Can Germany finally win a tournament under Jogi Low?
Germany have a consistent recent record at major tournaments, but haven't managed to go all the way under manager Joachim Low. Regular Bundesliga columnist Kevin Hatchard believes they can at least reach the semi-finals in Brazil.
Road to Brazil
As expected, Germany booked their 16th consecutive appearance at the World Cup Finals (Opta tell us only Brazil have competed in more) in fine style. They won nine of their 10 qualifying matches, scoring 36 goals and finishing eight points clear of second-placed Sweden.
The game Germany didn't win was a source of alarm, as they somehow blew a 4-0 lead against the Swedes in Berlin, and were held to a barely believable 4-4 draw. Such a shocking defensive collapse did little to dispel the notion that for all their flowing football, Germany have a soft centre.
The Manager
Bundestrainer Joachim Low spent two years as Jurgen Klinsmann's assistant, before taking the reins in 2006. The 54-year-old has led his country at three major tournaments, and has reached at least the semi-finals in all of them. He recently had his contract extended to include the European Championships in 2016, but failure to reach at least the semis in Brazil may spark an early exit.
Low likes to play exciting, attacking football, but he must now prove that his playing style can win a tournament. He is popular with German fans, but he has persistent critics in the media, who have questioned his tactics and highlighted his failure to shore up a leaky defence. Although Low appears relaxed and genial, he can be demanding, and he has issued a few stark wake-up calls to players in the build-up to the tournament.
Key Men
Germany have some of the world's most sought-after players at their disposal. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is rightly regarded as one of football's top custodians. The 28-year-old has helped Bayern Munich to win the Champions League, the Bundesliga, the German Cup and the Club World Cup, and Opta tell us that no keeper in Germany had a better save percentage (80%) this season. He commands his box superbly, and has largely eradicated his tendency to make rash decisions. His shoulder injury is expected to clear up before the opening game against Portugal.
Captain Philipp Lahm is on track to recover from an ankle injury he sustained in the German Cup final, and he is vital to Germany's progress. Bayern boss Pep Guardiola has described the 30-year-old as the most intelligent player he has ever worked with, which is some compliment when you consider the glittering array of talent Guardiola has coached. Lahm is a great leader, has boundless energy, passes accurately, is a strong tackler, and is more creative than some give him credit for. Lahm has seamlessly adapted to a new role as a central midfielder this season, but may well revert to his more familiar position of right-back for Germany. Much will depend on the injury situation in central midfield - Bastian Schweinsteiger has struggled with a series of problems, while Lars Bender and Ilkay Gundogan are both sidelined.
One man who may step into the midfield breach is Sami Khedira. Despite a six-month lay-off with a serious knee injury, Khedira returned to start the Champions League final, helping Real Madrid to be crowned as European champions for the tenth time. He needs more match practice to be back to his best, but he is fresh, and his ball-winning ability could provide an important platform for the more creative players in front of him.
Germany have lots of firepower. Borussia Dortmund forward Marco Reus finished the season in great form, was named Bundesliga Player of the Year by his fellow professionals, and ended up with 23 goals and 17 assists in all competitions.
Mesut Ozil and Mario Gotze had fluctuating seasons at club level but can still unlock elite defences, while Thomas Muller's excellent movement and sheer will to win make him a genuine goal threat.
36-year-old warhorse Miroslav Klose is just one goal short of Ronaldo's World Cup Finals record of 15, but it remains to be seen whether recent injuries will restrict his involvement.
Talking Point
There have been plenty of column inches devoted to Germany's persistent injury woes, but several off-field incidents have also caught the eye. Manager Low was recently banned from driving because of persistent speeding offences, while utility player Kevin Grosskreutz has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. First he was accused of throwing a kebab at a Cologne fan on a night out (it's not known if Joe Kinnear then tried to sign the kebab), and he was then spotted urinating in a hotel lobby after Dortmund's German Cup final defeat to Bayern Munich.
Just a few days ago, Schalke team-mates Benedikt Howedes and Julian Draxler were passengers in a car accident. They were taking part in a promotional event alongside F1 star Nico Rosberg, and one of the cars in the shoot (driven by DTM star Pascal Wehrlein) injured two pedestrians who weren't expected to be on a closed course. The accident is still being investigated, and although the players involved weren't hurt, it would be surprising if such a serious incident didn't have some kind of impact on the squad.
Best Bet
Germany are currently 7.413/2 in the Winner market, with only Brazil and Argentina a shorter price. They are 1.654/6 to win Group G, with Portugal, Ghana and the USA their opponents. That's a bit too short for my liking, as much depends on that opening game against Paulo Bento's men. If Cristiano Ronaldo is on top form (I'm thinking of that ridiculous hat-trick against Sweden), then Germany's fragile rearguard will be sorely tested.
However, even if Germany make a slow start, they will be too strong for Ghana and the USA. Once they are in the knockout stage, that's when they really come into their own. It's hard to ignore Germany's recent tournament record, as they have reached the semi-finals in the last three World Cups and the last two European Championships. They have a strong squad bristling with attacking talent, and despite doubts over their defensive solidity, I think their price of 2.265/4 to reach the semi-finals is perfectly reasonable.
Value Bet
Given Marco Reus' superb end to the domestic season, and the fact that he was the second-highest scorer in European qualifying with seven goals, I'm surprised to see him trading at 65.064/1 in the Golden Boot Award (top scorer - the market goes to assists in the event of a dead heat) market. I'd expect him to start for Germany ahead of Lukas Podolski on the left of the attack, and a scoring start to the tournament will see that price plummet.
Thomas Muller scored five goals to win the Golden Boot in South Africa in 2010, and he's also a hefty price at 36.035/1 to top the scoring charts.
Kevin is a Bundesliga commentator for talkSPORT and TuneIn Radio. You can follow him on Twitter @kevinhatchard
Did You Know?
Germany scored more goals than any other team during the European qualification phase (36), also recording the best minutes-per-goal rate (one every 25 minutes).
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