World Cup 2014 Team Guide: Italy

Mario Balotelli: Well suited to tournament football

Italy are notoriously slow starters but regular Serie A columnist Dave Farrar is confident Prandelli's men can top Group D ahead of England and Uruguay...

Road to Brazil

I'm not sure that Italy's qualification route told us a great deal about how we can expect the Azzurri to perform in Brazil. At times they seemed to sleepwalk through a particularly weak Group B, remaining unbeaten, yet with a hint of a stutter they drew in Denmark, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, before being held at home by Armenia on the final day. Italy have never performed at their best against weak opposition, though, and the masters of doing just enough were at it again in this campaign, with late goals a feature, and Mario Balotelli leading the way with five of them. As if we needed reminding, he needs to be at his best for Italy to have a successful World Cup. 

The Manager

Not too many people manage to pull off the trick of being popular with EVERY set of football fans within a country, but Cesare Prandelli is a unifying figure in Italian football. He has bundles of class, huge public sympathy, and his stand against prejudice of all kinds was a long time coming, and has been well received. Tactically, he is smart, and plays against Italian stereotype. Not gung-ho, but he likes to play attractive and stylish passing football, patented in the youth academy at Atalanta and in his successful time with Fiorentina. If you fancy Italy, then the new contract that he has signed until the end of Euro 2016 gives him and the squad encouraging stability.  

And remember that Prandelli took the ashes of a team that failed miserably at the last World Cup, and refreshed the squad to such an extent that they made it to the final of Euro 2012. They are serious players in Brazil, and it's all down to Prandelli. 

Key Men

Balotelli has played most of his best football under Prandelli, who is an excellent man manager, and his performances in Euro 2012 show that he can be a top class international centre forward. Tournament football appears to suit Balotelli, who can lose focus and concentration during the course of a domestic season, and even though his form has been a little patchy, he was still Italy's top scorer in qualifying.  He managed 14 goals for a dreadful Milan this season, but it's worrying that he scored only once in his last seven games. Don't be surprised, though, if Balotelli is motivated by the eyes of the world and bounces right back to form. For all the form of Ciro Immobile, it's right that Balotelli starts as favourite to be Italy's top scorer at the tournament.  

Ciro Immobile hasn't exactly come from nowhere to be part of Prandelli's squad, but the Torino forward is a prime example of a player whose form for his club made him impossible to ignore. Nine goals in his last eight games of the season made a season total of 22, which was enough to finish as capocannoniere and earn him a place in Brazil. For those looking for a tournament Top Scorer theme, it's worth pointing out that neither Paolo Rossi nor Toto Schillaci finished top of the tree domestically before they enjoyed World Cup success, but Immobile has every chance of becoming a big noise this summer, and he and Colombia's Adrian Ramos should prove to be a fabulous partnership for Dortmund next season. 

Andrea Pirlo will doubtless be the focus of much tedious television analysis before Italy's game against England. I keep hearing the mantra that if you "stop Pirlo then you stop Italy" and that if you press Pirlo when in possession then his game will somehow fall apart. That's a simplistic reading of things, as Pirlo is often put under pressure and yet emerges as Juve's star man.

His powers are waning at the age of 35, but he is still one of the keys to Italy's chances. He will set the tempo of their play, and don't underestimate his relationship with the Juventus back three behind him. If Pirlo IS pressured, then expect to see Leanardo Bonucci step beyond him and show his range of passing. Because of his tactical astuteness, and relationship with his club colleagues, Pirlo's role within the side is far more complex than many would have you believe. And he's not as easy to stop as some would have you believe. 

Talking Point

For a long time, Gigi Buffon was an automatic first choice as the Goalkeeper in anyone's World XI. This season, though, the great man has looked human, and while it may seem churlish to criticise a man whose defence let in only 23 goals this season, he needs to rediscover his form for Italy to progress here. His judgement and his handling have always been his best attributes, and yet both have been questionable this season.  As someone whose key saves at big moments were a huge factor in Italy winning the 2006 tournament, I just hope that it's not a Buffon error which costs them this time. 

Best Bet

I think that Italy will progress from their Group, largely because they are the best and most settled team in it, and 2.6613/8 looks a fair price for them to win Group D and give themselves a chance in the knockout stages. There's obviously a worry about Italy starting slowly as they often can, but I think that they have a big chance of beating England and Costa Rica and putting themselves in pole position ahead of their potentially tricky game against Uruguay. 

Value Bet

For all that I say about Immobile not necessarily being the new Schillaci/Rossi, a goalscorer of his ability shouldn't be starting the tournament at 200.0199/1 and bigger to win the Golden Boot. It's a bit of a flyer, of course it is, as Immobile is by no means certain to start. But if Italy can make it to the semi-finals at least, then he will have chances to match the six goals that both Schillaci and Rossi scored at their World Cups, and if Immobile has proved one thing this season, it's that he can take chances. 

Did You Know?

Only Ukraine (13), England and Romania (12) saw more individuals score for them in qualification than Italy (11), although only three players scored two or more.