Against All Odds: Sao Paulo and Atletico MG to entertain

Lus Fabiano still knows where the goal is

There's a fantastic match taking place in Brazil tonight and Paul Robinson thinks that we'll be in for at least three goals when Sao Paulo host Atletico MG.

Sao Paulo v Atletico MG
Saturday May 31, 22:30 BST
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video  

Sao Paulo are beginning to look a touch more consistent again under Muricy Ramalho following the managerial merry-go-round that was last season. The three times Copa Libertadores winners are in eighth place after eight fixtures, having lost only once. The negative has been the amount of draws - four in total - but at least they haven't been getting beaten and they showed huge resolve to twice come back from behind at Atletico PR on Wednesday.

That 2-2 draw was their fourth match this term to go over 2.5 goals and their second in their last three outings. A 1-0 victory over Gremio was sandwiched between the midweek game and a 5-2 defeat at Fluminense, so it would appear that 'Tricolor' are opening up more of late. If we look solely at their results in front of their own fans, we can see that two of their four league matches have had at least three goals - as did their two Copa do Brasil home fixtures.

Atletico MG are two places above tonight's opponents in sixth, but there's only a point between them. After a shaky start that saw them take just one point from a possible nine, Levir Culpi, has started to correct come of the mistakes that out-going boss, Paulo Autuori, had made during his four and  a half months at the club.

Mineiro have won four of their last five matches and that includes a  notable victory over reigning champions, Cruzeiro, as well as impressive away wins at Santos and Vitoria BA. All three of those games went over 2.5 goals and while their two most recent ones went under, they were both at home. All of their matches on the road this year have had three goals or more, with both teams scoring each time.

This should be a classic between two powerhouses of Brazilian football. The statistics point to goals, so with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.8810/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Sao Paulo v Atletico MG @ 1.8810/11 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 147 pts
Returned: 161.16 pts
P/L: + 14.16 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)