Which ATP & WTA players struggle or thrive when heavy favourite?
By Dan Weston May 20, 2014
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Many tennis bettors like the idea of a long-priced underdog winner. This tennis betting article assesses whether some favourites are more vulnerable than others when priced under 1.20, and which players are less likely to be susceptible to an upset.
Previous research has shown that there is no advantage to blindly backing underdogs, and particularly in high-profile events such as Grand Slams and Masters/Premier Mandatory events, which have significantly greater financial and ranking point advantages – the favourites tend to thrive.
However, as is noted on social media, forums, and in print media, some players seem to be more vulnerable to being on the receiving end of shock results than others. Logically, this would be the ‘big server’ type players such as John Isner and Milos Raonic on the ATP Tour, and the likes of Petra Kvitova and Sam Stosur on the WTA Tour.
The reasoning behind this logic is that they tend to play much tighter sets -winning sets by a single break, or a tiebreak, for example – and hence a few key points will decide the victor of that set. Naturally, when such few points determine who wins a set, or a match, variance will be higher, and that should lead to these players being upset. Furthermore, the increased amount of games and sets these players play during the course of a tournament will lead to greater accumulated fatigue (particularly in Grand Slams) compared to those players who win matches more efficiently, and this effect may not be taken into account properly by the market.
The following stats illustrate the statistics for 3 set matches in the 12 months (as of 15th May 2014):-
Isner 28/53 (52.8%)
Raonic 11/46 (23.9%)
Kvitova 31/65 (47.7%)
Stosur 26/70 (37.1%)
It is clear to see that only Raonic has below the respective tour averages for playing three set matches. Isner’s figure of 52.8% is far in excess of the 12 month 36.9% ATP tour average. WTA matches tend to end slightly less frequently in three sets, at 33.3%, but Kvitova’s figure is 14.4% above and very similar to Isner’s difference to the tour mean.
ATP Analysis
The following table shows statistics for top 30 ATP players when priced under 1.20, both in the last 12 months (as of 15th May 2014) and in each player’s career. All prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.
Player
Rank
12 Month Win %
12 Month ROI
Career Win %
Career ROI
Nadal
1
90
-4.7
94
-0.7
Djokovic
2
97
2.7
94
1.3
Wawrinka
3
82
-10.1
84
-8
Federer
4
84
-10.1
92
-1.7
Ferrer
5
85
-5.4
91
0.8
Berdych
6
92
0.3
92
1.5
Del Potro
7
84
-2.5
90
-0.1
Murray
8
94
0.1
91
-2
Nishikori
9
89
6.6
92
5.7
Raonic
10
92
3.1
91
0.8
Isner
11
71
-7.4
92
6.9*
Gasquet
12
100
10.1
93
3.5
Tsonga
13
95
6.6
93
3.5
Dimitrov
14
92
0.8
83
-8.5
Fognini
15
78
-11.4
87
-2*
Youzhny
16
86
-3.7
92
8.3*
Gulbis
17
89
-1.9
82
-5.1*
Robredo
18
100
13.3
93
9.8*
Haas
19
100
12
80
-6.8*
Anderson
20
100
11.3
100
12*
Dolgopolov
21
75
-14.5
88
-4*
Janowicz
22
25
-71.2
69
-23.5*
Almagro
23
100
14
94
6.4
Monfils
24
100
15.3
95
8
Verdasco
25
80
-11.3
86
-3.4*
Cilic
26
85
2
87
-1.9
Lopez
27
100
8.4
80
-4.9*
Bautista-Agut
28
86
-3.5
93
5.1*
Kohlschreiber
29
100
10.4
98
9.1
Simon
30
100
12
95
5.9*
*Indicates the player played less than 10 matches in the last 12 months when priced under 1.20.
We can see that four players had win percentages under 80% in the last 12 months. Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jerzy Janowicz and the aforementioned Isner, although all were from fewer than 10 matches sampled. Certainly Janowicz can also be included in the ‘big server’ category – and it’s also worth mentioning that his career record was the worst in the top 30 by some distance – although Fognini, as a traditional clay courter, definitely cannot. However, the volatile Italian has a tendency to lack concentration during matches and this may be a contributory factor to his percentage.
The Swiss duo of Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka had the worst return on investment from those players with a bigger sample in the last 12 months, both generating a -10.1% return. Their 84% and 83% win percentages were also the worst in the top 10, and with similar career stats, Wawrinka appears to have a long-term problem winning when expected to do so.
