Using qualification to predict tournament performance

Using qualification to predict tournament performance

By Michael Gales May 23, 2014

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To help predict how teams may perform in World Cup handicap betting we analysed all performance in qualifying to understand which teams exceeded or fell short of expectation. This knowledge could make a significant difference for successful handicap betting on the World Cup.

What the World Cup qualification handicap table tells bettors 

The World Cup qualification handicap table below shows how well the 31 nations (Brazil qualify automatically as hosts) performed against expectations in qualification.

Obviously each nation performed well in an absolute sense as they qualified for the World Cup, but instead of looking at the win-loss-draw performance of each team, the table highlights the nations relative performance in relation to how often they covered the handicap, and therefore met bookmakers’ expectations.

If a nation had a 50% cover percentage during qualification it suggests that bookmakers and bettors – who help inform the lines – had a good judge of their ability.

Team

Played

Covered

Pushed

Failed

Cover %

Bosnia-Herzegovina

10

7

0

3

70.00%

Costa Rica

16

11

1

4

68.75%

Argentina

16

10

0

6

62.50%

Honduras

16

10

0

6

62.50%

Belgium

10

6

1

3

60.00%

France

10

6

1

3

60.00%

Netherlands

10

6

1

3

60.00%

Switzerland

10

6

0

4

60.00%

Greece

12

7

0

5

58.33%

Chile

16

9

1

6

56.25%

Colombia

16

9

1

6

56.25%

Iran

16

9

0

7

56.25%

Algeria

8

4

2

2

50.00%

Cote d’ Ivoire

8

4

0

4

50.00%

Croatia

12

6

1

5

50.00%

Ecuador

16

8

1

7

50.00%

England

10

5

1

4

50.00%

Germany

10

5

0

5

50.00%

Ghana

8

4

2

2

50.00%

Russia

10

5

1

4

50.00%

USA

16

8

0

8

50.00%

Australia

14

6

1

7

42.86%

Italy

10

4

1

5

40.00%

Uruguay

18

7

1

10

38.89%

Spain

8

3

0

5

37.50%

Japan

14

5

2

7

35.71%

Korea Republic

14

5

1

8

35.71%

Portugal

12

4

2

6

33.33%

Nigeria

8

2

2

4

25.00%

Mexico

18

4

2

12

22.22%

Cameroon

8

1

4

3

12.50%

Bosnia-Herzegovina – Performed above expectations 

Bosnia-Herzegovina topped their group during qualifying and the World Cup qualifying handicap table after covering in 70% of games. This highlights that Bosnia were gravely undervalued during World Cup qualification.

Drawn alongside Argentina, Nigeria and Iran in Group F, bettors must evaluate whether or not they will be undervalued again, or that the combination of bookmakers and punters will have a better grasp of their relative strength, given the closer scrutiny the World Cup brings.

The quality of their qualification group, and whether they were consistent home and away are important points to consider, as is their lack of major tournament experience.

Brazil – A look at the Confederations Cup and recent friendly games 

As a consequence of receiving automatic qualification Brazil have been devoid of competitive fixtures over the past 12 months.

However in the 2013 Confederations Cup – regarded as the warm-up for the World Cup – the hosts covered an impressive 80% of games, with their only blip coming when they were -1.25 favourites in a 2-1 win over Uruguay.

Since September 2013 Brazil have played eight friendly games and covered in 62.5% of games. However two games they failed to cover the spread in were on neutral ground against Chile and Zambia, which they did however win outright.

Interestingly Brazil performed above expectations in the Confederations Cup and friendly games. Bookmakers will have taken note of this, and fed it into handicap expectations for the Canaries’ group games, while HFA and the general expectation around the world’s soccer’s most celebrated team will almost certainly create a downward pressure on their odds.

Sharp bettors must decide at what point the expectation becomes unrealistic and the opposing view on the Handicap more viable.

Cameroon – Underperformed despite qualifying

Despite qualifying, Cameroon’s campaign was shrouded in controversy, which is reflected in their handicap performance. The Indomitable Lions sit bottom of our Handicap table covering in 12.5% of games – just one game.

This clearly shows Cameroon underperformed during qualifying compared to bookmaker expectations despite winning 62.5% of their games (W5, D2, L1).

The result of this shambolic qualification campaign is highlighted by their tag as Group A underdogs. However bettors should be looking to spot whether this assessment strays too far.

Cameroon have plenty of World Cup experience, including some huge shocks (beating holders Argentina in the opening game of the 1990 event) and three influential players have returned from retirement while unrest within the camp may have subsided now they have made the all important passage to Brazil.

Spain & Netherlands – Do they offer value on the handicap?

Both Spain and the Netherlands have been drawn in Group B alongside Chile and Australia. Despite both nations qualifying with ease – Spain (W6, D2, L0) and Holland (W9, D1, L0) – their performance against the spread needs further attention.

Defending champions Spain for instance covered just three (37.5%) of their qualifying games, which underlines that in general the Handicap markets expected more than La Rojas delivered.

The Netherlands in comparison covered in 60% of their qualification games, which showcases they were slightly undervalued by the market.

A closer look at their campaign emphasizes they were in a poor group, while pundits will talk about their unbeaten run in 2013, it was against modest opposition which leaves some questions unanswered in relation to expectation in Brazil.

Final word

When betting on the World Cup handicap market bettors should consider the handicap table above to gauge which nations were undervalued/overvalued during qualification.

This data must then be supplemented with additional data that should include assessments of the importance of preparation, tournament experience, injury news and whether the conditions/venues are favourable.

With this in hand bettors will be better able to judge the relative strength of teams and compare this to the available World Cup Handicap betting markets.

Click here to see the latest World Cup handicap odds.

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