Men's French Open Betting: Nadal to overcome tricky Thiem challenge

Can Dominic Thiem extend Nadal to a fourth set today?

It's been a tournament of upsets so far and Rafa Nadal will be looking to avoid another as he takes on Dominic Thiem today. Sean Calvert selects the best bets from this and the rest of today's French Open matches...

Wednesday will go down as the day that Serena Williams was bundled out of the French Open, but I will remember it for entirely different reasons.

It was a very painful one for me, as Jiri Vesely somehow failed to get the one set I required of him against Milos Raonic, despite serving for set one, having a set point and being a break up in set two.

I said yesterday that the reason I wouldn't back Vesely to beat Milos outright was the young Czech's habit of choking and that was what cost me the 3-0 lay of Raonic in the end - by a single point.

It got even worse when Jarkko Nieminen led Jerzy Janowicz in all three sets and managed to lose them all.

The Finn was ahead by a break in set one; served for the set in the second and was 3-0 up in the third, but came away with a straight sets defeat. It was one of those very peculiar days of Grand Slam tennis, that's for sure.

Looking on the bright side, I am on a very good run - unheard of, in fact - of correctly picking Andy Murray matches of four in a row now and today he faces Marinko Matosevic for a place in round three.

But it's not a match that I can see any betting value in, with the likeliest outcome a 3-0 win for Murray over an opponent who doesn't do well on clay and will be happy just to have won his first ever match at a grand slam.

The straight sets for Andy is around 1.51/2, but it's not the most appealing betting prospect around today.

I'm more of a mind to take young sensation Dominic Thiem to grab a set from Rafa Nadal, with the 3-1 win for the Spaniard a tempting 5.04/1 shot.

Thiem has shown little in the way of nerves against the big names so far in beating Stan Wawrinka and taking a set from Murray, but he did choke badly against Santiago Giraldo of all people in Barcelona recently.

Rafa's record against single-handed righties is impeccable and he will almost certainly win this match, but conditions aren't ideal for him and if Thiem finds his best level he has a set in him.

The weather is forecast to be okay for today, but the courts are still on the damp side and that's really the only time that you can adjudge Rafa to be a little vulnerable.

Much will depend on how Thiem reacts to this big stage against the world number one and he could get wiped out, but I think it's worth a bet at 5.04/1 that he can take Rafa to four sets.

Elsewhere, there are a few clay courters who look 3-0 lays today in the heavy conditions, but in fact it's more related to their suspect brains, and I speak, of course, about Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini and Fernando Verdasco.

I would be amazed if all three won in straight sets and in all probability none of them will and Fognini looks the best to take on against Thomaz Bellucci, who has the power in his game and the level on his best form to take at least a set.

Too much is being read into Fognini's recent 6-2, 6-2 win over the Brazilian when the latter had played five matches already that week in damp conditions in qualies and he should take one set today - maybe more if Fogna is in one of his moods.

The over 37.5 total games looks the choice in the Verdasco/Pablo Cuevas match, with this looking like a tough challenge for the Spaniard, who has done little this clay swing in Europe and was far from impressive against Michael Llodra in round one.

I've always liked the game of Cuevas and he's been very unlucky with injuries in recent times. This is a good chance for him to show what he can do after a simple round one win over the hapless Matt Ebden.

Recommended Bets

Back Nadal to beat Thiem 3-1 at 5.04/1
Lay Fognini to beat Bellucci 3-0 at 2.3211/8
Back over 37.5 total games in Verdasco/Cuevas at 1.9010/11