Men's French Open Betting: Djokovic to complete career slam in Paris

Djokovic is well set to compete in Paris

The French Open begins in Paris on Monday and in-form tennis expert Sean Calvert expects this to finally be Novak Djokovic's year to lift La Coupe des Mousquetaires...

The second major of the season is upon us and all eyes are on the weather forecast ahead of the 2014 French Open.

With the clay conditions playing very differently according to the elements defending champion Rafael Nadal will be concerned - very concerned - about the soggy weather in Paris right now.

We know Rafa likes to play with the sun on his back so that his heavily spun top spin shots can rear up off the court surface and make life very difficult for one-handed backhanded righties, but it's not so effective in the damp.

Most will remember Robin Soderling breaching Rafa's defences at Roland Garros back in 2009 in overcast conditions and a heavy court will not please Nadal one bit.

But plenty of people will probably have forgotten Daniel Brands and Martin Klizan doing a similar thing last year, but the less illustrious pair were unable to sustain their challenges.

Those looking for omens will point to Rafa's unbeaten four years in Paris ahead of the Soderling match and note that he's four years unbeaten again. For the exact same thing to happen again Nadal will likely face Nico Almagro in the fourth round this year and we know what happened the last time they met.

All this talk of Rafa and he's not even favourite for the tournament after his defeat by Novak Djokovic in Rome last week and at the time of writing it's the Serb who's a 2.526/4 favourite.

I can't recall the last time that Nadal wasn't favourite going into the French Open, but he's had such a poor season by his standards that Novak is rightfully the one to beat in 2014.

Nadal has looked very unsure of himself this season and losses to the likes of Almagro, David Ferrer, Alex Dolgopolov and of course Djokovic himself and that Rome loss from a set up will have hurt the Spaniard.

The champion does have a pretty kind draw early on with wild card Robby Ginepri no threat these days, but that potential clash with Almagro looks like it could be a testing hurdle to overcome.

That match should be played eight days into the tournament when the weather is still set to be poor and we could well see an upset there, with Nico worth considering should that match take place.

I don't see Nico as a good back-to-lay option outright though, as David Ferrer would be the likely quarter final opponent in that section and with Almagro's 0-11 record against Ferrer it's hard to see Nico beating them both in succession.

The adjacent section is where Stan Wawrinka, who I backed for this at 17.016/1 a while back, finds himself and I'll be looking for that to get shorter than the current 15.5n/a before laying that off, as I don't see Stan winning this fortnight.

Having successfully tipped him for the Australian Open I can't see him doing the double - no one has since Jim Courier back in 1992 - as his body doesn't look quite up to a bunch of prolonged battles on energy sapping, heavy clay.

The Swiss looks good to make the last four though, with his quarter opponents being Andy Murray and a selection of the game's least mentally strong characters - Fabio Fognini, Richard Gasquet, Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils, Feli Lopez, Thomaz Bellucci and Philipp Kohlschreiber.

I would expect Wawrinka to come through that section and as for Murray, well, Andrey Golubev will be no gimme in round one and I have no expectations for the Brit at all here.

Djokovic's section looks fine for the Serb in his quest to complete the career slam and it's hard to see the likes of Marin Cilic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Dolgopolov, and Milos Raonic defeating him unless his wrist problem flares up again.

Kei Nishikori would be the one threat, but his body has only a tiny chance of making it to the latter stages of a two-week best of five event on heavy clay. He's pushing it with a one week best of three, as those who backed him in Madrid will recall all to well.

The final section is wide open, with Roger Federer lacking in match practice and having made one final here since he won it back in 2009.

Tomas Berdych should have conditions in his favour, but he's done nothing this clay swing and I've had a little fun bet on Roberto Bautista-Agut at 550549/1 as an alternative in what looks a wide-open quarter.

Tommy Robredo looks gone to me right now, while John Isner has never made it past the last-32 here and the other choices are Ernests Gulbis, who can't be trusted at any Grand Slam, Mikhail Youzhny, who's had a shocking season and Dmitry Tursunov.

RBA has the best form of them all this season and he's already beaten Berdych once this season. I've seen worse back-to-lay bets at 550549/1 than this one.

But the big players will look to Djokovic here and for me if he plays to around his best level he has the call on Nadal right now and would have to be the bet at 2.526/4.

Recommended Bet
Back Djokovic at 2.526/4

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Bautista-Agut at 550549/1