Several players seem to thrive when a short priced favourite. Richard Gasquet was 19-0 in the last 12 months priced under 1.20, and won in straight sets in 7 out of 8 completed three set matches. Kevin Anderson has won an incredible 19/19 in his career, and Gael Monfils (10-0) and Nicolas Almagro (12-0) also had impressive 12 month figures, and both also won the vast majority of their matches in straight sets.
However, Philipp Kohlschreiber has just about taken the honours for the best player priced under 1.20. The German, who could also be included in the ‘big server’ category, won all of his 10 matches without dropping a set in the last 12 months and has a magnificent 43-1 record in this odds range in his career. His solitary defeat came at the hands of Lukas Kubot at Stuttgart in 2009.
WTA Analysis
The following table shows statistics for top 30 WTA players when priced under 1.20, both in the last 12 months (at 15th May 2014) and in each player’s career. All prices used were Pinnacle Sports’ closing prices.
Player
Rank
12 Month Win %
12 Month ROI
Career Win %
Career ROI
Williams
1
92
-0.1
93
1
Li
2
96
6.9
89
-0.3
Radwanska
3
97
7.3
91
2.6
Azarenka
4
82
-8.2
90
0.9
Halep
5
89
-0.8
92
3.5
Kvitova
6
78
-13.2
84
-0.75*
Sharapova
7
90
-1.1
93
1
Jankovic
8
89
-1.1
86
-3.5
Kerber
9
93
4.5
92
4.6
Cibulkova
10
75
-6.6
78
-6.9
Errani
11
91
-1.9
93
5.4
Pennetta
12
80
-9.3
82
-5.5*
Ivanovic
13
100
14.2
93
5.4
Suarez Navarro
14
100
14.6
85
0.5*
Wozniacki
15
92
3.4
93
3.2
Stephens
16
100
12.1
100
11.2*
Lisicki
17
100
14.1
89
1.3*
Stosur
18
86
-5.7
84
-6.8
Vinci
19
100
12.7
92
4.6*
Bouchard
20
91
1.6
87
-2.9
Cornet
21
100
15.9
93
4.1
Safarova
22
63
-27.1
76
-13*
Flipkens
23
100
17.4
100
12.7*
Makarova
24
100
14.3
87
-1.3*
Pavlyuchenkova
25
100
14.5
96
9*
Kanepi
26
50
-42.9
70
-18.5*
Cirstea
27
N/A
N/A
100
15.2
Petkovic
28
78
-12.1
85
-4.4*
Kuznetsova
29
100
18.7
91
1.7*
Koukalova
30
83
-4.3
73
-17.2*
*Indicates the player played less than 10 matches in the last 12 months when priced under 1.20.
Perhaps the most noticeable stat at first glance from the above table is the relatively low win percentage of Serena Williams when priced under 1.20. Her win percentage of 92% is actually below her 94% win percentage across all price ranges over the last 12 months, and she suffered shock defeats to Jana Cepelova, Alize Cornet, Ana Ivanovic and Sabine Lisicki when priced under 1.20 in that time period.
However, the world number one won an incredible 58 out of 66 matches in straight sets (87.9%) when priced under 1.20 in the last 12 months. Ana Ivanovic (87.0%) and Agnieszka Radwanska (82.9%) also won a large percentage of their matches in this odds range in straight sets and both had positive 12 month and career stats in the above table.
Petra Kvitova, Dominika Cibulkova, Flavia Pennetta, Lucie Safarova, Kaia Kanepi and Klara Koukalova were the players that had the worst stats, with unimpressive 12 month and career stats. Interestingly, Safarova and to some extent, Kanepi, would join Kvitova in the ‘big server’ category, although Cibulkova and Koukalova are players with generally mediocre service stats.
Interestingly, Kvitova won just three of nine matches in straight sets in the last 12 months when priced under 1.20 and Safarova (50.0% in the last 24 months) and Kanepi (53.8% in the last 12 months) also failed to impress in this area.
The statistics clearly illustrate that all players should not be treated as the same when priced under 1.20, whether this is due to player tendencies, mental strength or concentration. Bettors would be well advised to research player records when they want to back or oppose at a short price, and this should be taken in account as part of a balanced betting strategy.
Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.
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