Impact of scheduling, rescheduling and TRT on UFC odds

Impact of scheduling, rescheduling and TRT on UFC odds

By Gary Wise May 14, 2014

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On May 24th, Renan Barao will defend his title against TJ Dillishaw, while all-timer Dan Henderson looks to follow up a recent knockout victory against Daniel Cormier. Below, we look at the trials and tribulations the card has faced along with a few other unusual factors, and how they should affect your betting.

Does anyone want to fight?

UFC 173’s original main event was to be Chris Weidman’s second defense of his light-heavyweight title, against Vitor Belfort. The fight was cancelled when Belfort withdrew in the wake of testosterone-replacement therapy use being banned in sanctioned MMA. More on this later.

Belfort’s withdrawal had a merry-go-round effect. Lyoto Machida took Belfort’s place, then Weidman was forced to withdraw due to injury. That scrapped the main event, which the UFC wanted to replace with a headliner in which Barao would defend his Bantamweight championship against Raphael Assuncao. Assuncao declined, with Dillishaw taking his spot.

Meanwhile, a proposed co-main event of Junior Dos Santos vs. Stipe Miocic was being moved to The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 card on May 31st, due in large part to dos Santos’ popularity in Brazil. With a new void created, Henderson v Cormier, originally slated for UFC 175, was signed into reality on April 23rd as the new co-main event of UFC 173. Exhale.

Why does all that matter?

Normally, a fight camp lasts from 6-8 weeks, with the fighter slowly ramping up training so they can peak at the right time. With Henderson-Cormier signing a month and a day before the event and Barao-Dillishaw signing on March 27th, we’re looking at two big fights with training uncertainty.

We asked our lead MMA trader for his thoughts on the importance of the shortened training camps:

“Late bookings have a bigger effect on fighters that are not well rounded. Cormier is well-rounded. Henderson will be looking to knockout Cormier; that’s about the only way he can win. Late bookings come into play when the fighter taking the fight is not in shape or needs more time to heal from his last fight. Normally the great fighters do not lose in this spot, but the average fighter has lost on numerous occasions.

Barao is one of those great fighters. He opened up at 1.235 bettors just keep piling on. He crushed Urijah Faber in his last fight, and Dillishaw is no Faber. Barao’s had a 7-week training camp, so he should be fine.”

Since January of 2009, Henderson has taken 10 fights, winning only one without the benefit of a knockout. The shortened camp not only hinders him that way, but at 43, the gradual increase of his cardio fitness has to be crucial. Of course, Henderson’s been an underdog before. Back then though he wasn’t dealing with one other crucial factor: TRT

Testosterone-Replacement Therapy (TRT)

Medically, TRT is used to address a decline in libido and other sexual inefficiencies, but its use brings positive side effects that are beneficial to an athlete much in the same way steroids are. While Commission-approved TRT use came with limitations on how high fighter testosterone levels could be (and therefore, how much therapy a fighter could be subjected to), use allowed fighters to train with heightened focus and endurance, allowing users to build muscle and momentum.

With the ban of TRT use in MMA, fighters like Henderson who enjoyed the benefits are now facing some difficult realities. While Henderson hasn’t spoken about his TRT use, training partner Chael Sonnen has, admitting that training tires him out now in a way it didn’t when he was using TRT.

One has to think that effect will only be enhanced for a 43-year-old. Our lead MMA Trader stated: “When Henderson knocked out Shogun in March, he was on TRT. TRT is now banned and there’s a lot of speculation that it should effect Henderson tremendously.”

While Cormier opened at many bookmakers as a big favorite, the TRT ban has effectively halved his odds of winning the fight if market movement is to be believed. Does our trader agree with the consensus? “This should be Henderson’s last fight.”

Between shortened camps and TRT exemptions, we’re looking at main and co-main events that are heavily affected by unusual circumstance. With odds in both lopsided, it’s on the bettor to decide whether the market is reacting suitably, or whether an over-reaction is creating an opportunity with the underdogs.

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