The World Cup by numbers: 20 World Cup trends

The World Cup by numbers: 20 World Cup trends

By Michael Gales May 16, 2014

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Bettors aiming to make a profit at the 2014 World Cup should read these 20 World Cup betting trends to gain an insight into how the key numbers stack -up across previous finals.

0 – The curse of the Ballon d’Or 

No player who has won the Ballon d’Or (FIFA World Player of the Year) has ever become a World Champion the following year. This doesn’t bode well for Portugal 30.610* whose Cristiano Ronaldo collected the prestigious award for the first time in 2013. Interestingly three players – Zinedine Zidane (1998), Gerd Muller (1974) and Xavi (2010) – who won the World Cup finished third in the Ballon d’Or the year before. Franck Ribery claimed third prize in 2013, and his French team are available at 22.000*

1 – Hosts struggle in the modern era 

Despite six nations winning the World Cup on home soil – Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), West Germany (1974), Argentina (1978) and France (1998) -, only France have done so since 1978. This shows that despite a significant HFA, hosts have struggled to lift the trophy in the modern era.

2 – Defending the trophy is tough 

Only twice in the history of the World Cup have the defending champions retained their trophy – Italy (1934 & 1938) and Brazil (1958 & 1962). However, since Mexico 1986 – classed as the modern era – no nation has defended their title, which would mean Spain 7.180* – who have an implied probability of 13.93%, would rewrite history if they win in Brazil.

2 (again) – Final decided by a shoot-out

Only twice has the World Cup been decided by a penalty shoot-out – 1994 and 2006. Italy were involved in both occasions losing to Brazil 3-2 in 1994 and winning 4-3 against France in 2006. Gli Azzurri are 24.000* to win their fifth World Cup.

2.1 – Own goal shocker

Since Mexico 1986 there have been 15 own goals at an average of 2.1 per World Cup. 2006 winners, Italy, conceded their only goal in open-play when Cristian Zaccardo put past his own goalkeeper against the USA.

2.46 – Average goals per game

In the modern era an average of 2.46 goals has been scored per game at the World Cup. If you include all World Cups that average raises significantly to 3.12 goals. Germany 6.410* have been the highest scoring team at the last two World Cups – 2006 (14) and 2010 (16) – despite exiting at the semi-final stage on both occasions.

3 – Always the bride

The Netherlands have finished runner-up three times in 1974, 1978 and 2010 – the most without ever winning a World Cup. The Dutch can be backed at 27.000* which gives them an implied probability of 3.7%.

5 – Brazil have the golden touch

Brazil are the most successful nation in the World Cup with five victories (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994 & 2002). Unsurprisingly they also boast the best historical win percentage, winning 67% of all World Cup games. The hosts are the 3.780* favourites to claim a sixth crown.

5 (again) – Salenko has a moment of inspiration

In the searing American heat Russian striker Oleg Salenko scored five goals in a 6-1 rout of Cameroon in the group stage of the 1994 World Cup. Salenko’s five goals – which helped him share the Golden Boot with 6 total goals – is the most any player has scored in a match during the World Cup. Bizarrely these were his only ever international goals.

5.42 – Bore draw

There have been 38 goalless draws since Mexico 1986, which averages out at 5.42 per tournament. Interestingly the last two tournaments have witnessed the most 0-0 draws with eight a-piece.

6 – Average goals for the Golden Boot winner

The Golden Boot winner has averaged 6 goals per tournament since Mexico 1986. The most ever scored in a World Cup was France’s Just Fontaine who found the net an incredible 13 times in Sweden 1958. Read these factors to consider before you select a World Cup Golden Boot winner.

10 – Hiding to nothing

The biggest World Cup winning margin saw Hungary smash El Salvador 10-1 at the Spanish World Cup in 1982. Despite this opening Group 3 win, the Hungarians failed to qualify for the knockout stage, while El Salvador played more defensively against Belgium and Argentina, losing 1-0 and 2-0 respectively.

11 seconds – Blink and you’ll miss it 

In 2002 it took Hakan Sukur just 11 seconds to score for Turkey against South Korea in the third place play-off. Sukur’s goal remains the fastest at a World Cup and helped Turkey secure their best ever World Cup finish.

13 – Point to the spot

13 Penalties have been awarded on average at each tournament since Mexico 1986, which equates to a penalty every 4.47 games. South Africa 2010 witnessed the fewest penalties (9) awarded in the modern era, while the most came at France 1998 (17).

16 – Host continent dominate

Looking back at the previous 19 World Cups, only three occasions has the winner come from a different continent to the host – Brazil (1958 & 2002) and Spain (2010). The relevance of this trend for World Cup 2014 is that it suggests the South American teams will do well. Argentina can be backed at 5.540*, while Uruguay are available at 22.000* to win their first title since 1950.

17 – Red mist

17 is the average number of red cards at a World Cup finals since 1986. If you include all World Cups the number drops to 8.2. The 2006 finals in Germany holds the record for the most red cards in a World Cup when an incredible 28 dismissals were shown at an average of 0.43 per game. Click here to read how red cards and cautions affect live betting.

18 – French the lowest ranked team to win

Since the FIFA World Rankings were introduced in 1992, France’s victory on home soil in 1998 ensured they became the lowest ranked team – 18th – to win the World Cup. Both Mexico (19) and the Ivory Coast (21) can be backed at 121.000* to win the World Cup.

19 – Nationality of the coach

One of the most striking World Cup trends, which covers all 19 events since the tournament was established back in 1930, is that the coach of the winning team has always been from that nation. Russia are managed by Fabio Capello and are at 61.000* to win and break the trend. All teams with shorter odds than the Russians have home grown coaches.

22 – Penalty shoot-outs

There have been 22 penalty shoot-outs in the history of the World Cup. Unbelievably, since 1986 Germany have a 100% record and have not missed a penalty in a World Cup shoot-out. At the other end of the spectrum is England who have lost all three penalty shoot-outs they have been involved in at a World Cup.

100% – South Americans dominate in the Americas

Spain and Germany are amongst the favourites to win in Brazil, however the World Cup history indicates when it comes to defending continental boundaries, South America has proven unbeatable. In the seven World Cups held in the Americas, South American nations have won on each occasion – Brazil (1962, 1970 & 1994), Uruguay (1930 & 1950) and Argentina (1978 & 1986). However, there are dangers in relying solely on historic trends to predict the winner, read this article to find out why.

Click here for the latest World Cup odds.

*Odds subject to change

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