrer’s 2013 combined percentage – both were at 117.4 – so there can be no doubt that despite this statistical decline, on this basis, Nadal still currently deserves to be favourite for the French Open.

A previous article focused on the decline of the ATP top ten, with Nadal highlighted as a player in decline based on the stats in that article. The following table shows the updated 2014 percentages for the top 5 in the French Open market, and allows us to see if this decline across all surfaces has continued for the world number one.

Player

Rank

2013 Overall W-L Record

2013 Overall Service Hold %

2013 Overall Opponent Break %

2013 Overall %

2014 Overall W-L Record

2014 Overall Service Hold %

2014 Overall Opponent Break %

2014 Overall Combined %

2013-2014 Difference %

Nadal

1

80-7

88

34

122

20-5

84.8

32.6

117.4

-4.6

Djokovic

2

67-9

87.9

33.2

121.1

19-3

90.5

31.5

122

0.9

Wawrinka

3

52-21

85.1

24.4

109.5

14-2

89.1

25.3

114.4

4.9

Federer

4

48-18

86.9

25.9

112.8

22-4

89.8

29.6

119.4

6.6

Ferrer

5

58-24

78.2

33.1

111.3

21-7

79.4

37.7

117.1

5.8

The combined percentages in the above table show that Nadal is the only player in the top 5 to show a decrease from 2013 to 2014, and his decline of 4.6% is very similar to his overall clay court decline of 4.2%.

Interestingly, the other four members have shown an increase, none more so than Roger Federer. The Swiss legend has managed to increase his all-surface combined percentage from 112.8 in 2013 to 119.4 in 2014. This ranks him second in the 2014 combined percentages, behind Novak Djokovic. Nadal trails in third, marginally above compatriot, David Ferrer.

There is no doubt that 2014 statistics point to Nadal’s level declining. This could be due to injury – particularly his knee – or perhaps nine unbroken years in the top 5 taking its toll on him. Another possible explanation is the increased level of his competitors, as evidenced in the second table above. Certainly Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka have dramatically improved their results in 2014 after appointing new coaches, Stefan Edberg and Magnus Norman, respectively.

All the evidence points to a highly competitive French Open with the top 5 all having the potential to compete at a high level, and on any given day, beat each other.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.