World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Colombia

Colombia are desperate for Radamel Falcao to prove his fitness

Colombia are widely considered to be one of the most likely of the longer priced runners for the World Cup, at 38.037/1, after a strong qualifying campaign. South American football expert Ed Malyon takes a look at how they might set up in Brazil and picks out his best bets...

Road to Brazil

It is an unbelievable 16 years since Colombia last qualified for a World Cup, but they are back and saddled with 'dark horse' status. 

They missed out on a qualification playoff for the 2002 World Cup on goal difference, while four years later they would finish shy again, with Uruguay beating Argentina in their last fixture to pip Colombia by a point. It would be one point again that would deny them a place in South Africa.

With no Brazil in qualifying this time round they were already in with a far better chance of reaching their goal, but they finished second in the group on their own strengths, not purely through the Canarinha's absence. Their current crop of players are predominantly European-based and are of a very high quality, but that was not of any help at the 2011 Copa America in Argentina where they were (once again) fancied as dark horses yet disappointed under Leonel Alvarez.

He remained in the post, yet after a poor start to the qualification process Alvarez was disposed with and his replacement was former Argentina boss Jose Pekerman. The transformation since his arrival has been remarkable, and performances such as the the 4-0 mauling of Uruguay have really started to make people believe that Colombia could be one of the surprise packages in Brazil, with familiar conditions and arguably the best centre-forward in the world leading the line (if fit of course). In the end, qualifying was a breeze and friendly results against top 10 nations have promised much.

The Manager

Jose Pekerman is hugely respected in South America and the Argentina has done a wonderful job since taking over the Cafeteros. 

Having forged the best defence on the continent while providing the requisite support to Radamel Falcao, Pekerman has solved the two major problems facing him. The Monaco forward's injury poses a fresh issue in robbing them of their talisman but it is, fortunately, the area in which they have a wealth of options. 

Tactically astute, Pekerman may not be well known around the globe but he is a fine coach and capable of surprising the elite.

Key men

In the absence of Falcao, someone will need to step up to the plate and provide the Colombian goals. Teo Gutierrez bagged six alongside his more illustrious partner in qualifying, a decent return, but is still far from a guaranteed starter. 

If Pekerman switches shape to a more conservative shape and one forward then the onus will fall on young James Rodriguez to have a breakthrough tournament and establish himself as a world star. A superb first season in France bodes well for his summer. 

Talking Point

Who starts up front? Carlos Bacca has been brilliant in Sevilla's Europa League win as well as causing trouble in La Liga. Jackson Martinez has scored goals all year with Porto, Luis Muriel has impressed in Italy and for the national team as has fellow youngster Victor Ibarbo. Adrian Ramos was a sensation in the Bundesliga and joins Dortmund after Brazil. 

And that's before you even mention the current first-choice front pairing: Falcao and Teo Gutierrez. 

Unfortunately that ludicrous level of depth is not replicated elsewhere and Pekerman's squad is stretched for top-class players beyond the first XI both in the centre of defence and midfield.

Best Bet

It's not going to win you a new house but no side in Group C even looks close to Colombia and the near-evens shout 1.981/1 on them to win their group looks a simple win. 

It will likely be a decent battle for second place in that group, and the Ivory Coast could claim to have as strong a squad but Pekerman sets the Colombians apart from their rivals and they've more than enough to finish top of the pile. 

Value Bet

Colombia were slow starters in qualifying, especially away from home where they were drawing six of their eight away games at half time. They may be worth backing Draw/Colombia in the HT/FT markets for any of their group games but particularly the opener -a traditionally cagey fixture - against a conservative Greece side. The price for that one is 4.57/2.

Did You Know?

Colombia were awarded fewer corners than any other side during the South American qualifiers for the World Cup – an average of just 3.9 per game.